NHS waiting list may not be cleared until 2030 without ‘deeper and faster' reforms, Tony Blair Institute warn

Asia's Tech News Daily

The NHS waiting list backlog caused by the pandemic may not be cleared until the end of this decade unless the government carries out “deeper and faster” reforms than it has already set out, a major paper by the Tony Blair Institute says.

Boris Johnson last month unveiled plans to increase capacity in the health service to 130 per cent of pre-pandemic levels to reduce the millions waiting for treatment delayed due to covid.

But modelling by the former Prime Minister’s organisation shows this cannot be achieved by 2025 at the earliest, or as many as five years later if coronavirus continues to put pressure on the NHS, without radical reform.

It says the looming crisis coming this winter will not be a one-off because of the combination of covid, the waiting list backlog and staff shortages.

The paper, which has the support of former health secretaries Jeremy Hunt and Alan Milburn, puts forward what it says is a “credible plan to help the NHS to recover from Covid-19 and put it on a sustainable footing will be key to the next general election”.

The proposed reforms include an emergency plan to use private sector beds for NHS patients to start to clear the backlog in the short-term, and prioritise more urgent waiting list cases over routine surgeries.

In the long-term, the authors suggest deeper reforms including decentralisation of services like diagnostics, with more patients carrying out tests for illnesses at home, which could be more publicly acceptable due to the increasing use of self-administered covid lateral flow tests.

A proportion of the 40 new hospitals the Prime Minister has pledged by 2030 should be “smart hospitals”, which use more artificial intelligence and digitisation of records.

Medicine should shift to become more preventative and personalised, with individuals able to access their own genomic sequencing giving them greater autonomy over their own health, and use wearable technology to monitor things like blood pressure.

Scans and other diagnosis tools could be outsourced to countries with lower pressures on their health systems, such as New Zealand or Australia.

Modelling by the institute suggests that peak flu admissions during January 2022 could plausibly exceed 10 per cent of general hospital beds and 15 to 20 per cent of intensive care beds in a worst-case scenario. 

“Even without a major Covid-19 winter surge, therefore, the NHS could easily be reduced to 70 per cent capacity or less, based on expected Covid and flu trends,” the authors say.

In May 2021 there were more than five million people waiting for routine operations and procedures in England, but ministers have warned that the backlog could grow to 13 million.

If additional capacity was increased to 110 per cent of 2019 levels next year and by 130 per cent by 2024, waiting lists would be reduced to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, the paper says.

By Daniel Sleat, head of research at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change

The NHS is in the midst of a deep and multi-faceted crisis. It faces the two interconnected challenges of the impact of Covid-19, as well as the underlying structural problems of perennial underfunding, short staffing, and an increasingly ageing population. 

The Government has set out plans to support the service through what is being described as a potential “winter crisis”. These plans fall short of what is required. The NHS faces a crisis not just of one season, but to its long-term future.

Modelling by the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) shows that without further and faster action by Government the backlog of cases exacerbated by Covid will be with us for many years. 

We believe the solution to this lies in partnering with the private sector to access extra capacity to work through the backlog. From conversations with independent sector providers we understand such a partnership is not only feasible but would allow the NHS to work through waiting lists far faster than currently forecast. 

Extra steps also need to be taken to lift the burden on the service, including embracing the short-term opportunities that technology can offer through online services, decentralised diagnostics, artificial intelligence and robotics.

Significant numbers of people are going private for care. Even more may end up doing so if the NHS isn’t able to deliver for the public. The immediate backlog of cases and underlying systemic challenges put this capability at risk. It is time for bold action to save our health system.

But a bad covid and flu season this winter could push this recovery back to 2025. Continued pressure from covid during the next two years could delay the recovery even further to the end of 2025, and if the burden of covid remains more permanent, as an annual threat in addition to flu, then the waiting list would not return to pre-pandemic levels until the late 2020s.

Daniel Sleat, one of the report authors, said: “The NHS is in the midst of a deep and multi-faceted crisis. It faces the two interconnected challenges of the impact of Covid-19, as well as the underlying structural problems of perennial underfunding, staffing, chronic illnesses and an ageing population. 

“The Government has set out plans to support the service through what is being described as a potential ‘winter crisis’. These plans fall short of what is required. The NHS faces a crisis not of one season, but to its long-term future.”

Internet Explorer Channel Network
Asia's Tech News Daily
News Related

OTHER NEWS

Conte could rectify Levy's grave £32m mistake at Spurs, Mourinho will be laughing - opinion

© Provided by Football FanCast Spurs winger Steven Bergwijn during warm up against Chelsea Steven Bergwijn could leave Tottenham Hotspur this January after a fresh update emerged this week… What’s ... Read more »

Buendia role explained, on the attack and snowball fights - things spotted in latest Aston Villa training session

Bodymoor Heath was a winter wonderland as Aston Villa ramped up their preparations to host Premier League champions Manchester City at Villa Park on Wednesday night (8.15pm kick-off). Off the ... Read more »

Pension fund charge cap of 0.75% could be eased

© Provided by This Is Money MailOnline logo Workers might have to fork out more than 0.75 per cent to save into pension funds under plans to open them up ... Read more »

'Who's cutting the onions?', 'Brilliant', 'Amazing' - Many Wolves fans blown away by club tweet

Some Wolves supporters have been sharing their joy over the progress Raul Jimenez has made one year after suffering a life-threatening head injury. © Provided by Transfer Tavern Raul Jimenez ... Read more »

'Some positivity at last' - Many WBA fans buzz over 'Christmas present'

A number of West Bromwich Albion fans have expressed their delight after seeing a video of Dara O’Shea as he recovers from injury. © Provided by This is Futbol Dara ... Read more »

Manchester United confident Ralf Rangnick will be in charge for Crystal Palace game

Manchester United are expecting Ralf Rangnick to be in the dugout for Sunday’s Premier League game against Crystal Palace. The German was confirmed as interim manager until the end of ... Read more »

"They were in for him before" - Journalist drops big WHUFC claim on "hugely expensive" 6 ft 1 ace

Journalist Paul Brown doesn’t expect West Ham to revisit their interest in Burnley defender James Tarkowski in January. © GiveMeSport p1flm2ohf01jo2ak6oko40t117sb.jpg The Hammers have tried to sign the centre-back, valued ... Read more »

'How?', 'We are doomed' - Many Everton fans bemoan pre-Merseyside derby team news update

Rafael Benitez won’t be able to call upon any returnees for Everton’s Merseyside derby clash with Liverpool on Wednesday night. © Provided by Transfer Tavern Dominic Calvert-Lewin Everton The Spaniard ... Read more »

Thomas Frank not expecting touchline confrontation with Antonio Conte

Brentford head coach Thomas Frank is not expecting any touchline confrontation with Tottenham boss Antonio Conte on Thursday – as long as the Italian “behaves”. © PA Wire Thomas Frank ... Read more »

Man City XI vs Aston Villa: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news and injury latest for Premier League

© ES Composite ManCityPredictedXIManagerv1.jpg Pep Guardiola admitted his side are in worrying situation with the number of injuries they have ahead of their trip to face Aston Villa. City will ... Read more »

England Women vs Latvia Women, World Cup qualifier: live score, team news and latest updates

© Getty Images England Women vs Latvia Women World Cup qualifier live score latest updates – Getty Images England vs Latvia kicks off at 7pm and is on ITV4 The ... Read more »

Pundits agree on Ronaldo change Rangnick should make at Man Utd

© PA Images Ronaldo was dropped at Chelsea by Michael Carrick Manchester United interim boss Ralf Rangnick has been urged to move Cristiano Ronaldo to a new position for Manchester ... Read more »

How South African scientists spotted the Omicron COVID variant

1 / 2How South African scientists spotted the Omicron COVID variantFILE PHOTO: Passengers queue to get a PCR test against COVID-19 before traveling on international flights, at O.R. Tambo International ... Read more »

President of Belarus offers to host Russian nuclear weapons

1 / 3Belarus PresidentBelarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaks during his interview with Russia’s Rossiya Segodnya agency, also known as Sputnik, news agency head Dmitry Kiselev in Minsk, Belarus, Monday, Nov. ... Read more »

Chain reaction: Canadian MP complains about minister's video bike backdrop

© Provided by The Guardian Photograph: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock A conservative Canadian MP has accused the country’s environment minister of breaching parliamentary protocol after his bicycle appeared on screen during a ... Read more »

Second Omicron case confirmed in Spain, two more suspected

FILE PHOTO: A man walks past the Bank of Spain building in Barcelona MADRID (Reuters) – Spain detected a second case of the Omicron coronavirus variant on Tuesday and expects ... Read more »

Far-right TV pundit Éric Zemmour to run for French presidency

© Provided by The Guardian Photograph: Thomas Samson/AFP/Getty Images Éric Zemmour, a controversial French far-right TV pundit who has convictions for inciting racial hatred, has declared he will run for ... Read more »

Dormouse bridge across railway line could help save endangered species

© Provided by The Guardian Photograph: Blickwinkel/Alamy Measuring 12 metres long and just 30cm wide, it’s a bridge of miniature proportions. But it is hoped that the square metal tube ... Read more »

Province gives Waterloo barbecue manufacturer $1 million as part of plan to create 158 jobs

Ontario has given to $1 million to a Waterloo barbecue manufacturer in an effort expected to create 158 jobs. © THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld Vic Fedeli speaks with media following ... Read more »

Kentucky man gets 20 years in prison after investigators find child porn, bombs, guns

A Frankfort man has been sentenced to 20 years in federal prison after admitting to having child porn and being a felon in possession of guns and explosives. Joshua James ... Read more »

Money hang-ups from childhood can linger long into adulthood

© Provided by The Canadian Press TORONTO — Steph Davidson grew up with two sets of parents who approached their finances from opposite ends of the spectrum.  One set of ... Read more »

Former Temple U business dean convicted in rankings scandal

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — A jury convicted the former dean of Temple University's business school on charges related to a scheme to falsely boost the school's rankings. The jury deliberated for ... Read more »

Video: REVEALED: Omicron was in the Netherlands five days BEFORE South Africa alerted the world about it 

Read more »

UAE to sign major deals during French president's visit - Emirati official

© Reuters/POOL Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser of UAE’s President, speaks during a joint news conference with Cypriot Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides, Greece’s Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias and Israeli Foreign Minister ... Read more »

Florida mother reveals her husband KNOWINGLY infected her with HIV after keeping his diagnosis secret for five years - and she only found out she was positive after getting pregnant with his TWINS

Renee Burgess, 38, from Jacksonville, Florida, revealed that she was with the man for half a decade and had no idea he was HIV positive He kept it a secret from her until he was forced to come clean after she became pregnant with twins and discovered that she was infected in 2007He later revealed that he knew he had the disease since 2002, and admitted to cheating on her with other women and men throughout their marriage She later divorced the man and pressed charges on him for knowingly infecting her. He pled guilty and was sentenced to five years in prisonRenee said the stress of what happened caused her to go into premature labor, and she gave birth to the twins four months early; they are HIV negative Read more »

Get £100 off a REDUIT skin and hair device, as loved by Victoria Beckham

© Provided by Hello! reduit-header Party season is in full-swing, and we’re always on the lookout for new and exciting ways to improve our hair and skincare routines. That’s why ... Read more »

Video: 'How can they keep him on?' Even liberal pundits are stunned that Chris Cuomo STILL has CNN job after documents revealed how he conspired with 'mean girl' aide Melissa DeRosa to undermine his brother's sex pest accusers

Read more »

Ex-Trump aide Meadows cooperating with House Jan. 6 panel

© Provided by Associated Press Capitol Breach Subpoenas Explainer WASHINGTON (AP) — Mark Meadows, Donald Trump’s former chief of staff, is cooperating with a House panel investigating the Jan. 6 ... Read more »

Video: Don't meow-ve! Moment cat owner smashes a hole in house wall to rescue his missing pet 

Read more »

Want to get your children to eat their broccoli? SMILE! Kids who watch adults eat with positive facial expressions consume more than DOUBLE the amount of vegetables, study claims

Psychologists recruited 111 British kids aged 4–6 and played them each a videoOne showed an adult happily eating raw broccoli and another with a neutral faceThe final video was used as a control and had content that was not food relatedKids shown an adult enthusiastically eating broccoli ate an average of 11 g of itHowever, those shown the control video only ate 5 g of the unpopular vegetable   Read more »

Sources differ on Rudiger contract plans, but agree on bad news for Chelsea

© PA Images Antonio Rudiger, Chelsea centre-half Two sources have offered polar opposite views on whether Antonio Rudiger intends to sign a new Chelsea contract, though they did find agreement ... Read more »

Alberta's projected deficit drops to $5.8 billion, buoyed largely by global energy price spike

© Provided by Edmonton Journal Finance Minister Travis Toews delivers the 2021 Alberta provincial budget at the Alberta legislature in Edmonton on Feb. 25, 2021. Alberta’s projected deficit for this ... Read more »

'Bus ride to nowhere' offers Hong Kongers a place to snooze for five hours

The hustle and bustle of life has sparked innovative solutions for the sleepy residents of Hong Kong. A tour bus company says it has the remedy for those having trouble ... Read more »

New York to open supervised injection sites in bid to curb overdose deaths

Two supervised injection sites could be open as soon as Tuesday in Manhattan to combat a sharp increase in overdose deaths in New York City. © Provided by The Guardian ... Read more »

Scotiabank reports Q4 profit up, raises dividend and accelerates digital shift

TORONTO — Scotiabank became the first big bank to raise its dividend since restrictions on doing so were lifted as it kicked off a week of bank earnings Tuesday.  © ... Read more »

2021 Streamys Will Be Hosted by Larray: Watch Trailer to See What to Expect

© ET Online The Streamy Awards are back! YouTube’s annual awards show is marking its 11th year as the creator community’s biggest night, with even more awards to dole out to ... Read more »

NuFACE Cyber Monday Sale Extended: Last Day to Get 35% Off Devices, Serums, Gift Sets and More

© NuFACE Each product has been independently selected by our editorial team. We may receive commissions from some links to products on this page. Promotions are subject to availability and ... Read more »

A world championship-winning US sprinter who raced with Carl Lewis was shot dead near his home in Alabama

© Bettmann / Contributor/Getty Images King (second from left) was a member of the record-breaking team in 1983. Bettmann / Contributor/Getty Images Emmit King, who won relay gold at the ... Read more »

How Virgin and O2 customers can get FREE McDonald's food from tomorrow

IF you're an O2 or Virgin Media customer then you will be able to get FREE McDonald's food – starting from tomorrow. O2 Priority and Virgin Media broadband customers can ... Read more »

Son admits ‘I've killed mum and her partner…I can't stop the hatred' in voicemails to friends and family after ‘murder'

A JURY today heard voicemails left by a killer son just minutes after knifing his mum and her millionaire partner. Thomas Schreiber 35, is accused of the murder of Sir ... Read more »
On free-english-test.com you will find lots of free English exam practice materials to help you improve your English skills: grammar, listening, reading, writing, ielts, toeic