CNBC Daily Open: Is record Black Friday sales spike a false dawn?

black friday, cnbc daily open: is record black friday sales spike a false dawn?

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This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Mixed moves
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Tuesday after U.S. stocks fell the day before as traders took a breather following a four-week winning streak for major averages. Oil prices edged down after Qatar said the truce between Israel and Hamas had been extended by two more days. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.1%, while Korea’s KOSPI finished up 1.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down nearly 1% in mid-afternoon trade, while the CSI300, which tracks the biggest mainland-listed blue chips, was almost flat.

Shein IPO
Fast-fashion retailer Shein has confidentially filed to go public in the U.S. and is moving ahead with its long-awaited IPO, CNBC has learned. Founded in China, Shein was last valued at $66 billion and could be ready to start trading on the public markets as soon as 2024, people familiar with the matter told CNBC on Monday.

‘Zero day’ bets boom
The rapid growth in short-dated options that have become popular with hedge funds as well as retail traders is now spreading beyond stocks to other asset classes. The Nasdaq last week launched new two-week options contracts that expire on Wednesdays based on a series of exchange-traded products.

Cryptic no more?
The crypto industry can finally close the chapter on a litany of scandals and problems after Binance was hit with a historic settlement by the U.S. Department of Justice, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said Monday. The government accused Binance of violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act and of breaching sanctions on Iran. Armstrong pushed back on the suggestion that crypto was mainly used for nefarious purposes such as fraud, money laundering and terrorist financing, a common refrain from financial firms that have avoided jumping into the space due to compliance concerns.

[PRO] Preparing for volatility
The investment case for India is hard to argue with, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley — but they warn that upcoming elections with “potential binary outcomes sets the market up for volatility” and name their top stocks as India prepares to head to the polls in March.

The bottom line

The post-Thanksgiving shopping season numbers are eye-popping.

Black Friday online spending reached a record $9.8 billion in the U.S., up 7.5% from a year earlier, according to Adobe Analytics. Online sales on Cyber Weekend, the days between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, surged 7.7% to $10.3 billion. Cyber Monday sales are expected to have hit $12.4 billion, making it the biggest U.S. online shopping day of the year, according to Adobe.

Bumper sales came as a boon for many e-commerce-focused retailers and boosted their shares Monday.

But these spending rates also run somewhat counter to the cautious earnings guidance by the likes of toymakers Hasbro and Mattel during their third quarter earnings late October.

A slew of recent economic indicators also appear to be pointing to U.S. consumers running out of excess cash, while household savings are coming under pressure.

So, shouldn’t spending be weaker? What does this then say of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes on the broader economy? Or is it too much to read based on one data point?

The fine print may offer some clues.

The strong post-Thanksgiving retail figures have been driven by consumers turning to buy-now-pay-later features as a way to stretch their wallets against the backdrop of still-high prices. Buy-now-pay-later services such as Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay drove $5.9 billion in online spending between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23, up 13.4% from last year, according to Adobe.

Economic data due later this week should also offer more insight. The consumer confidence report is slated for Tuesday, while the personal consumption expenditures price index is scheduled to be released on Thursday.

— CNBC’s Annie Palmer contributed to this report.

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