Wells Fargo Championship picks 2024: Why we're all in on Sahith Theegala
HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SOUTH CAROLINA – APRIL 21: Sahith Theegala reacts after making a birdie on the ninth hole during the final round of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links on April 21, 2024 in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Last week, we told you longshots SZN was back on at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and Taylor Pendrith proved us correct. This week, even without Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg in the field, we’ve got ourselves a signature event in the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, a course that has a knack for producing some signature winners over the years.
With that in mind, longshots SZN is over (for now), and our experts are honing in on the top of the odds board to find this week’s winner.
Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Memorial Park, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Byeong Hun An (45-1, BetMGM) — It’s about time Ben gets his PGA Tour win. This is the perfect place for it with his elite ball-striking. He’s put himself in these situations enough … he’s ready.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Hideki Matsuyama (35-1, FanDuel) — The last we saw Hideki he was the popular pick to be the one to potentially knock off Scheffler at Augusta. He didn’t. However, if he was able to retain a modicum of his previous form, Quail Hollow, the site of his first real major collapse, is a perfect venue to notch win No. 2 on the season.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Sahith Theegala (28-1, FanDuel) — Theegala flashes his upside often, and his added distance pairs well with his great iron play and putting. Last year, he finished just T-56 at the event but gained strokes with his approach play and putter, so I think he sets up well this week.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Sahith Theegala (28-1, FanDuel) — We have witnessed five signature events in 2024. Sahith Theegala has two runners-up and a sixth in those five starts. You can also throw in a ninth at The Players. The powerful Pepperdine alumni is a great putter and short-game aficionado. In his last five starts, he’s gaining over three strokes (on average) with his flat stick against the field. Putting is a huge key at Quail Hollow, but so is ball-striking. In those same five starts, Sahith is gaining another three strokes (on average) tee-to-green. The perfect combination needed to capture career win No. 2 at Quail Hollow.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Tony Finau (35-1, FanDuel) — Finau hasn’t quite gotten the credit for how good his ball-striking has been lately. He’s third in this field this year in SG/approach, per RickRunGood.com, and he’s sixth in SG/total. Yet he’s outside the top 10 on the odds board at all books. This is the type of huge ballpark where he should thrive—his off-the-tee game should thrive, and his approach play is as good as it has been all year, he should be in the mix.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Will Zalatoris (40-1, FanDuel) — As Zalatoris said himself last week, his back just needed a little rest and recovery, hence the precautionary WD. Was he really going to win a birdie-fest anyway? Quail Hollow should be much more suited to his strengths, which are hitting fairways and greens and making just enough putts to finish in that 10-to-15 under range. The tougher the golf course, the more I like Willy Z’s chances. With a full week off to heal up, I expect him to come out firing.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Justin Thomas (25-1, FanDuel) — Justin Thomas displayed significant strides in his last start at the RBC Heritage, gaining strokes in all four major categories and putting together his best putting performance of the season. Confidence in that aspect of his game has been the missing piece for Thomas all year, and now he returns to the site of his first major victory. Outside of winning the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, Thomas has four other top-30 finishes at this event and has gained strokes in both ball-striking categories every single time he’s teed it up here.
Past results: The boys are officially HOT. Following Andy Lack’s correct prediction of Stephan Jager’s victory at the Houston Open (50-1), three of our experts—Stephen Hennessey, Pat Mayo and our anonymous caddie—hit on Akshay Bhatia (65-1) at the Valero Texas Open. That’s now our biggest hit of 2024, and it gives Mayo and our anonymous caddie their second wins of the year. Let’s keep it rolling in Charlotte.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
Wells Fargo Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Jake Knapp (125-1, Bet365) — Don’t get off Knapp after his struggles on the weekend. He hits it such a long way, which is important this week with the newly resurfaced greens being so firm.
Mayo: Jake Knapp (125-1, Bet365) — The first time Knapp went into Sunday with a lead he struggled out of the gate but kept it together enough to secure his first win. The second time, last week, the struggles just continued too long to recover. Still, he followed up his Mexico victory with another great performance at PGA National the next week. There’s no reason to shy away at Quail Hollow, a course which should allow him to go full send with his driver as often as he wants. He’s clearly in good form, may as well ride it at an excellent course fit.
Gdula: Harris English (60-1, FanDuel) — English was T-3 here a year ago and can gain distance and putting on virtually any field when he’s on. The main issue for him is the irons, which are just average for a field like this one. With that said, he has a combo of course form and recent form that draws me in at 60-1.
Stewart: Denny McCarthy (70-1, FanDuel) — Our winner this week is going to be an athlete. Denny McCarthy can shoot 3s and make putts from anywhere. McCarthy has been competitive in signature events before on very tough golf courses. He keeps close to the contenders because he leads the field in short game and putting. He finished eighth here last year and gained nearly nine strokes on the field with his flat stick. We know he’s been rolling it well and not far from a breakthrough win. Quail Hollow launched Wyndham, Rickie, Max, and Rory. Denny will get it done and be the next dynamic Wells winner.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Byeong Hun An (45-1, BetMGM) — Benny An reminds me a bit of Wyndham Clark’s form coming into the Wells Fargo last year. I’m not sure if a major is in Benny’s future this year, but he keeps playing great—coming off a T-4 last week in Texas—and he putted great at TPC Craig Ranch, which any Benny An backer knows is the key to catching fire with Benny. He’s been one of the best players in the signature events all year, and I love his elite off-the-tee game for Quail Hollow.
Powers, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (80-1, BetMGM) — Glover’s iron play is literally always good, but it wasn’t resulting in great finishes early this year. That has changed of late, with the former U.S. Open winner piling up four consecutive top-33 finishes, including a 20th at the Masters. Elite iron players who can’t putt have fared quite well at Quail Hollow—Glover among them (he won here in 2011). Trending nicely, good course history, and it’s not like he’s scared to take down a signature field. He did it last summer at St. Jude.
Lack: Sam Burns (50-1, BetMGM) — Any time a player of Sam Burns’ caliber crosses the 50-1 threshold, I always have interest. I know that Burns welcomed his first child recently, but he would not be the first PGA Tour player to experience an uptick in performances after a healthy dose of perspective. I will happily buy low on the five-time PGA Tour winner on a Bermudagrass golf course that emphasizes power off the tee.
Wells Fargo Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Viktor Hovland (25-1, DraftKings) — The time off is a real concern. It’s clear he’s searching to be firing on all aspects of his game heading into this crucial stretch of the season. The LIV rumors seem strong, but from what I hear, he doesn’t have interest, so they’ll really have to pay him. Regardless, I can’t see him winning after this long stretch off post-Masters.
Mayo: Jordan Spieth (40-1, DraftKings) — Spieth a fade until he isn’t terrible at a tournament.
Gdula: Cameron Young (25-1, FanDuel) — Young is part of a big third tier of favorites, and I just would rather go with the other names in that range. The short game is poor, and the putting splits suggest he’s not going to heat up any time soon.
Stewart: Viktor Hovland (25-1, DraftKings) — Monday’s Odds Drop editorial covered this at length. Viktor Hovland has one top-20 result this year. The reigning FedEx Cup champion has been through a carousel of coaches, and this is his first start since the 81 and missed cut at the Masters. He opened at 22-1 and keeps climbing. Some boards already have him in the 30s.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (25-1, DraftKings) — This is the type of fade I hope I’m wrong about. Hovland’s elite ball-striking should really translate to Quail Hollow, but in his past five events, he’s lost strokes to the field tee to green. It’s a definite wait-and-see situation with Hov.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sahith Theegala (25-1, BetMGM) — I’m a huge Sahith Theegala guy, but I’m going to have to pump the brakes on him at sub-30-1. His propensity for the off-the-planet tee shot scares me at a tree-lined course with heavy rough like Quail Hollow.
Lack: Tommy Fleetwood (25-1, DraftKings) — There is no universe where Tommy Fleetwood should be 25-1 at a signature event, even one that is lacking Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg. The Englishman is still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, and while he has performed well at Quail Hollow in the past, Fleetwood is coming off a disappointing performance at the RBC Heritage where he lost over five strokes on approach.
Wells Fargo Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Byeong Hun An (-120) over Jordan Spieth (DraftKings) — You read above why I love Benny An. And I like playing against Jordan—he’s got a lot of extra stuff going on with the policy board and traveling with two young kids. Plus, the extra mental hurdle of next week of trying to complete the next step of the Grand Slam.
Mayo: Sahith Theegala (-110) over Viktor Hovland (Bet365) — Until Viktor proves he won’t chip himself out of contention, the floor of Theegala at this point of the season is an auto-bet.
Gdula: Adam Schenk (-110) over Rickie Fowler (FanDuel) — Schenk is longer off the tee and a better putter than Fowler, who has a marginal edge in iron play over the last 50 rounds. My model views Schenk as a big favorite in this matchup.
Stewart: Cameron Young (+100) over Collin Morikawa (DraftKings) — Collin Morikawa’s mini comeback at Augusta National and Harbour Town was a touch of smoke and mirrors. Morikawa missed the cut here last year and has lost strokes on approach in five straight starts. Cameron Young was built for ball parks like Quail Hollow. His off-the-tee play is a huge advantage, and he continues to challenge at major championship venues. Young uses his ball-striking to beat Collin in Charlotte.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (-139) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Bet365) — Scott has a huge off-the-tee advantage over the South African in this matchup, which is big at Quail Hollow. Scott had a nice week at TPC Craig Ranch, whereas Bezuidenhout withdrew last week—so I think this edge might be bigger than the book is accounting for.
Powers, Golf Digest: Will Zalatoris (+105) over Tony Finau (DraftKings) — Finau has undoubtedly turned it around of late but I’m just very high on Zalatoris this week. Elite player at plus odds is something I’ll never pass up.
Lack: Corey Conners (-130) over Tom Hoge (DraftKings) — This price is simply far too short on a matchup between two players with different skill levels. Both Corey Conners and Tom Hoge are elite iron players who leave a lot to be desired on and around the greens. Yet the differentiating factor remains how much better of a driver that Conners is. Hoge will be tremendously behind the eight ball off the tee at Quail Hollow, and with zero finishes in the top 40 in five appearances at this golf course, I have little faith he figures it out now.
Matchup Results from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Lack: 1 for 1 (An (+100) over Day); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Lower (-115) over K. Yu); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (An (-110) over M.W. Lee); Powers: VOID (S. Im (pre-tourney WD) over T. Kim); Mayo: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 12-5-1 (up 6.74 units); Lack 11-6-1 (up 4.06 units); Caddie: 11-6-0 (up 3.68 units); Powers: 8-7-2 (up 1.08 units); Gdula: 9-7-2 (up 0.87 units); Hennessey: 8-7-3 (down 0.01 units); Stewart: 8-10-0 (down 2.72 units)
Wells Fargo Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Alex Noren (+360, FanDuel) — I love how Noren’s game is trending. He’s got the length, he’s got the moxie and he’s got the short game. It should be another great week at Quail Hollow.
Mayo: Sahith Theegala (+260, Bet365) — With four top 10s in his past seven starts, Theegala simply continues to give himself a chance to win most weeks come Sunday. It hasn’t happened since Napa in the Fall, but merely through attrition, he’ll get across the finish line again soon. In a tournament which has seen many breakthroughs for young stars over the years, it may just be Theegala’s week.
Gdula: Russell Henley (+400, FanDuel) — Henley isn’t long off the tee and hasn’t historically played the course well, but that’s leading to value because the 4-1 number doesn’t quite reflect his top-10 potential based on the current form being where it is.
Stewart: Wyndham Clark (+175, DraftKings) — Wyndham Clark was ranked 80th in the world when he won at Wells Fargo as an 80-1 longshot. He’s now ranked third in the OWGR and is here to defend without Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Ãberg in the field. His skill set matched Quail Hollow last year and now he is a much better player. Take the defending champion and the 10 places.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (+335, BetRivers) — It seems like everyone is being lured into the Cameron Young outright bet, which I might be by the end of the week. But a top-10 in a 69-person field at these odds seem like a safe way to play our ball-striking champ.
Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (+335, BetRivers) — Maybe this is the way we should have been betting Cam Y all along. Sooner or later, he will bag one, but instead of continuing to chase that, let’s just try to win a little coin on him.
Lack: Tony Finau (+300, DraftKings) — It is not coincidence that Tony Finau’s best performances of the year have come on long, driver-heavy golf courses that place a heavy emphasis on long-iron play. Finau finished sixth at Torrey Pines and runner-up at Memorial Park, and Quail Hollow fits a similar billing of a bigger ballpark that will allow the 34-year-old to overpower this course with his overall tee-to-green skill.
Top-10 results from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Caddie: VOID (S. Im pre-tourney WD); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 4 for 18 (up 1.65 units); Caddie: 4 for 17 (up 0.35 units); Mayo: 3 for 18 (down 2 units); Lack: 4 for 18 (down 3.45 units); Powers: 3 for 18 (down 7.4 units); Gdula: 2 for 18 (down 7.5 units); Stewart: 3 for 18 (down 8.42 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports