China’s DF-21D: The Missile That Could Sink a U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier

DF-21D

Meet the DF-21D: The Chinese DF-21D anti-ship missiles, described as “carrier killers,” have been on the Pentagon’s radar for quite some time.

The ground-launched weapons have a reported range of  1,000 miles, ostensibly able to destroy aircraft carriers with advanced range and guidance systems.

DF-21D – U.S. Response

The existence of the DF-21D is likely a key part of why the U.S. Military services have been accelerating a strategic approach referred to as A2/AD, anti-access/area denial. The idea with A2/AD is to develop weapons, multi-domain tactics and technologies sufficient to overcome an enemy’s effort by keeping forces too far away to attack.

With China for instance, the existence of long-range ballistic missiles and weapons such as the DF-21D represents an effort to make ocean and land territory too risky or too costly to approach. A Carrier Air Wing can launch F/A-18s and F-35Cs from the maximum distance its combat radius allows, a distance of roughly 300 to 500 miles.

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This means that, in order to avoid being held at risk of full destruction by a DF-21D, a US Navy carrier would have to operate farther than 1,000 miles offshore.

This is a distance potentially out of range for carrier-launched fighter jets, therefore attack “access” to waters close enough to attack China is denied.

Projecting Power

Despite the existence of the DF-21D, which the PLA has repeatedly test-fired and reported on in its state-backed newspapers, U.S. Navy leaders have been clear that they will operate carriers anywhere they need to in order to project power. There are likely many reasons for this, including the emergence of advanced U.S. Navy layered carrier-defenses and potential limitations of the DF-21D.

Of course many of the specific technologies woven into the DF-21D and its guidance systems may not be fully known or remain mysterious to an extent, yet some interesting observations have pointed out some of the difficulties the weapons might have when it comes to fully “killing” carriers.

Several reports years ago from Air Force Magazine raised interesting questions about the DF-21D, suggesting that perhaps its guidance system may not be sufficient to hit moving targets such as carriers. Perhaps its sensors or guidance systems are not sufficiently integrated to establish the needed “track” on a weapon.

China DF-21D

Military vehicles carrying DF-21D ballistic missiles roll to Tiananmen Square during a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2015. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

One AF Magazine report from as far back as 2013 suggested that the PLA Rocket Force may not have the “networking” sufficient to complete the kill chain and succeed in destroying a target. The DF-21D reportedly uses radar and satellite navigation, however the AF Magazine report suggested that the Chinese may not have the networking or “over-the-horizon” radar needed to establish a “track” and destroy a target. The report also raised questions about whether its warhead would have the energetics and lethality to truly disable a carrier and stop it from operating and launching attacks.

In total, the weapon would need accurate guidance systems, integrated and secure data networking and an ability to hit moving targets in order to succeed in actually “striking” a carrier.

Therefore, the DF-21D may not be able to do all of this, despite Chinese media claims to the contrary.

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Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.