With power to YSRCP ceiling fan switched off, hot days beckon Jagan

With power to YSRCP ceiling fan switched off, hot days beckon Jagan

The mood at the meeting of the YSRCP MPs and senior leaders in Tadepalli near Vijayawada on Friday was understandably sombre. YS Jaganmohan Reddy was visibly emotional as he expressed his inability to understand why the party had lost so badly after what he called "doing admirable work" in the last five years. It is obvious that the NDA political truck that rammed into the YSRCP on June 4 and brought down the entire edifice with its electoral explosives has shaken Jagan and Co.

So is it the end of the road for the YSRCP? Far from it. If the Telugu Desam which was reduced to 23 MLAs and 3 MPs in the 2019 elections, could bounce back with such astounding numbers, so can any party, including the YSRCP. What is happening in Andhra Pradesh is that the people are dishing out Tamil Nadu-like one-sided Tsunami verdicts. Despite that, in Tamil Nadu, both the Dravidian parties - the DMK and the AIADMK - have taken turns to rule the state with the government changing every five years, 2016 being the sole exception in recent years.

 But for that to happen, Jagan will have to embrace a transformation of his personality, his party structure and the kind of company he keeps. As senior Congress leader Arun Kumar, who was a close associate of Jagan's father, the late YS Rajasekhara Reddy, pointed out the YSRCP is just Jagan at one end and the voters at the other. What is missing is a stable political structure. A set of bureaucrats and advisors with no skin in the game ran the YSRCP show and controlled access to the chief minister. In the bargain, Jagan had become inaccessible adding to his image of being aloof and stubborn that was crafted by the TDP. The images of Jagan embracing people during the business end of the election campaign, came too late to repair the damage.

Not only that. It seemed as if an autocratic attitude was the mantra the YSRCP swore by. The village volunteer system, which the Naidu government is persisting with, enabled the YSRCP local-level leadership to keep a close eye on anyone suspected to be on the TDP's side. It is a miracle that despite having its eyes and ears on the ground, the YSRCP did not do anything to arrest the damage and succumbed to such a humiliating defeat when, with 11 legislators, Jagan would not even get the Leader of the Opposition status. The party needed to win at least 18 seats (10 percent of the total strength of the House) in order to get that position.

Many YSRCP MLAs and their kith and kin were a law unto themselves in the constituencies, bulldozing industrialists to award all contracts for security, transport and catering to them. This enabled the YSRCP strongmen to disrupt the work of an industrial plant whenever they felt like arm twisting the entrepreneurs to shell out more money. This is why when Naidu cautioned the people against the Land Titling Act and pointed to Jagan's photograph embossed on the land document passbook, people were convinced that their lands were not safe under a YSRCP regime. This was the gamechanger that completely turned the election against the YSRCP even though the Act was drafted by Niti Aayog, a Government of India agency.

So what does Jagan need to do in order to be relevant again?

For one, he has four Lok Sabha MPs who could become politically significant in case of a change in equations at the Centre. More importantly, the YSRCP has 11 Rajya Sabha MPs and the NDA would need their support to pass crucial bills. On the other hand, the BJP's partners in Andhra Pradesh - the TDP and the Jana Sena - have no presence in the Upper House. This gives Jagan some bargaining power with the BJP leadership if the Naidu regime decides to target him for decisions taken during his years in power. Jagan's bad luck was that even with 22 MPs, he could not garner much for Andhra Pradesh as the BJP had a comfortable majority in New Delhi while with 16 MPs, Naidu would be able to get his way.

Two, Jagan will need to recast the party which is now basically a one-mascot entity. He needs to mentor a fresh crop of grassroots level community leaders in every constituency who work on social issues and are divorced from business interests.

Three, he needs to spend the next five years working out a model of governance where welfare and development are married to each other. Despite having been associated with business before he entered politics, Jagan's aversion to woo investment aggressively meant Andhra Pradesh was no longer a destination much of the industry was looking at. A chief minister needs to be a salesperson for his state as well, and it is this image, reputation and track record that has earned Naidu a fourth term in Andhra Pradesh.

Four, what worked for Jagan pre-2019 was his people connect especially during his 'padayatra'. The last five years saw him forever cocooned in his office space, with time only for meetings with ministers and bureaucrats. Now that he no longer wears the hat of the CM, Jagan needs to bide his time during this initial honeymoon period of the new government and then look for issues on which to connect back with the people. The silver lining is that the party won 39 percent of the vote which is not insignificant by any stretch of imagination.

Five, the party needs to invest in spokespersons who are subject experts and who do not reduce a debate to name-calling. His social media arm too needs to realise that memes alone do not make a campaign. Politics in Andhra Pradesh is fierce and the YSRCP will have to make an attempt to look and sound different if it is serious about getting another chance in 2029.

Six, make up with his sister YS Sharmila Reddy because a leader under fire from his own sibling does not make for a pretty picture. Their mother Vijayamma ought to take the lead to play peacemaker.

But the immediate future won't be easy. The CBI court is to re-start hearing cases relating to disproportionate assets against Jagan from June 19. His cousin and Kadapa MP YS Avinash Reddy is an accused in the murder case of Jagan's uncle YS Vivekananda Reddy and Jagan's decision to back Avinash despite opposition from Sharmila was a talking point in this election. Further investigation in that case too would muddy the waters for the YSRCP. The attacks on YSRCP cadre, allegedly by the TDP and Jana Sena activists, since the day the results were announced, have been a matter of concern too.

During his election campaign, Jagan would urge the people to keep the TDP bicycle (election symbol) outside the house and dump the Jana Sena glass (election symbol) in the sink and switch on the ceiling fan (YSRCP election symbol). Now that the people decided to switch off power to the fan instead, Jagan will have to find ways to beat the heat.

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)