Touchbacks will likely dominate the NFL’s new kickoff
Touchbacks will likely dominate the NFL’s new kickoff
One thing is becoming increasingly clear: The NFL’s new kickoff rules will have unintended consequences. While the rule changes were initially branded as a way for the kickoff to be an active play that avoids touchbacks, that’s not exactly how it’s actually going to play out when the season begins.
Back in May, we wrote this about the league’s new kickoff, after digging into the rules and talking to sources:
Here’s what I learned:
The XFL’s kickoff return was returned for an average position of 29 yards. The NFL moved the kickoff back five yards (along with a few other rule changes), so the expectation going into the season is that the starting field position spot will be around the 34-yard-line. Here’s the problem: The NFL didn’t adjust the penalty for a touchback to go along with that five-yard change, so touchbacks out the back of the end zone have a starting field position at the 30-yard-line...which could lead to just as many touchbacks as before.
If kicking teams are electing to allow return teams to field the ball, the main strategy is going to be a sort of long squib attempt. If a ball bounces inside the 20 and goes out of the end zone, the touchback simply goes to the 20-yard-line. Under XFL rules, there was a hangtime penalty that was enforced to prevent these “long squib” attempts, but the NFL didn’t adopt it.
So you’re going to see one of two plays with the NFL’s rules: A kick out of the back of the end zone or a long squib that could lead to teams actually using two returners on the field at the same time rather than just the single returner that we’re used to.
The more I learn about the NFL’s rule changes, the more I think the Packers were correct in voting against the full-season implementation of the rules, which president Mark Murphy stated was because the club wanted to test out the rules for a preseason before going into a full season with the changes. The NFL should have adopted the XFL’s kickoff rules wholesale, rather than adjusting them to incentivize more touchbacks — the problem they already had with kickoffs.
On Friday, ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio reported much of the same information that we unearthed last month. Florio claims that one coach told him that teams “will choose to kick out of the end zone at the outset of the season, so that the play can be studied based on the teams that choose to be the guinea pigs for it.” Florio also noted that the original touchback spot was going to be the 35-yard-line, but it was changed to the 30-yard-line — which now incentivizes touchbacks — on the weekend before owners voted on the rule change. Per the writer, “it’s too late” to move the touchback spot to the 35-yard-line.
Because of how the rules are structured, you’re going to get one of two plays: 1) a long squib that will force returners to show off their fielding ability or 2) a simple touchback. That’s far from the bill of goods we were promised when the league originally made the rule changes.