Australia not expected to join US despite growing risks

Lieutenant General Stephen Sklenka doesn't believe that conflict over Taiwan is inevitable.

The US has no expectations for Australia to join a potential conflict, even as "concerning" Chinese military drills near Taiwan risk escalating tensions.

Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra on Thursday, US Indo-Pacific Command Deputy Commander Lieutenant General Stephen Sklenka said the military activities that followed the inauguration of Taiwanese president William Lai were "concerning" but expected.

"Just because we expect that behaviour doesn't mean that we shouldn't condemn it," he said.

"It's one thing for the United States to condemn the Chinese but it's a far more powerful effect I believe when it comes from nations within this region."

But a spokesperson for Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has said Australia is worried about these operations.

"The risk of an accident, and potential escalation, is growing," they told Reuters.

"Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is in all of our interests."

Asked what roles Australian nuclear-powered submarines acquired under AUKUS could play in the region, Lt Gen Sklenka replied: "I have no idea."

"From the military perspective, there's no expectation of anybody participating in any conflict with us because those decisions are national sovereign decisions that the United States can't dictate," he said.

Lt Gen Sklenka said the US and its allies must take seriously Chinese President Xi Jinping's directive to his forces to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

"I don't think that conflict is inevitable, I really don't," he said.

"But I'm a military guy and if you're an American, you're paying me not to live on hope. You pay me to be ready."

China considers Taiwan, a self-governed democracy, to be a part of its territory.

Under the AUKUS agreement, Australia will buy at least three Virginia-class submarines from the US, before the new SSN-AUKUS class enter into service from the 2040s.

Asked about Australia's decision not to publish footage of an incident earlier in May, where a Chinese plane dropped flares in the flight path of an Australian Navy Seahawk helicopter in the Yellow Sea, Lt Gen Sklenka said the value of publishing video showed the world "what they're up to".

"I do believe that eventually China ... is not going to be able to withstand the public condemnations that will come with that," he said.

Speaking of the potential for miscalculations following a dangerous incident, the US Marine Corps officer said it could create the conditions where mutual defence treaties could be enacted.

Lt Gen Sklenka said he was a believer in AUKUS, and the second part of the pact relating to co-operation on defence technologies had the potential to expand to new partners, broadening beyond Australia, the US and the UK.

Japan has been touted as a potential AUKUS Pillar II partner, but New Zealand, South Korea and Canada have also flagged their interest in joining.

with Reuters