Beryl expected to hit the Caribbean as a major hurricane this week
All eyes are on the Caribbean this weekend as an early-season storm threatens the Antilles.
Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to quickly grow into a full-fledged hurricane by Saturday night or early Sunday morning, potentially making landfall in the Lesser Antilles to start the week.
Stay with The Weather Network’s hurricane hub for all the latest on the active hurricane season ahead
In fact, an updated forecast from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands.
It could be one of the earliest hurricanes we’ve ever seen in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, a testament to the unusually hot water in the region that’s led worried experts to call for a very active hurricane season this year.
Antilles on alert; expected to become major hurricane
Beryl formed from a vigorous disturbance that rolled off the coast of Africa this week. The system wouldn’t be out of place at the peak of hurricane season, an unusual feat this early in the season.
The NHC expects Beryl to rapidly develop into the first hurricane of the 2024 season by Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
As of 11 a.m. Saturday, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 km/h with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is now forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a major hurricane (Category 3) before it reaches the Windward Islands.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Barbados, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Grenada.
Strong winds, torrential rains, storm surge flooding, and rough waves are expected throughout the Lesser Antilles as the storm pushes through the region on Sunday and Monday.
The worst conditions are likely in Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines as the centre of the storm moves close to the region. These islands could see 100-150 mm of rain as Beryl passes through the region. Foul conditions are also likely on Grenada and Saint Lucia.
Forecasters expect the eventual hurricane to push into the Caribbean Sea through the first half of next week, potentially threatening Jamaica by Wednesday.
Anyone in the Caribbean should closely monitor the developments of this storm and heed the advice and orders of local officials.
One of the region’s earliest storms on record
If the current predictions come to pass, this would be an exceptionally rare storm for the region.
This may become the farthest east we’ve ever seen a hurricane develop in the tropical Atlantic during the month of June. Hurricanes usually don’t form this deep in the heart of the tropical Atlantic Ocean until later in the season.
MUST SEE: El Niño is over—but La Niña may arrive during peak hurricane season
The only other storms that formed this far east this early in the year were Hurricane Elsa in 2021 and an unnamed storm that hit Trinidad and Tobago in 1933. It’s worth noting that both 2021 and 1933 eventually ranked among the most active hurricane seasons on record.
The last time there was a major hurricane before the July 4th holiday was Hurricane Alma on June 8, 1966. Alma was also the earliest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since 1825.
The most recent major hurricane to occur in July was Martha, during the second week in 2008.
The historic year of 2005 saw Hurricane Dennis and Emily peak at Category 4 and 5, respectively. Dennis reached major hurricane status on July 7, and Emily did so a week later.
Experts largely agree that we’re in for a very active Atlantic hurricane season in the weeks and months to come. Sea surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic are running several degrees hotter than normal, closer to what you’d expect in September than the end of June.
These abnormally hot waters will combine with the lower wind shear brought on by a developing La Niña in the eastern Pacific to foster extremely favourable conditions for tropical cyclone development through the peak of the season this fall.
The latest seasonal outlooks call for as many as two-dozen named storms, which is far more than the 14 tropical storms we’d see during a typical Atlantic hurricane season.
Thumbnail courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest throughout hurricane season.