Bollywood's half-yearly report card for 2024 is here

The pictures keep changing, not only at the theatres, but in the industry too. If 2022 was a year of complete stagnation for the Hindi film industry, sparking the infamous South vs Bollywood debate, 2023 revived it with films like 'Pathaan', 'Jawan', 'Gadar 2' and 'Animal'. However, the momentum of 2023 didn't continue in 2024.

Six months have passed, and Bollywood is still running on sleeper hits. It's too early to predict whether this trend will continue in the second half of the year, or if the industry will turn profitable. It is also difficult to predict because the films we expected to do well in the first half did not work.

Trade analyst Taran Adarsh said the first half of the year was not up to the mark for the Hindi film industry, but it was much better than several previous years.

"I wouldn't call it below average. Of course, we didn't have a Rs 500-crore film. But this year has been better than compared to previous years. We have had 'Article 370', 'Shaitaan', 'Laapataa Ladies', 'Madgaon Express' and 'Munjya', which is inching towards Rs 100 crore-mark. There's a mix of different genres that have really worked. But picture abhi baaki hain (the finale is yet to come)," Taran Adarsh told IndiaToday.in.

Trade exhibitor Akshaye Rathi said though the first-half was dull, big-ticket movies could make 2024 a very different story.

"To be able to succeed, you need to step out into the market. Only when a ship sets sail can it reach the harbour. Here, we literally had a few Hindi films released. And because a few films early on didn't do so well, everyone became a bit scared of venturing out into the theatres,"Akshaye Rathi told IndiaToday.In.

"That has been a bit unfortunate. But having said that, now, with big-ticket movies coming, I truly believe that movies like 'Kalki', Independence Day releases, and a few others will bring back momentum at the box office, which will encourage more producers to proactively go out and venture and release their films in theatres with more confidence. That's what we desperately need now," said Rathi.

FIRST-HALF RUNNING ON SLEEPER HITS

It's not that Bollywood didn't produce enough films this year. It did. But something was lacking. Admit it or not, star power is a major factor when it comes to box office figures. Unlike in 2023, 2024 didn't have an SRK, Salman, Aamir, Ranbir or Ranveer release. Butsleeper hits such as 'Laapataa Ladies'(Rs 21.05 crore), 'Munjya' (Rs 115.60 crore) are acting as fillers until the film industry finds a firm ground to claw on.

"As long as the money is coming, that's more important. Call it sleeper or runner or any other name, but the fact is that moolah has to come in," saidTaran Adarsh.

Akshaye Rathi counts the several films of 2024 that, though not superhits, have done relatively well.

"There was a 'Laapataa Ladies', 'Munjya', which nobody saw coming in these numbers. 'Chandu Champion' is not a sleeper hit, but it's a movie that's just taking on and sustaining reasonably well with the word of mouth as it enters its third week. These are movies that have done reasonably okay on that front, and hopefully, we'll have many more," says Rathi.

"I won't be surprised if 'Bad Newz' comes and does good numbers. 'Kill' is expected to be different and unique. 'Stree 2' is releasing on the Independence Day weekend, and might open well and do good numbers. Let's hope that we have more surprises than shocks this year," says Rathi, sounding optimistic.

WILL 'KALKI 2898 AD' MAKE UP FOR WHAT'S LOST?

Now came Nag Ashwin's magnum opus, 'Kalki 2898 AD', starring Prabhas, Amitabh Bachchan, Deepika Padukone, and others. The film was released at the cusp - the end of one half and the beginning of another. The film is important for the Hindi film industry, which is desperate for a superhit.

In fact, 'Kalki' has the potential to be the motivator and set the stage for balanced business growth.

Highlighting its significance, Akshaye Rathi remarked, "You just need that one big film to come along, bring back the momentum, rebuild the habit or get people back in the theatres, and then they look out for every big ticket film that's worth their while and turn up. This year, we unfortunately, haven't had a mammoth blockbuster. There was 'Fighter', 'Shaitaan', and 'Munjya', but they weren't ballistic hits which came in like a hammer and shook up the box office. 'Kalki' looks like exactly that. So fingers crossed and hopefully, the momentum continues from here."

FIRST SIX MONTHS WEREN'T GREAT FOR SOUTH CINEMA TOO

In 2022, the debate was whether the Hindi or regional film industrywas better. Sadly, this year's trade business hasn't left scope even for that. At least, for now.

While the Tamil film industry tasted moderate success with films like 'Captain Miller' and 'Maharaja', things haven't looked very bright for the Kannada film industry.

"The Kannada industry hasn't had any big success this year. The Telugu industry is also going through a tough phase. You need exceptional word of mouth. The film industry is struggling. The OTT and satellite buyers are not buying up front, so that is also a problem for them. It's been a tough year for the industry overall in India," trade analystRamesh Bala told IndiaToday.In.

RISE OF MALAYALAM FILMS

Amid the box office tussle, hits and numbers, the Malayalam film industry, as always, is going with the flow. It is in no rush to set the cash registers ringing and is rather happy with the slower pace. The industry's priority has always been good content and that is what is seeing it through.

"The Malayalam film industry never chased grandeur. Even when 'Baahubali' or 'KGF' was made, they never chased anything because they knew their strength lied in good storytelling, good acting and making good content. During the pandemic, a lot of people watched Malayalam movies on OTT. Finally, they are able to see theatrical success with 'Manjummel Boys', 'Premaloo', Goat Life', and others," saidRamesh Bala.

"The Malayalam film industry is like they go local to do global. They didn't do anything like a pan India blockbuster or a masala entertainer like 'KGF', 'Pushpa'. They just stuck to their roots and made sensible movies in different genres. Luckily, this year, they haven't had much competition from the rest of the industries. So finally, their quality shone and people from other states are appreciating it," added Bala.

A poster of 'Manjummel Boys'.

LOADED SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR

While the first half of the year hasn't been the way we expected it to be, the maximum pressure lies in the second half. Will the industry bounce back?

"Lots of interesting films are lined up. Very importantly, we need to focus beyond metros. The core business lies in the mass circuits like UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana. We need to tap these markets. If a film is made with a handful of metros, it's not going to work," said Taran Adarsh.

Akshaye Rathi is hopeful that the big releases in the second half of the year will balance out the dull first half.

"We're still halfway through 2024 and the bigger releases from Hindi Cinema or Indian cinema are all lined up for the second half. We're starting off with 'Kalki', it's a Telugu film, and then later as you go along, there's 'Stree 2', 'Vedaa', 'Baby John', 'Singham' - there's so much more that's coming along. We are lacking the big-ticket star vehicles because there's no Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, Aamir Khan, Hrithik Roshan, Ranbir Kapoor or Ranveer Singh release. But having said that, we clearly have a Ajay Devgn, Akshay Kumar making up for it," said Rathi.

WILL BOLLYWOOD VS SOUTH DEBATE RETURN?

If we look at the line-up of upcoming films, the South appears stronger than Hindi cinema. We have 'Devara', 'Pushpa' with A-listers, whose presence and fandom carry a lot of weight. If, by chance, South Indian films dominate over Bollywood again this year, will history repeat itself by restarting the controversial 2022 debate that we thought was behind us?

"There is a good possibility of the South dominating the overall Indian box office. 'Kalki' is technically a South directorial production. 'Devara', 'Pushpa 2', Rajinikanth's 'Vettaiyan' – South has more movies coming up", said Ramesh Bala.

"As for Bollywood, Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, Aamir Khan, Hrithik Roshan don't have any releases this year. It's only Akshay Kumar, Ajay Devgn, but so far they haven't done any Rs 800 crore or Rs 1000 crore. Their maximum will be below a certain threshold. There is a good possibility that before December 31, South may have a big pan-Indian blockbuster. We may not have a 'Jawan', 'Pathaan' or 'Animal' this year from Bollywood," added Bala.

As we started by saying, the picture keeps changing from year to year. In fact, it is possible for the picture to change, and in a big way, within the same year too. There's nothing that one big hit can't fix, be it for the Hindi or the pan-India film industry. Let's hope the second half of 2024 is thrilling.

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