Met Office 14 day weather outlook 28/06/2024

Hello and welcome to the Met Office 14 Day Outlook. Love it or hate it, the hot weather that many places experienced through the week has now cleared away and there's no sign of it coming back for the start of July either. Atlantic weather has returned, the jet stream has fired up and that's going to send various areas of low pressure our way. Not all the time there will be ridges of high pressure, for example on Sunday, bringing largely fine conditions across many parts of the country. These lows though, taking a path to the north of the UK and certainly through the first half of the upcoming week, we're going to see an area of low pressure move through northern parts of Scotland. So it's going to be most changeable towards the north, drier and a little more settled towards the South, but a change to cooler than average weather for most places and back to chopping and changing each day as well. This is the most likely weather pattern for Thursday the 4th of July. It comes out at a 45% chance, but the next two likely weather patterns are very, very similar to this chart, which shows low pressure to the north of the UK, spells of rain or showers coming into northern parts, drier towards the South where it's closer to higher pressure and a general cool westerly airflow. Note some rain there and through the latter half of the week there's always the chance that rain could affect southern areas at times, as well as a weakening band of or weakening frontal system sinking S. But Fast forward to Saturday and the most likely weather pattern looks very similar. Low pressure to the north, mixed conditions for many places, rain or showers across northern parts, drier towards the South, although not entirely ruling out rain towards the South, and summed up as a whole, this is the first week of July pressure anomaly from the European modern. It shows lower than normal pressure to the north, higher than normal pressure out towards the Mid-Atlantic, and that similarly for the first week of July would correspond to above average rainfall for northern parts of the UK, especially northern and northwest Scotland. Below average rainfall for southern parts of the UK. So mostly fine here, and some dry, bright weather in any sunny spells that come through feeling perfectly pleasant. It's towards the northwest where you're more likely to see spells of rain and showers coming through on a cool and blustery westerly breeze into the second week of July. And there are subtle changes but they're not particularly favourable for summer like weather. Lower pressure further South bringing S westerly winds. So perhaps not quite as cool but possibly wetter than the first week. Certainly for western parts of the UK, with that lower than normal pressure normally sitting a bit further South and a wetter than average signal there across certainly western parts of the UK. So no sign of summer heat returning in the foreseeable future, but there's always the possibility that Atlantic tropical storms could throw up a few unforeseen consequences as we go towards mid-july. So keep your eyes peeled. We'll keep you updated right here at the Met Office. Bye bye.