Nike's culture has to be rebuilt, says Williams Trading's Sam Poser

And Sam, I have to give you credit. You've been very critical. You turned on this company, what, a few months ago, despite a lot of the analysts saying now's a good time to buy. You said it's going to be bumpy from here. So I assume you feel pretty vindicated given what we heard last night. I don't know, vindicated. I just hope I helped some people make some money or not lose money. But I mean, I look, the, the big problem here is, and you brought it up, is they've lost a lot of people. And one of the couple things that were said on the call, one that they're reinvesting some of the $2 billion savings into talent #2 that they said, you know, we've done this before in 2018. And then lastly, at the end of the call, the CEO said, you know, one of the best things about Nike is the people and its culture. Well, they laid off a lot of people and, and I don't know how well that culture still exists. And you know, that is the foundation of the business. And seven years ago when they came out of this before or six years ago that they had the foundation of that culture. It's not there. It's got to be rebuilt. And I think it's just, I think they could make the revenue number on selling and wholesale, but I think there's risks to the gross margin even in this revised down guidance. Why? Why? Because I mean, they, they, they were able to grow margins and they had a big profit beat. And the whole mantra has been profitable growth. Isn't it the the revenue growth that the street is more worried about right now? Well, maybe. But The thing is, is they're going to switch from selling through at direct to consumer to selling in at wholesale. So you have a mix issue there and then you're counting on this new product that's going to sell through at regular price. And while there are a few things that are doing, you know, well, right now, Nike is a huge company, this Air Max DN isn't selling through. Well, the they've they've pulled back on the three shoes that you mentioned before, but they're telling you they're selling more of those in to wholesale and sell in and sell through do not necessarily match. And that's the problem here it is, you know, I think the back half guidance is still hopeful and Nike has a lot of leverage with their retail partners to say you got to take this. So their wholesale book is a lot of, you know, we really need you to take this. I guess where you could be wrong, Sam, is that if they, if this is a kitchen sink quarter and that's what some of the analysts are trying to ponder today, whether whether it's it's just a reset or whether they're just this is kitchen sink and they're setting themselves up to beat. And they see that. I mean what I've heard is they see consumer reaction to some of the new shoes, the new PEG for instance, and running. And while they're not taking back share yet, they feel confident that that's coming because they see the reaction from wholesale and from consumers to some of their new products. And that should sort of ignite the turn around. That's the bull case that I mean it should. The question is will it? And The thing is, if I mean, if you compare this company to Adidas, Adidas you know, had a lot of their core classic products sort of nascent for a while. They're bringing that back while they develop new product here. You've got your best product you have to pull back on and you have your fingers crossed on the new product. The Air Max DN is not working. The sell through rates on like the Jordan 4 that launched a couple weeks ago are are disappointing to say the least. A lot of that stuff's going to have to get marked down. They felt very confident at the end of the third quarter that the back half of this year would be better. Now they feel less confident. I don't think all that bad news is out of this thing yet. Well, we certainly appreciate you joining us. Stock down 19%. At some point, Sam, does it get interesting here? It's already, it's already sold off double digits into the print. Now down another almost 20%, I lowered my price target to $67. But what I would say this is, I mean, they have to prove that they can that that, you know, they know what's going on, that they have the people and, and, and the culture to do it. And I think that at the end of the day is the real question. You can look back, but it's a totally different crew there now. And I would argue they aren't, it isn't as established a crew is what they've had in the past when they've got out of this in the past. So, you know, if things improve, I mean that's that's the underlying problem of the whole thing. I think that's what everybody missed going into the quarter. Thank you. You've been warning about that for a while. Sam Poser, thank you very much. And one other comment that I heard from some of these top executives, Carl, you know we talk a lot about Hoka taking share.