Analyst View On Jio Tariff Hikes, What Were Expectations? | Reliance Jio Listing? | Gaurav Malhotra
We'll go back to that big news of tariff hikes. The market was expecting that for some time now to the big trigger. Stocks were active yesterday, but Gaurav Malhotra is now joining us to talk more about these tariff hikes, Director at Access Capital. Gaurav, morning, thanks for your time. The analyst community along with the market was expecting revisions higher. Have they come in in line with expectations at least start of Jio or have been the higher or slightly on the lower side? Yeah, good morning everyone. So you know, based talking to the investors on the street, I think so the general view was it'll be around 15 to 20% hike. Our view has always been that, you know, the hikes are generally tend to be more substantial looking at at the past. So we in our numbers had roughly around 2025% hike. So, and that is what has happened at least for the popular plan, which is the one GBA day 1.5 GBA day. So it's it's roughly in line with the experiments and slightly better than what street is. But I think so the the bigger aspect to note is the fact that, you know, the 5G monetization has now finally started. You know, this is something which we have been arguing that now that you know what Gio and party have roughly around 20% of the subscribers on 5G, you know, it's only a matter of time that they will start monetizing it, which has which is what it has started. The postpaid hike is another sort of surprised. You know, we have seen that even during the peak of competitive pressures, the party would idea never taken cuts in postpaid when the tariffs are going up that time also again, the postpaid tariffs are not really touched. So this is really the first time that the postpaid tariffs have sort of moved up and and, you know, Gio Bharti and would, should, should follow, follow at least in the same quantum percentage increases. Gaurav, you know, our researcher was making a very interesting point that, you know, the fact that the tariff hike has come and they've made the first move. This also could very well be a precursor for a listing. So, you know, we have stated this that, you know, we do expect some some sort of listing action by by by reliance saying sometime next year. Now whether this is pre whether that led to this see, end of the day, it really doesn't matter who takes up the hikes. End of the day, everyone sort of whoever there is a leader and there's a follower and that is what we've seen. So I don't think so one can describe any anything specific from that perspective. Evaluations, Bharti, Woulda, what kind of evolution in your view are they trading at in from one year from now, higher EBITDA contribution due to tariff highs, where will that lead the evaluations to see, The thing is the estimates of the Street obviously did have certain quantum of tariff increase. We are also in the same same sort of Cam right now. You know, on our numbers for the India business parties are roughly trading between say 1111 1/2 * 1 year forward, which is slightly higher than its long term average. But you know, given the fact that it is grow, it is, it is it has very strong visibility of growth. I think. So the market is is willing to sort of give it some, some higher multiple on Hoda idea right now we don't have a formal view. So I will sort of refrain from making, making any, any statement. All right. Thanks very much for giving us your take on what this potential of tariff hike could mean for the other players within the space as well As for Jio in particular.