Why Rahul Gandhi chose Raebareli over Wayanad. Five points
Why Rahul Gandhi chose Raebareli over Wayanad. Five points
The Congress is betting all its money on party leader Rahul Gandhi, says author and political analyst Rasheed Kidwai. The Congress, a party that has almost always depended on the Nehru-Gandhi family, is seeing a sign of revival and Rahul Gandhi's picking Raebareli over Wayanad, the two seats he won in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, hints at the party's strategy.
Buoyed by the election results, the Congress is going on the offensive.
"It is a political message strong and sharp. The Congress wants to make the best use of the period till the 2029 election. It is when Narendra Modi is vulnerable, it is a coalition government at the centre. It is an effort to charge the opposition with both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi on the opposition benches," Kidwai told India Today TV.
The election has given the Congress confidence that it is capable of taking on the BJP in direct fights. An analysis of Congress's direct fights shows how the party snatched seats from the BJP. This has helped the Congress to almost double its tally from 52 in 2019 to 99 in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Here are five reasons why the Congress leader, who led the party's Lok Sabha election campaign, has picked the Raebareli Lok Sabha seat of Uttar Pradesh over Wayanad in Kerala.
1) HOPE OF REGAINING LOST GROUND THROUGH BSP VOTE BASE
The Congress won six seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In 2019, it had won just the Raebareli seat. The INDIA bloc won 43 seats, of which 36 were won by the Samajwadi Party.Â
This was a big setback for the NDA, which had won 62 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP in 2019.
In the 2024 election, the NDA managed to win just 36 seats, with the BJP securing 33.
The biggest loser in terms of vote share was the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). It's vote share dipped from 19% to 9%, a fall of 10 percentage points.
These votes went mainly to the Samajwadi Party but also to the Congress. If SP captured 6-7% of the BSP's vote share, the Congress gained 2-3%.
The Congress is hoping that it can capitalise on the swing of Dalit, Muslim and Brahmin votes in Uttar Pradesh.Â
The ray of hope is the first reason for Rahul Gandhi picking the Raebareli seat of UP over Wayanad in Kerala. It was Wayanad that sent Rahul Gandhi to Parliament in 2019 as he lost from Amethi to BJP's Smriti Irani.
2)Â CHANGING STRATEGY AND GOING ON THE OFFENSIVE
The Congress, enthused by the result of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, has changed its approach.Â
Rahul Gandhi retaining Raebareli and giving up the Wayanad seat is a definitive signal of that offensive approach.
"A change in tactics, from defensive to offensive. Wayanad was a defensive approach. The electoral result of the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh is why Rahul, the first among equals, chose Raebareli over Wayanad in Kerala," Rasheed Kidwai tells India Today TV.
He says that Rahul Gandhi looking after the South from Wayanad and sister Priyanka the North was an old tactic, and the result of the Lok Sabha election result has changed that.
"With the Congress doing well in Maharashtra, Rajasthan and UP, there is a hope for the Congress, and that has resulted in the change of approach. Whether it will click or not, only time will tell," says Kidwai.
The BJP has to be fought from the heartland, where it is strong, and not from the South. The BJP is still trying to push into further deeper for electoral gains but hasn't been really successful till now.
3) FOR CONGRESS TO REVIVE, A REVIVAL IN UP, A MUST
It is said that the way to power in Delhi goes through Uttar Pradesh. So, when the regional parties started eating into the Congress's vote base, its decline was first visible in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Its hold on power in Delhi started slackening too.
It is said that to revive fully, the Congress has to revive in Uttar Pradesh.
The six seats in Uttar Pradesh, albeit with the Samajwadi Party's support, is a sign of green shoots for the Congress.
The other good sign for the Congress is that even Jat votes have swung towards the party in UP and Haryana, despite Jat leader Jayant Choudhary and his Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in the NDA camp.
4) TO WIN THE HEART, WIN THE HEATLAND
To win the heart, the Congress has to win the heartland. This is where it has to take on the BJP alone and in alliance with regional partners.Â
Winning the nine heartland states is imperative as they send 218 of the 543 Lok Sabha MPs. The Congress has performed better in Haryana and Rajasthan, apart from Uttar Pradesh among the heartland states.
"The Congress is fancying its chances in the Hindi heartland and that is why Rahul Gandhi, the first among equals, is being propped up from Uttar Pradesh," says Rasheed Kidwai.
By winning more seats in UP, the Congress can also hope for a contagion effect in Bihar, where it is in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
5) KERALA IS A SAFE BET FOR PRIYANKA
Kerala will see Assembly polls in 2026, and it is most likely to go the Congress way.
The state, which has been swinging either the CPM-led LDF's way or that of the Congress-led UDF, surprised most political pundits by voting back the LDF to power in 2021.
However, the CPI(M) had a poor showing in the Lok Sabha polls, winning just a lone seat. The Congress won 14 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 while its ally, the IUML, won two seats.
The Congress seems to be confident that Kerala, whether Rahul Gandhi retained Wayanad or not, was for the party to win in 2026. And with Priyanka Gandhi taking over from brother Rahul, the Congress campaign will get a boost as well.
"In Kerala, which goes to the polls in 2026, Priyanka's presence in Wayanad is expected to help the party there too," says Rasheed Kidwai about Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra who has campaigned extensively for the party in the heartland.