Amid declining volatility and lack of fresh triggers: here is what the market experts suggests for stock markets, FIIs, Crude and Gold?
Amid declining volatility and lack of fresh triggers: here is what the market experts suggests for stock markets, FIIs, Crude and Gold?
In the passing week, markets ended with gains on hopes that RBI will cut rates in October as inflation has cooled off significantly. This week India’s Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Bank Loan Growth and Deposit Growth data, along with the Industrial Production, and Jobless Claims in the US are major events that will keep the stock markets buzzing.
Economic data: In the coming week, investors will be eyeing the HSBC Composite PMI Flash, HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash, HSBC Services PMI Flash data to be announced on June 21. The HSBC India Composite PMI fell to 60.5 in May 2024, down from the April's reading of 61.5. Followed by Bank Loan Growth, Deposit Growth and Foreign Exchange Reserves data which is going to be released on same day.
Meanwhile, the first meeting of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council after the Narendra Modi-led government took charge at the Centre for the third consecutive term, will be held on June 22 in New Delhi, which is likely to review online gaming taxation and discuss further rationalisation of indirect tax structure.
FII investments: According to Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, After the roller coaster ride in the market in the first week of June, stability has returned to the market as indicated by the sharp fall in India VIX from 27 on June 4th to 12.82 on 14th June. This fall in India VIX indicates the return of stability and a likely consolidation phase in the market.
The resilience of the market and eagerness of retail investors to buy every dip in the market will force FPIs to reduce their selling which was sustained in May. NSDL data shows net FPI sell figure at Rs 3063 crores through 14th June. “If the market continues to rally from here, FPIs may again turn sellers in India and buyers in other markets like Hong Kong which are very cheap compared to India”, he said.
US market data: On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy the US, starting with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index on June 17, followed by Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, on June 18, Foreign Bond Investment, NAHB Housing Market Index on June 19, Building Permits Prel, Initial Jobless Claims, on June 20, S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on June 21.
Nifty Outlook: According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, an identical open and close were registered on Friday at 23465 levels with the formation of long lower shadow on the daily chart. This is indicating a formation of long legged doji type candle pattern at the new all-time highs. Normally, such doji formations after a reasonable up move signals caution for impending trend reversal. But, having formed this pattern amidst range movement the chances of significant reversal pattern forming could be less.
“Nifty continued to show range bound action within 23300-23500 levels and still there is no early signs of any breakouts on either side. A decisive move above 23500 levels is likely to open upside breakout and a slide below 23300 levels could mean a chance of downside breakout of the range movement in the near term", Shetti said.
Crude oil: Saumil Gandhi, Research Analyst for Commodities at HDFC Securities said Crude oil rose on Friday as Russia agreed to dial back output, which improved traders’ sentiment. OPEC's positive demand outlook for the rest of the year also contributed to the recovery of crude oil prices this week. Benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil is trading at $78.60 per barrel, up 0.90% from the previous close. However, weak US macro data and a hawkish Fed stance limit further gains.
“We anticipate crude oil will continue to trade in the upper-end range for the day. From the level, specifically, MCX Crude Oil June Future has resistance at 6625/6700 and support at 6465/6380. NYMEX WTI crude oil has resistance at $80.05/$82.50 and support at $75.80/$74.0”, Gandhi said.
Gold outlook: Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst for Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities has commented, Gold experienced a volatile week, finding support around ₹70,700 and resistance near ₹72,150. Despite minor gains of ₹350, gold remained positive as lower CPI data supported prices. “However, the Fed's somewhat hawkish policy outcome kept pressure on gold. For the next week, gold prices are expected to trade within a range of ₹70,000 to ₹72,500”, Trivedi said.
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