Harping on Hindutva, how BJP lost the poll plot in Uttar Pradesh

The BJP's tally in UP is down by almost half—from 62 of the total 80 seats in 2019 to 33 in 2024. As the party gets into poll-results analysis, in particular focus is the defeat of its sitting MP from Faizabad, Lallu Singh. Several reasons are being cited for the shock setback, but what has been clear in this general election is the limited appeal of the Hindutva narrative in one of India's politically most crucial states.

The victory of the SP's Faizabad candidate Awadhesh Prasad, a Dalit, points to the support the party had garnered among the 250,000-odd Passi Dalit population in the constituency. The SP's decision to field Prasad from a general category seat paid off. Its caste narrative, clear in the slogan 'Na Mathura, na Kashi, abki baar Awadhesh Passi', set the tone of the campaign and shifted the voter mood away from the BJP's religious rhetoric towards social equations.

In fact, Lallu Singh, who won from Faizabad in 2014 and 2019, was the first in the BJP to declare, while campaigning in Ayodhya, that the Constitution would be amended if his party achieved its '400 paar' target. For the SP, it was an opportunity provided on a platter. The party whipped up the narrative that the BJP intended to altogether end reservation benefits for Dalits, backwards and the underprivileged by amending the Constitution. The issue gained so much momentum that BJP leaders kept issuing clarifications throughout the remainder of the election campaign.

This is the first time since 1957 that Faizabad has elected a Scheduled Caste representative to the Lok Sabha. And why not, asks the victorious Prasad. "They (BJP) kept pushing the narrative that they got Lord Ram back to his home (Ayodhya). But can anyone even claim that? Lord Ram has forever belonged there," he said in a conversation with INDIA TODAY.

Prasad argued that Ayodhya's 'transformation' in the run-up to the temple consecration had posed numerous challenges for its residents, such as heavy barricading and police presence, traffic diversions and bureaucratic dominance. "The BJP forgot about these local problems and harped on bringing Lord Ram home. Houses had been demolished (for infrastructure work) and the affected people are yet to be compensated," said Prasad. "It only made Lord Ram angry—and the poll result proves it."

Lallu Singh, in his post-defeat address to BJP workers at the party's election office in Ayodhya, didn't seem to think local problems had cost him the election. "I failed to uphold Ayodhya's honour. There must have been some fault in me. I will introspect why this happened despite Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath's leadership," he said.

The BJP had gained electoral prominence in Ayodhya with the Ram temple agitation of the 1980s. Vinay Katiyar, a Kurmi OBC leader and Hindutva face of the party, won the Faizabad seat thrice (1991, 1996, 1999). Mitrasen Yadav was elected from here in 1989, 1998 and 2004, as a candidate of the Left, SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), respectively. While the Modi wave was instrumental in Lallu Singh's victories in the last two elections, the BJP lost the plot this time once the caste factor began dominating the campaign.

The BJP's huge losses in UP in 2024 include setbacks in the Ayodhya and Varanasi regions, both crucial to the party's Hindutva project. In Ayodhya region, the BJP, besides Faizabad, lost from Basti, Shrawasti, Sultanpur and Ambedkar Nagar.

The party had lost from Shrawasti and Ambedkar Nagar in 2019 as well, but was hoping to reverse its fate by riding on the Ram temple buzz. Interestingly, Saket Misra, the party's candidate from Shrawasti, is the son of Ram Temple construction committee chairman and former principal secretary to the prime minister (Modi) Nripendra Misra. The seats the BJP won in the Ayodhya region are Bahraich, Gonda, Kaiserganj and Domariyaganj.

The Varanasi region has 12 Lok Sabha seats—Varanasi, Jaunpur, Machhlishahr, Bhadohi, Chandauli, Mirzapur, Robertsganj, Ghazipur, Ghosi, Azamgarh, Lalganj and Ballia. In 2019, the BJP and its allies had won seven of these seats, losing Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Ghosi, Lalganj and Azamgarh. This time, the BJP and allies won only Varanasi, Bhadohi and Mirzapur. In Varanasi, Modi's victory margin dropped from over 479,000 votes in 2019 to 152,000 votes.

Several BJP functionaries in UP are hinting at strong damage-control measures. One section in the party links the losses to a 'tug of war' between the Delhi and Lucknow units, the perception being that the state unit was denied credit for the Ram temple consecration and Ayodhya's transformation.

Meanwhile, close aides of chief minister Adityanath have chosen to remain silent on the poll results. All they say is that the party will figure out the reasons for the reverses. However, anyone knowing the BJP election machinery can vouch that much more would already be at play.

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