Stock Market Goes In Correction Phase, A reality Check Or Big Bull Run Coming? | Closing Trades

Back with closing trades right here, Niti now definitely come off from the top of the day. But of course, you know, there are individual movers like a Bharti, Ltim, Hindalco, Dhani Ports. They continue to hold our OK as is the case with Infosys, Wipro as well as TCS 2. Jonathan, you know, since we were talking about it, just wanted to get your sense in on Accenture numbers and what it spells for Indian IT services, although not an apple to Apple comparison. While the revenue guidance has been cut, once again, what the markets clearly have liked about Accenture is, you know, the AI business and what the order book there is actually indicating. Lee, as you rightly say, the numbers on a stand alone basis weren't particularly brilliant. But clearly, yeah, the two things the market liked were, first of all, it looks like it, you know, a bottom in the cycle if you like. But secondly, you know, any company that's mentioning anything to do with AI is getting a sort of a rewriting in the current market environment. And clearly Accenture and the Indian IT majors all one way or the other will have something with some part to play in this whole AI story. So yes, you know, we felt for some time that on a net basis AI will be positive for the Indian IT companies, but but I think like everybody else, we're just struggling to get our head around how that's going to play out, when it's going to play out. But you know, broadly speaking, definitely you could say that the Indian IT majors and a lot of these Accenture like companies will benefit will overall be, you know, will benefit from the whole AI move. But you know, broadly speaking, obviously looks like the cycles bottomed for a lot of these names, even though that the the numbers aren't particularly inspiring in the very short term. In fact, we were just sharing with Sunil call from CLSA as well earlier today. And he says there's still another couple of quarters of weakness until investors should begin looking at the tech plays again for the IT services in particular there. Look, we, we numb with the commentary as you mentioned, it still feels that you got probably one or two quarters of of weakness in the number still there. And so even though it's a sector where numbers have come down a lot, it's broadly underperformed. If you look at the more longer term last last 2-3 years, we, we do feel that it's probably still a couple of quarters early in terms of sort of getting into the sector. So we would rather be still focused on the domestic sectors in India, some of the things we just spoke about as opposed to the external facing sectors at this point, including that right. Naresh, what is it that you're making of the move in IT today? Does it seem like it's a sustainable trade, inspiring enough in terms of the way it has moved through the day? We have not been able to sustain a 2% gap up move or even a 1% gap up move in a lot of these names. So we will wait it out, say if we sustain for today's high over the next few sessions, then we say the momentum is in place because if you look at the Nifty IT index, that looks promising. It was a small Pennant or a flag formation on a breakout. But price action is not great. But if we cross today's high on stocks like Infosys, TCS or LTI, etcetera, then I would be more positive, right? OK, that's the take coming in a technology. Just want to revisit what the fertilizer gaming as well as auto insurance plays are up to because of the buzz that we're picking up around what could actually transpire at the GST Council meeting. In fact, we'll have our reporters as well tell us what they're anticipating and what is the buzz that they're picking up from their, you know, sources about what actually may transpire at these meetings. In fact, let me take it across to Anurag Shah first, my colleague. And, you know, he's learning that important announcements are expected for the insurance sector and that the GST Council has this time actually invited few insurance company officials as well at the meeting. Here's what he's picking up on the buzz after a long gap GST Council meeting is happening and general insurance industry is also expecting clarity on few issues industry is facing from last 5-6 years and as per our sources this time industry officials also called for GST council meeting and one major issue industries seeking clarity is on salvage value deduction related to the motor insurance claim. So, presently insurance industry is not paying GST on a salvage value deduction. But tax officials are claiming that salvage value deductions as a sales and taxing it at 18%. Last year in August 2023, ICICI Lombard got a tax demand notice of 273 crore related to GST on salvage value deduction. So industry is hoping clarity on salvage value deduction. Other major issue is LED industries hoping to get clarity is on GST on Co insurance premium. Around 20 insurance companies has got demand notice from GST department of 15,000 crore and in March 2024 this year insurance companies approached the Bombay High Court also also because as per insurance companies GST on Co insurance will lead to double taxation. So insurance companies are expecting a clarity on GST on coinsurance also. So if insurance industry get clarity on those these two issues it will be a major relief for general insurance industry right? OK, that's all the buzz around what to expect from insurance. But on this scheduled meeting on Saturday, the council is also expected to discuss some relief for the fertilizer sector summit. Chaturvedi joins in with what he's picking up from his sources. Well, upcoming GST meet on June 22 will have a number of issues which will be discussed. One of the issues that is going to have some impact on fertilizer sector and benefits fertilizer overall sector is the GST reduction on on this particular issue, sources have told us that fitment committee on GST has recommended this to GOM Group of Minister on rationalization. As far as the demand of industry on bringing down GST on fertilizer is concerned, GST and fertilizer is 5%. Industry is demanding of complete scrapping of this and we know from the sources that fitment coming has recommended this to GOM on rationalization. Apart from that certain clarifications will come on tobacco, tobacco products, BD etc. Also some clarification on retrospective tax issues can also come. This includes online gaming. As far as this is concerned it 28% levy was there imposing post in October last year as far as online gaming sector is concerned. But this particular is linked to fertilizer also. So fertilizer demand from it has been fertilizer industry has been demanding since long time that the five per percent GST on the fertilizer should be scrapped and that now the treatment committee has recommended that to the GM on rationalization of taxes, right. Naresh, come in on the fertilizer names, the likes of RCFNFLGSFCGNFC. Does it seem like, I mean, I know this is a news based trigger and only in anticipation. Some of these names are running up or were before you're seeing that dip come in today, but anything for Monday or anything as a trend that you spot. So given that they've already moved up 2025%, the risk reward is not in favor. And a lot of these names are very low floats. So the volatility could be much more worse if the news does not play out as people expected to be. So I would avoid the whole sector as such. That's the messaging coming in for the fertilizer names. Just taking stock of what else has been happening in the market. Reliance, by the way, has now cracked a good 2% as we speak right now. Jonathan, what is it that you make of some of these, you know, erstwhile heavyweights while they still continue to be heavyweights, but, you know, clearly because of the sectoral rotation, they've not really been participating in the last lap of the rally. Reliance clearly being one such case in point. What do you think in terms of a trigger would actually play out for the company now that would excite the market? Yeah. I mean, it's, you know, I guess one of the problems with Reliance is it's conglomerate sort of nature. I think investors generally prefer a more focused business. You know, it's obviously Reliance has its fingers in many different pies. So you could argue that that hence it, you know, deserves to trade at a discount to the rest of the market. And from time to time it will lag just because of that conglomerate nature of its, its underlying businesses. I think, you know, from an investor perspective, the, the energy side is, is a cash cow, but very cyclical. But the consumer facing sectors are very interesting, but they're sort of hit up hidden up in this broader, you know, larger business. And yeah, I guess it's not a name that we currently look at. It's not something that we've generally invested in the past, but obviously it's a very large index name and, you know, therefore will benefit or not from any ETF flows in and out of the broader market. That's the take coming in on Reliance. Jonathan, good to have you on the show. We'll let you go on that note. Let's just take in some closing trades as well before we slip into a quick break and then track the last half an hour of trade this week. Kunal, what's on your list? So I'll be bullish on from current levels. The stock is confirmed a break out about the 200 DMA just a couple of days back when it managed to break past about the 505 twenty barrier. So that's a trade which I would believe from a short term play could probably, you know, give an upset of 575 to 580 over the near term. OK, that's jubilant Foodworks and a buy call coming in there from Kunal Naresh. What about you? So that would be buy on Reliance Industries. The stock is stuck in this band of 2850 to 2950 for the last many weeks once it sustains from here and a breakout could be possible. So risk reward trade here within a stop loss at 2815 and we'll look at a possible break out about 3000 in the short term. Right, OK. On that note, we're going to take a very quick break, come right back the last half an hour of trade this afternoon. Hello, good afternoon. You're watching closing trades in 80 now I'm Anisha Jain, with me, Saisha Faridi. And for now, the market is in the red. In fact, it's materially off the highest point of the trading session after at those record high levels of front 23,667. We have pretty much given up most of its gains, almost 200 points down and we are now staring at a cut of half a percent on the Nifty, the midcap and the small cap index is holding in the green. But the outperformer of this week was the bank NEFT, which is actually given up today. So that index is down a good 400 points the last time I checked. So that continues to be a bit under pressure. And let's see heavyweights from the banking index, which are on the back foot right now. So SBI, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank, they're all down in the trading session. And only two names in the green, Bundan Bank as well as Kotak Mahindra Bank, these are two, two names in the green right now from the banking index. It was holding up quite OK. So LTI Mindtree is one of your top gainers at the index level. But that too has petered because it was up almost three, 3 1/2 percent at one point of time. Now it's a gain of just 2%. Party Airtel, Vodafone Idea, a couple of telecom stocks in focus. But other than that, not much to talk about. Yes, fertilizer is coming off a bit just tentative ahead of that GST meeting, but nothing really that stands out in the market today. Really that stands out. Although, you know, it's a little disappointing that the Nifty Bank spurt lasted just one day and spurt as in the quantum of the spurt they've been holding up in any case. So not just the, you know, the benchmark indexes, but even the Nifty Bank is a good 1% off from the day's highs. Yes, bunch of individual stocks which are in focus. Bharti has had a stellar session today. It's managed to cross that 1400 rupee per share mark on the futures technology. Holding out very well. Got a rub off from those Accenture numbers, but that's not quite the case with an Ultratech cement with the Reliance. But just had a one day dash of a move all through this week. In fact, it's down about a good percent and 1/2 as we speak right now. L&T, Tara Motors, SBI, HDFC Bank Access, they're all in the red as we speak right now. The railway stocks, of course, they're in focus. You know, reports are indicating that the government is looking to add about 50,000 crore rupees allocation for new tracks and they're looking to expand the rollout of Vande Bharat trains as well. So that's definitely arguing. Well, even though some of those stocks too have come off from the top of the day fertilizer names, Anisha just flagged that off. So National Fertilizers, GNFC, GSFC, RCF, they've all been holding a buzz all through this week. Today, of course, they've come off from the highs of the day, gaming stocks, Delta Cop in focus and then insurance as well, the likes of New India Assurance, GIC, RE, why they are in focus. We will play that story out in just a short bit from now. But that said, let me welcome on Bora experts. We've got Jonathan Chazelle to talk about the fundamentals of the markets. Kunal Naresh is always on the technicals. Gentlemen. Hi, afternoon Kunal. Let's start off with you just routine profit taking or something more to that, to this routine profit taking nothing, you know, major as such because you know, the sector churn which is playing out for the last 3-4 days for the indices that you know that that in a sector churn is now playing out in a reverse manner. For example, the auto stocks which were you know, going through a corrective phase over the last three days, they are the ones which are seeing intraday recovery. I think Hero Motor Corp, Escorts, etcetera, they've shown in a good recovery, even M&M on intraday basis had recovered quite well. So I would believe that, you know, this could probably be a point where the markets are just going through a churn or profit booking in terms of a few sectors and that could probably keep the indices, you know, back into a trading range. So, you know, now we could be looking at 23200 as a fresh base or the support for the index. And on the upside, I think the levels which you hit 262670 approximately. So maybe closer to to 370-0750 mark is where we can place a resistance for the index. OK, so routine profit booking, that's what Kunal is categorizing this wall as. But Jonathan, let me bring you on board and talk about the Indian markets a bit. It's been fairly volatile from that crash that we saw on June 4th to that rally that we have seen post that. What's your own estimate with respect to where the Indian market is headed? Because a lot of people believe that valuations are sticky. The fundamentals and the positives are baked in, but some of the stock prices continue to surprise. Yeah, I know I'd agree. I think, you know, we've had a pretty impressive recovery as you mentioned from that crash just to a short few days ago. You know, the market has pushed up a lot higher and it's interesting to note the more growth orientated markets globally have really pushed up fairly, you know, in the US, for example, NASDAQ, but certainly in the emerging market space, India does stand out as, you know, very strong recent gains, as you mentioned, valuations are, you know, haven't have, you know, the market has certainly got more expensive and you know, the the usual story, certainly when overseas investors look at India and some of them compare it to the likes of China and and are hoping over a broader recovery in China, you've seen a little bit of profit, you know, a little bit of switching, but not much. I think the underlying India story still looks very strong. And so that yeah, it's at the moment just the markets probably, you know, vulnerable to a bit of profit taking in the very short term. OK, point taken. Nurish, what's the view on banking means at the start of the trading session you were positive on them. Does the view change in any way? Not really. We've not seen much of A move. The index is down say .51%. But if you look at the names is like HDFC Bank which are valid a lot is down 1%. But if you look at ICICI Bank which is on verge of a breakout about 1170, still is down .3% closer to 1150 mark. So for now the view remains the same. We are waiting for more price action for momentum to get faster about say a particular price point of 51800 to 52,000 on the Bank Nifty, 1170 on the ICICI Bank and say 16 eighty 1700 on the HDFC Bank. So overall the structure is still positive. Till the time we hold 51,000 on the Bank Nifty, the view remains the same. We could see further upsides on the private banking needs. Jonathan also wanted to understand your opinion on banks because it seems that private banks is the only pocket where you do have some valuation comfort. And now with the FII slowly trickling back to India equity markets, I mean, clearly that's the obvious choice. Yeah, absolutely. I think certainly a lot of Fiis when they look at the Indian market, they particularly the private banks offer, offer a way to play the broader market, the broader economy if you like. And as you rightly say, they had been lagging, particularly HGFC bank. But you know, obviously more recently that they've started to push higher. But Yep, still very comfortable with the private sector banks on a sort of medium to longer term view. And as I said, very good ways to play the broader Indian economy and growth story, right. Karan, what's your reading on the Nifty Bank? Because much like the midweek enthusiasm, that sort of fizzled out. Yeah, fizzled out. But maybe I think it's the excess, which was, you know, there in many of the large cap private sector banking names that's, you know, getting a bit ebbed off. So I, I don't expect that this could be a major turn around move for or a reversal move for the banking index. I think we managed to hit that 51,000 mark. We came very close to that 52,000 level for the Bank 50. And after this steep rally, I think in the last 10 odd days from the election lows, Bank 50 has rallied up some 6000 points, I think from 46,200 odd levels to 52,000 approximately. So I think after that kind of a run, maybe a 500 to 1000 point correction from the previous highs may not be a major reversal signal for the Bank 50, at least as of now. OK, point taken. Some of these urban consumption plays are doing quite well today. So case in point being PVR INOX, which is above the 1400 mark. Now you also Safari and VIP, those travel plays which are up 4 to 5% in the trading session. And then Honassa consumer two is up almost 5% as we speak. Jonathan, if you had to take a bet between urban India and rural recovery, what would you pick? They're both quite different stories, aren't they? I think, yeah. I mean, obviously, you know, that they're different, different companies to play them and different ways personally, we, we try and get a balance of both and we, we try not to flex too much between one or the other. They've both got, you know, interesting Growth Dynamics in different sectors. So, so it's a bit of a cop out answer I'm giving you, but it's, you know, we like to play both and we we try not to get too clever with. Overweighting sort of certain stocks for certain environments versus others. So other than banks and the consumption names, what are your India allocations, your overweights and underweights? Yeah. I mean, yeah, it's clearly from from a foreign investor, you know, perspective where a lot of people that even don't have access to the to the to the domestic market, the way most people will play out will be via the banks as you say IT. But otherwise, you know, capital goods still remains a very interesting sector. There's some very interesting companies out there. And we still do believe in, you know, the CapEx cycle that's going on in India and the the growth in manufacturing, albeit from a low base. And you know, we've got a lot further to go there. So, you know, and then select some selected basic materials, but in the basic sort of material spaces as well, but very select there. And generally we we tend to sort of shy away from the PSU type names across multiple sectors. So yes, it's it's predominantly if you like financials and then obviously tech as well. And then some, some select other areas. OK, so financial techs, these are the usual bets right now. Time now to slip in a very short break with as we do that, listening to the conversation my colleague Asta had with the You Grow Capitals management, Mr. Sachandranath, on the NBFC space, my perspective was that there is a narrative that regulators are, you know, curbing the growth of NBFC. They are very concerned. But we felt that as an industry body, we should also introspect and see that regulatory changes or regulatory tightness is actually enabling sustainable growth. Because every time you, when you build a highway and when you drive fast, you have to have good brakes. And that's what the theme we have decided that regulators as an enabler to lending companies so that this narrative of, of that regulators on one side and the, you know, my industry participant on the other side can be changed and there will be more collaborative effort which can come. The intent of the regulation is more important than the regulation itself and that's I think so. What industry has to learn? What are your thoughts on banking license for NBFCS and also what are your expectations of this budget which is coming banking license? Bank India banking license is on tap now. NBFCS which are eligible and would like to convert to the bank, they can with respect to the budget expectation as we think industry have represented, you know, few policy changes. First is on surface E, as you know, HFCS have no limit on the surface limit. NBFC have ₹20,00,000. So that has been requested that they should be allowed to have full coverage. When it comes to secured loan, there is an issue of TDs when you know interest paid by the borrower to NBFC required TDs deduction which should not be the case because that's operatively very hassling and the refinancing institution some challenges with respect to GST on coal ending. So all of that we are hopeful. We are trying to be very collaborative as industry body. So we are trying to see that representation made by 1 industry body is also adopted by others. So whether it is FIDCSO chair and PHDCIFA key so that the one voice of the industry emerges and you know, it is acted upon, you know, as the regulators and the government think fit. Back with closing trades right here in ET. Now, 2024 is the year in which Russia is chairing the expanded BRICS forum and country is hosting the first BRICS Tourism forum as well. In Moscow. The event is being organized by the Ministry for Economic Redevelopment or Development of the Russian Federation and the Government of Moscow. ET Nasamich Shatravedi reports from the capital of Russia on the main agenda of the event. Russia is chairing BRICS 2024 and we are here at BRICS Tourism Forum in Moscow, Russia. Well, the event will have a number of participants from many countries including BRICS countries. The event or the sessions will centre around innovation, ESG which means as environment, sustainability. Also there will be discussions, presentations. There will be workshop as well with this overall theme about promoting Russia as a tourist destination. Russia is streaming to get back, is aiming to get back its position as one of the leading tourist destination stations across the world's. 20% of the overall tourists before COVID were from big nations in Russia, but now they are aiming for over 40%. If you talk about Moscow, it's a, it's still a city which is attracting a number, a lot of tourists. Over 60,000 Indian tourists came to Moscow to visit Russia last year. Currently from India, Russia has 10 direct flights, but they aim to increase more overall. There are plans to increase tourism to Russia and it's very much needed. So in this forum, the discussions will take place about how to grow tourism and how to cooperate about the with the countries inside bricks. More and more this summit. Chaturvedi, signing off from Moscow for 80 now. OK, on that note, let me welcome on board Ajay Bhaga as well and find out what he's making of the market right now. Ajay, Hi, afternoon. Good to have you on the show as always. Ajay, do private banks and the underperforming ones especially seem to be the only value zone in the market right now? Not, not exactly. You know there is a lot of defenses available like IT, like pharma as well. So not exactly only the private banks. But this week has been the flavour has been the private banks and Bank Nifty has performed very strongly this week. So there is a catch up trade happening with the large private banks today. We have seen a bit of a volatility, but it's all under 1%, par for the course. The market is digesting some of the up move that it has made post the 4th of June. So I think this should continue the private, large private banks, you know, recapturing their previous, you know, numbers in the stock market pantheon, I think that should continue Aisha. But in terms of value, there are quite a few sectors which are under represented in port in portfolios like IT, like pharma, some of the FMCGS, again they're not the traditional value place because the valuations are normally are high for them. But again, in terms of ownership and the outlook, there should be a consumption boost poster budget. And if the monsoon turns out to be normal, we could see some of the traction returning to the consumption place. So I think those those are available with respect to say a railways or a defense, which is a very highly overvalued story or even the public sector companies as a cohort, which have become quite highly valued, right. Other than that, Ajay, what are the pockets that you're recommending to completely overlook and avoid right now? And would it fall in the same bracket? Although there is some excitement on it because of the Accenture numbers, but it's really not an Apple to Apple comparison. Yeah, still early days in ITI think you can wait it out for a bit more. How eventually this will play out. See, if you look at the AI, the entire AI set, there are the enablers like the semiconductor companies who have done very well, and then there are the companies who will directly benefit. Between them is the Indian IT companies who will enable those chips to be rolled out into data centers and write the programs which will help the end using companies to use AI. So that model is still under evolution. There have not been much gains in that. In fact, On the contrary, the size of the order flows has started coming down in it because companies are not willing to give very long term orders or very large orders given the way AI is disrupting the entire industry. But I think over time and over time, I don't mean five years, I think within the next one year you will start seeing the first case studies coming out where Indian IT companies start enabling the hardware. You know the hardware gains are to come into actual industries via some software and that's where I think Indian IT will start scoring. Probably we can wait it out for three months more, but I think we are pretty much done in terms of bottom formation in the IT sector. So if you have a longer term perspective, I think with a year, two years perspective, even now some amount of participation can start and then let's wait for the results starting another 15 days that will start providing us some guidance. But I think that's all we have to see it on one side, the hardware, other side the user industries and the enablers in the middle. And that's where the Indian IT will eventually play a role. Still early days. We are not getting much traction or much commentary from the managements on that. So will that come via some acquisition or will that come via some case studies where they actually implement it? I think we'll have to wait and watch, Yeah, wait and watch for the IT companies. But in the meantime, there are individual names which are doing quite well, pick up the entire railway ecosystem. So Realtel Corp is up 10%, T Duggar Wagons, the management which we just spoke earlier in the day is up almost 6%. You also rail Vikas Nigam doing quite well for itself. And then IRFC is also moving on good amount of volumes. The stock is up to 2 1/2 percent, but the volumes are quite good on that stock. Separately, you have some of the other names as well which are gaining traction from the urban consumption side. So NASA Consumer is up 6% and Kalyan Jewelers is also sitting with a gain of almost 6%. Within these two baskets, Nurish Urban consumption, the likes of Kalyan Jewelers which is suddenly spike 6% as well as Hanasa or the real companies which are the top bets that you would recommend to buy inside of it because that is where we've seen sideways. So even if I open NASA, if you look at it from the IPO times and that spike, the stock has gone sideways for the last 5-6 months. So would be looking at consumption rather than railways. Railways, the only name which is not rallied is say Rights Limited or IRCTC, which would still look OK at current limits, right? OK, that's the take coming in and some of those railway names. But Ajay, what's your opinion on defense and railways? Definitely not put fresh money to work right now, is it? Yeah. And sure, if you see the kind of most that's happening, you know, last two days we saw fertilizer stocks going up very strongly on talks of inventory getting written off and getting cut into and more business coming through. We are seeing some incipient work happening on the chemical side and some good news coming from Europe also in terms of patents coming through on chemicals by the MNCS and that should help the entire food chain. But if you look at railways and defense already run up so much and multi year order books have been factored in. Now it's the execution challenge. So have the investors already eaten the pie for railways and defense? Not fully, but right now I think there might be one more move up like we saw in railway stocks today going into the budget. There will be some talk of defense CapEx increasing, indigenization increasing, there will be beneficiaries of that. But a large to a large extent at these price earning ratios, I think at least a one year story has got baked in now. Markets are always forward-looking. So another three months, six months, there will be a new story on or new order books coming in and that will help the stocks eventually to rally again. But right now, at best sideways and at worst, you could see a healthy correction given the lofty valuations and how everything has got baked in and now they have to just execute. So you're not having much of a driver in terms of defense stocks, especially railways. Again, there will be a focus in the budget and you will see this kind of a rally nearer to the budget again, but I think most of it is baked in and you might be better off in some other sectors than these lofty valuation sectors. So most of the positives are factored in. It's all about execution now. But time now to take it across to Aunch, who's been standing by to talk to us about the big price volume buzzers. So Granules will be the first stock in focus as the stock has actually given a breakout from its horizontal resistance zone which has been intact from the last two months from around that 480 mark. In addition to this, the stock has also touched record high level and the breakout is backed by heavy volume of over five times its average trading volume of last 10 sessions. Apart from this, Heavils will also be in focus as the stock has given a breakout from its a ten session consolidation pattern with volume of over two times its average trading volume of last 10 sessions. PVI Inox is also in focus as this talk has also given a breakout from its consolidation of around six session with good volume of over three times its average trading volume of last 10 sessions. So these are the breakout stocks based on price volume action. Now apart from this breakout stock. So there are high chances of Chamber Fertilizer, Steel Authority and granules getting into banned list for Monday. So keep an eye on these stocks of those names flying around. In fact, Kunal, let's pick up on PVR then. You know, hasn't moved a whole lot and suddenly this spur of four odd percent coming in today. Yeah, this is a good move for PVR because this establishes a double bottom at place for the stock. The similar patterns was observed for PVR in June, July 2023 when the stock was almost at 1500 levels, 14601470 approximately. And from there, what started off was almost a three four month rally with the stock look off till I think 18118 fifteen mark. So I think it's a very similar kind of a price pattern for PVR. The good part about the stock so far is that the indicators have solid already started to get into a breakout mode for PVR, which means that it may not be a single day move for the stock, but it should see a follow through up move. The nearest resistance for the stock is now the 200 day moving average, which I think is current level at current level is placed at 1520 approximately for the stock on the spot levels, which means the first upside which you're looking out for is at least another 7080 pointer upside for PVR where it meets the first resistance. And post that, we could be looking at much higher targets for the stock. OK, So that's about PVR, INOX and the kind of up move that we're seeing on that one. But in the meantime, Calangelis as we flagged off is flying away. APL Apollo tubes has seen quite a bit of traction. Then PTM 2 after seeing that move on Hanasa is actually inching higher. Sarah Sanitary where up 10%. You also have GIC which is actually doing quite well. Raymond started with a gap up of almost 11%, now up almost 4% in that entire insurance space is quite excited ahead of the GST meeting tomorrow. Maybe we can bring in Anurag to talk to us about what the expectations are. Because for GST, of course, a lot of these fertilizer companies, online gaming companies, insurance companies are going to be in focus. The expectation is that there might be some streamlining of the GST rates. Let me take it across to Anurag to get the story as to what the insurance sector could be eyeing from this GST meeting. After a long gap, GST Council meeting is happening and general insurance industry is also expecting clarity on few issues industry is facing from last 5-6 years and as per our sources this time industry officials also called for GST Council meeting and one major issue industries seeking clarity is on salvage value deduction related to the motor insurance claim. So, presently insurance industry is not paying GST on a salvage value deduction. But tax officials are claiming that salvage value deductions as a sales and taxing it at 18%. Last year in August 2023, ICICI Lombard got a tax demand notice of 273 crore related to GST on salvage value deduction. So industry is hoping clarity on salvage value deduction. Other major issue is LED industries hoping to get clarity is on GST on Co insurance premium. Around 20 insurance companies has got demand notice from GST department of 15,000 crore and in March 2024 this year insurance companies approached the Bombay High Court also also because as per insurance companies, GST on Co insurance will lead to double taxation. So insurance companies are expecting a clarity on GST on Co insurance also. So if insurance industry get the clarity on those these two issues, it will be a major relief for general insurance industry. OK, like we flagged off, that's the buzz across what's anticipated at the GST council meeting. But Ajay, in terms of market triggers now what's next? Or do you think the market is now only going to be hooked on the FII floors trickling in? I think a very important date is 26th June. Next week I shall on the Speaker of Lok Sabha. I think that will point towards the strength of the political capital that the ruling party is enjoying. So that remains a very important event and if a BJP, you know, preferred Speaker comes in, I think that will give some amount of relief to the markets in terms of political risk outlook. So 26th June is important and then we'll get into the results and the Union Budget. A lot of chatter on the sidelines on the Union Budget. And, you know, that sets us up for more disappointment. Like if you read through the MSP hikes, the government has been quite conservative in that way. And what I might talk to a few knowledgeable people is that really they'll not be spending political capital right now in year one for a few state elections, but they will look at a broader contour. And for that, it's too early. To really bring out much in the budget. So I think we are getting set up for a bit of a disappointment, but the market has factored in that if we maintain the CapEx, the public CapEx, if we maintain the 5.1 fiscal deficit number more or less it tick marks for the market and FIS. Fortunately, now last few days we are seeing a positive flow that should increase especially on the debt side. We have seen good flows coming in and by the end of the month, so as early as next weekend, we should have had some very strong debt inflows coming in. That should help the rupee, should help the RBI bolster its FX reserves even further and it will help the yields to go down South. Some part of the RBI rate cut work will be done by the flows on the debt side. On equity, we have to really still see how soon the US cuts and that will be a big trigger for emerging market flows to take off. And in anticipation of that, around September, you could see FI flows picking up even more than what they are right now. But I think the change has happened over the last 15 days as the political risk has reduced considerably. The uncertainty of the event has gone and we are seeing FI flows coming back. I think that should gather momentum. But the big momentum, big boost will come when there is more clarity on the Fed cut and then emerging market flows come in and we'll get a good portion of that coming into India. Point taken. So that's the view coming in on the market mood right now. But let me take it across to Sharad to get a sense and the mood check as far as the dealing rooms are concerned. Hi, Sharad. Well, yes, in focus is Vedanta. And what we are gathering from dealers is that a blog deal is likely to be there next week. Now interestingly, the promoters are likely to sell 2 to 3% stake in the company and currently the promoters are holding 62% stake in the company. Now recently, the company also approved 1000 crore fundraise via NCD due to private placements and also Vedanta Group has added more than two point 2,00,000 crore rupees in terms of market cap in FY25 as well. There are important triggers also for the stock, the first one being they're expecting a monetization of the steel and normal business in this first half of FI 25. And of course, the market is factoring in the demerger of six arms and the proposed restructuring going ahead as well. Company had stated recently as per media reports that they would be completing the demerger by FI 25 as well. Right, OK. That's all the dealing room charter then. Kunal, just a quick word on what the Nifty and the Nifty Bank positioning should be for the next week going by how today and of course the rest of the week has been. I think maintain the long positions for the indices, maintain the long positions for stocks, of course not to build them as of now because we've not yet hit the lower end of the support for both of the indices. So I think broadly 51 thousand 50,800 for banker fees, a very strong support. So maybe if we tap back into that kind of a support point, that could be a very good advantage for the, you know, banker fee traders to try and get into get into the index. And for the Nifty, I think it's around 23,200 to 50 mark where there could be a strong support which may originate for the index. So maybe another 200 points on the downside in case if this happens on an entry basis, I think that could be a good recovery point or an entry point for index status. OK, point taken. So that's the view on the Nifty below the mark of 23,500, bit of the lowest point of the trading session. But what, you know, shifting focus away from the, you know, capital markets as to what's happening in the startup ecosystem because the Indian tech startups have raised almost $4.1 billion in the first half of this year as the country witnessed 3 unicorns along with 17 IPO's in this. Shalit is joining us with the details of all that funding that these startups have managed to raise so far. Well, yes, today is the International Yoga Day and we are trying to understand the business of yoga and how important it is for the Indian economy as well as the Wellness industry. Now, the Indian yoga industry is currently at a $80 billion worth industry size. As for the reports by the industry, well, we will just get back and get in more info on how not just how big the business of yoga is, but also on the 17 IPOs which are lined up in the next few months or so. But in the meantime, let's also tell you about Zepto. It seems like that's got its plans now and firming up its IPO plans that is. We spoke with Adit Pallicha, the founder and CEO at Zepto. He shared with us the details on his IPO plans. Mission is definitely to be a, you know, large $50 billion public profitable company at some point. That's, that's the stated ambition. And, you know, we want to start as a public company relatively soon and continue to build even when we hit public markets. We don't look at an IPO as a climax. We look at it more as as a stepping stone. And we we're very excited to keep building for the decades to come as a public company as well. I think that most of the, the highest quality consumer companies globally have been public companies and have accrued most of their value in public markets. And so, so we definitely want to go public and we'd like to go public sooner rather than later. Yeah, ambition is hopefully in 2025, but you know, we have to see depending on external circumstances, whether it spills over from 2025 or not. But that's, that's the ambition. You know, obviously you know, don't, don't hold me accountable to that, but we'll, you know, we're going to try to do it as soon as we can. OK. So that's the view coming in from Zepto looking to go public. The target is 2025, but let's see how it really takes off because the others like Swiggy, etc, are already in pipeline for this year. So it's a very, very solid pipeline that we have at our hands with respect to the overall IPO. But in terms of the markets, last five to six minutes left for the trading session and Sarah Sanitary, where by the end of it is seeing quite a bit of traction, 10% higher. While on the losing side, all the fertilizer companies are coming under pressure. And to add to that list, even Torrent Power is down within the fertilizer space. Mr. Bhagga, is there any name that you've been watching out for Oregon? Even the Agri plays or some of these names which were kind of forgotten in terms of an investment idea, looking at anything interesting, sugar, textile, Agri, I think sugar should do well. We are looking for some policy clarity on the ethanol part. You know, you can't have a stop, start, stop kind of a move on that for people to put in plants and to do cogeneration. All those things require some policy clarity and not based on the seasons or the will of the bureaucrats. So I think that's what's right now impacting sugar, but the sector should do well and the ethanol story is strong. We need policy clarity to move ahead. Agrochemicals is finally, I think turning a corner again. The Chinese oversupply and as well as the lack of demand has softened the market. If you look at the kind of moves that are coming on the corn or the wheat prices, that's not very confident boosting right now. There is oversupply and there is softness in the grains prices and that has an impact on the overall layout for within India. There are multiple triggers, especially for fertilizers. We saw that play out and then today all of a sudden we saw the entire sector getting sold off. So a little bit of, you know, wonderment at these kind of moves of 5% or 5% down on successive days on various stories. But overall, the sector is well positioned. The government has made solid moves on the policy front over the last 10 years and that is going to help this sector a lot. So overall, it's a buy on fertilizers, but these kind of sharp moves mean that just stay aside for some time. I think we can wait for policy clarity, wait for the budget to go through and then look at entering into the fertilizer stocks. OK, that's the take. Coming in on some of the fertilizer surnames. Naresh, before we wind down for the week, any trends you see sustaining next week too? It would be banking and financials, which would surprise. So ICICI Bank is one which I would expect to go go forward and break out. So private banking would be the trend going forward for the next week. OK, fair enough. So ICICI Bank looks interesting as a BDSC trade. Kunal, what's on your radar? So I'll go with the two bike calls which are flagged off in the morning. First one is Banusha Martin. That's a chart which is worked up quite well. It's now crossed about the 400 level. So Minton targets of 440. Stop loss remains at 380. Peninsula Land is the other stock which is also done reasonably well. The stock is up, you know, towards 7374 mark, which is the initial target which are flagged off. So I think traders could now revise the targets on the upside to 80. Stop loss could be treated to 68 point taken time now to wrap up the market. So thanks Kunal as well as Naresh for making time and being with us as well as Mr. Bhaga for talking to us about the fundamentals of the market. If you like this video then like, share and subscribe to ET Now.