Mixed opinions on stage 1 of the Tour: From a "full-on alpine stage" to "Van Aert and Van der Poel are favorites"

The first stage of the Tour de France has sparked plenty of debate. It’s neither a prologue nor a simple sprint stage, but a route with 3,600 meters of elevation gain and a downhill finish. Half the peloton dreams of winning the stage and taking the first yellow jersey, but for whom is this double success realistically achievable? IDLProCycling.com spoke with the major contenders, leading to the conclusion: it’s anyone's guess!

When it comes to your Tour pool, it’s beneficial to start with the stage winner on your team, ideally with the yellow jersey as a bonus. All the top names weighed in on the stage, and opinions are divided. Some focus purely on the 3,600 meters of elevation and the seven categorized climbs that will need to be tackled over the course of 206 kilometers from Florence to Rimini. Others see these climbs as less daunting. The last climb, at 7.1 kilometers and 4.8% gradient, is seen by some as manageable.

Who favors the likes of Van der Poel or Pedersen for stage 1 of the Tour de France?

When discussing the first stage, Mads Pedersen's name came up often. "He’s been a world champion and can push himself very hard in a day. It will be challenging for him, but Lidl-Trek doesn’t have a general classification rider. If you think it through, he is one of the logical choices, along with Van der Poel and Van Aert," said Geraint Thomas.

Remco Evenepoel concurred: "I saw Mads Pedersen climb in the Dauphiné, and he did well. I think if he has the legs and can handle the pressure of a team like UAE-Team Emirates, then he is, in my eyes, the top favorite for the stage win. But I also think of Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel if they are in top form. If UAE goes bananas from the first climb, there will be a small group at the finish. If the race unfolds as I think, then Pedersen is the favorite, with Wout and Mathieu behind."

Any more supporters for the likes of Pedersen? "I wouldn’t be surprised if he can sprint for it. He was really good in the Dauphiné. We will support him and he has a good chance," said Lidl-Trek teammate Giulio Ciccone. Pedersen himself is ready for the challenge. "We’ll go for it, especially without a general classification rider. It would be strange not to try, but it will be on or over the limit. The stars have to align, but we won’t give up beforehand. However, there’s a difference between trying and actually winning," Pedersen noted.

"It’s a gamble. I’m not saying I can win. It also depends on the other teams," continued the Dane. "If UAE wants to win and goes all out from the base of the climb, I have no chance. We need to see what the situation is like at the top of the last climb, and whether we can recover. We can talk about it for hours, but we’ll see on Saturday."

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Mads Pedersen

Who favors the Pogacar category for stage 1 of the Tour de France?

While many riders are eyeing UAE-Team Emirates, there are plenty who feel they should also have the legs to try something themselves. Think of Tom Pidcock, who dreams of the yellow jersey with INEOS Grenadiers. "I feel very good and know I’m in good form. Yellow in the opening weekend is possible. I’ve been dreaming of it and working hard for it over the past months. Many guys have the same dream, so it won’t be easy. But we will definitely go for it."

We hear similar sentiments from Maxim Van Gils: "Hopefully we’ll reach the finish in a small group, and I have a fast sprint. The first stage offers a course that suits me quite well. Many riders will have marked this stage on their calendars. It’s somewhat like the Ardennes. The San Marino climb isn’t too steep and normally it descends towards the finish afterwards. The climb before that is quite tough. Sprinting in a small group would be ideal."

A combination of climbing legs and sprint power is needed. Van der Poel cautiously downplayed his chances. "It will depend on how the race develops, although I think it might be a bit too tough. We'll see. I haven't gone all in on it. I’ll try to survive, and maybe we’ll sprint with a small group." Top favorite Pogacar expects the same. "That stage won't be hard enough to make differences," the Slovenian said confidently.

Nonsense, countered Danny van Poppel of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe when we ask for his opinion. "I studied the first stage and heard stories of how it is. It’s actually a full-on Alpine stage. We don’t finish uphill, but it will be intense. Whether Pedersen will survive, I doubt it. That’s very ambitious, as I am thinking more along the lines of the general classification contenders. If they start to shake things up, not many will be able to follow, like on day one in the Giro."

There are also many riders who might fall between two stools. Think of Alberto Bettiol... "I want to do well for my team and for family and friends along the course. But I have to be realistic. The yellow jersey is at stake, and I know that the first stage of a grand tour is always stressful and tough. If we arrive in a small group, then guys like Van Aert and Van der Poel are faster in the sprint. And if they’re not there, there’s always Tadej Pogacar. He can do everything, undoubtedly even make a good pasta and espresso. So, he can also sprint, and I have to see what I can do."