‘It’s going to be tight’: Macron’s centrists struggle to deter voters from backing far right

Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, the French secretary of state tasked with citizenship, told voters at an Armenian church in Marseille that concerns about the election had left her mother ‘in tears’ daily. Photograph: Anthony Micallef/The Guardian

Standing in a courtyard framed by the white walls of one of Marseille’s Armenian churches, Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, France’s secretary of state tasked with citizenship, took a deep breath, choosing her words carefully as she addressed a voter who had admitted she was considering switching allegiances to the far right.

Agresti-Roubache, born to a family with Algerian roots, led with the heart, describing how concerns over the snap parliamentary election results had left her elderly mother “in tears” daily. When the tactic proved futile, she changed tack. “When you don’t have power, you can say whatever people want to hear,” said Agresti-Roubache.

It was a hint of the kind of conversations playing out across France as the centrist alliance of Emmanuel Macron, the French president, makes a last-ditch effort to shore up votes before elections in which the far right is expected to win.

Minutes earlier, Agresti-Roubache had addressed a boisterous crowd of 300 people packed into a small room adjacent to the church. Much of her message, seemingly tailored to the city’s diverse roots, was aimed at the far-right, anti-immigration National Rally (RN), hinting at the party’s commanding lead in the polls.

“We are all children of immigrants,” she said. “And if, when our parents arrived in France, the National Rally had had the numbers they have now, none of you would be French. Me neither.”

In keeping with the centrist line that has sought to portray this election as a battle of extremes, she proffered up a few lines that took aim at members of the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, attacking them for downplaying antisemitism and brandishing the Palestinian flag in parliament.

It was a toned-down message compared to that of Macron, who this week said that France risks being plunged into a “civil war” if either of his “extreme” opponents win a majority. Polls suggest his message was largely ineffective, as his three-way centrist alliance continues to trail behind RN and the NFP.

The dire projections, however, were front and centre as supporters mingled in the courtyard after the rally. “I’m worried. I don’t want the extremes to come in,” said Anne-Marie Merlo, who is retired. She brushed off suggestions that voters may be reacting to the rising cost of inflation or perceptions of mounting insecurity. “People are too selfish; they want everything all at once and it doesn’t work like that,” she said.

Others were bracing themselves for what lies ahead. “It’s a bit bizarre,” said the entrepreneur Abde Gacem. “We have no idea what fate has in store for us.”

As Sunday’s first round of the snap elections approaches, many analysts have said the most likely outcome is a polarised parliament where sparring between parties could yield months of political paralysis. “It’s going to be a bit ungovernable,” said Gacem.

Conspicuously absent from the event, in both photos and mentions, were the most well-known figures of the centrist alliance: Macron and his prime minister, Gabriel Attal.

Even Macron’s most ardent supporters were swift to acknowledge the omission. “We can’t lie to ourselves. There’s a lot of rejection of Macron,” said Ismaël Lise, 33, who had joined Macron’s youth wing in 2017 and continued to back him over his stance on Ukraine and vision for the EU. “I don’t really understand it, but I think he came across as someone who was arrogant, who wasn’t there for the French, even if that’s not true. As a result, people have fallen out of love with him.”

Lise hoped, however, that people would cast their vote with local candidates in mind. “That’s the problem. The people who vote against us are going to be thinking of Macron, and the people who vote for us will think of Sabrina and Didier,” he said, referring to Agresti-Roubache and her fellow candidate in the constituency, Didier Parakian. “So it’s going to be tight.”

As Marine Le Pen said she expects her RN party to win an absolute majority, Macron has faced growing heat among his allies over his shock decision to call a snap election. “There is a very strong sense of worry, rage and fatigue,” a former prime minister for Macron, Édouard Philippe, who leads an allied party, told France’s Inter radio on Wednesday. “Many people are disoriented, they don’t know which way the country is going to go, or if its political stability is guaranteed.”

In dissolving parliament, Macron had reportedly been hoping to force voters to confront whether they were ready to hand France to the far right. Recent days have seen his stumbling strategy boosted by an unexpected source: French sport stars.

On Thursday the basketball superstar Victor Wembanyama, who plays for the San Antonio Spurs, became the latest to weigh in, telling reporters: “Of course, political choices are personal, but for me it is important to keep a distance from extremes, they are not the direction to take for a country like ours.”

Days earlier the French footballer Aurélien Tchouaméni had also chimed in, saying he “hates extremes” and that he shared the views expressed by his teammates Kylian Mbappé, who said he was “against extremes and divisive ideas”, and Marcus Thuram, who urged people to vote in order to keep the RN from gaining power.

In Marseille, as darkness began to fall, Agresti-Roubache’s politicking skills were put to the ultimate test as she faced off against a former Macron voter who was now toying with voting for RN. “I’m a little disgusted with politics, I’m fed up,” Anne Michel told the politician, pointing to the killings of teachers Dominique Bernard and Samuel Paty. “We have never seen things like this happen in France … How can we not be fed up?”

As Michel drew a link between crime and immigration, her friend Dominque Manoukian, warned her off stigmatising certain groups. “It has nothing to do with genetics.”

It was a point hammered home by the diverse crowd at the rally, whose roots stretched from Armenia to Algeria and Tunisia, and where the Gucci loafers and Louis Vuitton bags that studded the crowd – not to mention the emcee’s announcement that a vehicle, a Jaguar, was among those blocking the car park – spoke to a country whose strength had long been built by providing opportunities, education and a helping hand to newcomers.

There was little to suggest that a far-right government would be able to do things differently, said Agresti-Roubache, pointing to Italy’s government and its hardline stance on migration. “The country in Europe that has taken in the most refugees is Italy,” she said. “If voting for Le Pen would have solved the problem, wouldn’t we have realised that a long time ago?”

Michel said she remained unconvinced. “I have to think about it,” she said as she left the rally. “But there are still a few days left.”