David-Wilp on the First US Presidential Debate

But it feels like the focus for many is simply just going to be on the two men's physical state. Yes, good morning, Jamala. I do think that this debate will be one of monitoring the physical demeanor of both candidates and less on the substance. But, you know, there is a lot to talk about since these two men are meeting again in just four years. I think most Americans are surprised to see a repeat of two 2020, as is the rest of the world. Yeah, in terms of foreign policy, let me just start there because, again, as we know, former President Trump has floated the possibility of blanket tariffs from the rest of the world, very high towers coming from China. What does that do to US, his relationship with Western countries around the world and with no traditional allies? Well, I think if President Trump returns to the White House, you'll see a resurgence of the America First policy that he touted when he was on the campaign trail all the way back in 2016. And that means that, you know, allies are not as valued. Everything is looked at as a through a transactional lens, whereas President Biden really restored a lot of credibility among allies when he came into the office, but came into office in 2020. He sees America's alliances in Europe and also in the Indo Pacific as sort of a force multiplier. And that's not the case with President Trump. But on trade, both men are quite similar. Both wanna see a stronger manufacturing base in the United States. But President Trump is certainly open to using draconian tariff policies that could, you know, make it very difficult for Europe and the United States. A 10% tariff across the board and 60% tariffs on goods from China will certainly split the United States with its allies because Europe, for example, depends a lot on trade with China. So let me just bring in the Europe angle here. We are just coming on on the heels of these European parliamentary elections. And what we did see was a surge in the rights, particularly in in Germany and France. And I wonder to what extent should President Trump return as president, he would actually find more willing allies in these parties of the rights in Europe than he did in his last term. Yeah, it's interesting that you say that because I think most people thought a year in Europe after the EU vote that all eyes would be focused on November. So President Macron really surprised everyone when he announced the snap election shortly after the EU vote. And there has been a resurgence of the right all across Europe. The center did hold for the most part in Europe in the European Parliament, but one cannot deny that the right had a strong performance and that will hurt countries that are looking to make Europe stronger. Right wing politicians will probably hinder aid to Ukraine, joint spending in Europe for innovation and also of course the Green Deal policies. And President Trump might find kindred spirits in politicians like in the National, for example, the National Rally in France or of course Viktor Orban. Hungary is set to take over the EU presidency very shortly, so this will also split Europe. And it may be hard for Europe to speak in one voice if President Trump would like to deal with countries on a separate basis rather than going through Brussels. So I know that in the past, President Trump has directed very strong words that NATO even threatened to pull the US out of NATO. It feels as though some of that rhetoric has started to calm down. But still, the point there is that he wanted to push other countries within the alliance to boost their defense spending. Do you think there is any risk of the US pulling out of NATO should other NATO countries not actually could commit to those defense spending targets? So when President Trump came into office, he certainly demanded that NATO countries meet their obligations to spend 2% on defense. And many countries started to do so, but not not really enough. It was the war that started in 2022, the full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia that I think most countries realize that they needed to do more for their own interest and spending on defense. And right now, you know, approximately 2/3 of countries in the alliance are meeting that 2% commitment. And countries like Poland are even spending more. And I think President Trump sees that. And there is quite amount of bipartisan support for NATO in Washington. So Trump's threats are not necessarily looked kindly upon among Republican members in the Senate and and in the House. So the rhetoric that he says, you know, he says these things at campaign rallies, that, you know, if you don't pay, then I would invite Russia to do whatever it needs to do. That is not even if the US doesn't pull out of NATO, just the fact that the US is doubting the credibility and the importance of NATO and puts it on shaky ground. And I think that's why most Europeans and are very nervous about President Trump coming into office because is the US going to honor Article 5 if something were to happen? And also, is the US there to to, you know, really continue the success of this incredible alliance that is celebrating its 75th anniversary this summer? Yeah. And then, you know, just to round it up there because it's a natural follow on to our discussion about NATO is how you think a President Trump it should be come back affect the outcome of the Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine war, especially with so much resistance amongst Republicans to keep providing military and economic support to Ukraine. I think, you know, regardless of who comes into the White House, Ukraine and Europeans also realized that most spending on further defense and reconstruction will have to come from European coppers. But of course, President Biden has been a stalwart supporter of Ukraine and has rallied other Europeans to, you know, build a block and make NATO stronger. I mean, NATO has become stronger since Europe has experienced the largest land war since World War 2. Now President Trump, I don't think makes people comfortable, in fact, probably makes people uneasy here in Europe when he says he thinks he can solve the conflict within 24 hours, if that, or 48 hours. And I don't think that necessarily will be advantageous for Ukraine.