Category 4 Hurricane Beryl Strengthening at 'Unheard Of' Rate: Track Path

This National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite image taken at 4:50pm EDT shows hurricane Beryl as it strengthens over the Atlantic Ocean and churns toward the southeast Caribbean on Saturday, June 29, 2024. On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to a category 3 and forecast it could become category 4 by tomorrow.

Storm warnings are in effect for southeast Caribbean islands as Hurricane Beryl rapidly became a Category 4 storm on Sunday, strengthening at an "unheard of" rate for this time of year, hurricane specialist and storm expert Michael Lowry told Newsweek.

Late Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) reconnaissance aircraft reported Beryl had maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour with stronger gusts, upgrading the recently Category 3 storm to a Category 4 hurricane, which is classified as having winds between 130 and 156 miles per hour that can cause "catastrophic damage," according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The latest NHC advisory warned that the "extremely dangerous" Beryl is set to bring "life-threatening storm winds and storm surge" to the Windward Islands, including Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada and Tobago, early Monday.

NHC Director MichaelBrennan emphasized the unprecedented nature of Beryl in a phone interview with Newsweek on Sunday. He said it's "pretty unusual" for a storm to escalate from a tropical depression to a major hurricane this rapidly and "very, very unusual" for a major hurricane to occur so early in the season.

In a similar vein, Lowry told Newsweek in an email Sunday that "the rate at which Beryl has strengthened is unheard of for the time of year, with a 65 mph increase in maximum winds over 24 hours, nearly doubling the threshold for rapid intensification, defined as at least a 35 mph increase in winds in 24 hours."

Rapid intensification is a scientific term defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

He told Newsweek that "Beryl is now the earliest Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, with records extending back 174 years. The earliest we've ever observed a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic prior to Beryl was Hurricane Dennis on July 8th, 2005."

Lowry added that "the typical date of the first major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane is September 1st, so Beryl is a full two months ahead of schedule."

June marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, but it typically sees fewer and less severe storms. Beryl is the second named storm to form in the Atlantic this year. According to NOAA, data from 1851 to 2022 shows that only 6 percent of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin occurred in June.

Brennan said that the early arrival of such a strong storm like Beryl "does portend and it does line up with the expectation of a very busy season." He said the NHC "forecasts up to 17 to 25 name storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, 4 to 7 major hurricanes."

Lowry said: "On its current trajectory, Beryl will be the strongest hurricane to impact this part of the Windward Islands since Ivan in 2004 and possibly the strongest hurricane on record to strike the southernmost Windward Islands." Hurricane Ivan was a Category 3 storm in the region that eventually became Category 5.

Lowry attributed the storm's incredible strength and early nature to a "remarkably ripe upper-air pattern" that Beryl encountered over record warm waters. This resulted in an "unprecedented hurricane for the time of the year," he said.

He also emphasized the importance of the region's warmer waters in the hurricane's growth, "The record warmth also extends well below the surface of the ocean, with an extremely deep reservoir of ocean heat reminiscent of late August and September when we see some of our most powerful hurricanes. There's no doubt the record ocean warmth is a major contributor to Beryl's record intensity."

Brennan told Newsweek that while "it's not just the warm waters, the atmosphere has to be favorable for a system," water temperatures in the area are "about 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal." He noted that this "is a lot, because it takes a lot of energy to heat water up compared to say the air, so with the warming ocean water over a large area by one or two, three Celsius is quite a bit."

The NHC predicts Beryl to "produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas."

As of Sunday morning, the NHC located the storm's eye at latitude 10.6 North, longitude 54.9 West, just over 350 miles southeast of Barbados and 460 miles east of Grenada. The storm has a "continued quick west to west-northward motion," which will bring the storm to southern Caribbean islands.

The NHC warns of a "life-threatening storm surge" that is predicted to "raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet" above normal tide levels in areas where Beryl makes landfall.

Brennan warned people in the area that they have "just a few hours left" for preparations, as Beryl is "going to move very quickly and conditions are going to rapidly deteriorate on those islands as we go through the night tonight and early Monday."

Lowry echoed the NHC's warning, calling the hurricane "potentially catastrophic." He recommended those under warning to "rush final preparations to completion immediately."

Update 6/30/24 at 3:24 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Brennan.

Update 6/30/24 at 1:30 p.m. ET: This article was updated with new information regarding the hurricane's new categorization and comment from Lowry. The article's headline has also been updated.

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