Summer of Soccer best bets for 6/28: Brazil faces the music
Lucas Paqueta of Brazil.
"It's a complicated subject. We've definitely noticed it and we're trying to get used to it as quickly as possible."
These were the words of Brazilian forward Rodrygo just a few short days ago. What could he possibly have been talking about? Jet lag? Quantum mechanics? The fact that all American drinks come with ice in them unless you specify otherwise?
No. Rodrygo was talking about field size: more specifically, he was talking about the 740 square meters of grass missing from America's Copa America pitches.
America's narrow fields are an ongoing problem for Brazil. They're not illegal — FIFA gives a range for acceptable professional field sizes, and the U.S.'s are at the bottom end of that range — but they are certainly quirky in international competition. From Brazil's perspective, America's narrow fields make it harder to create space and thread the ball to attacking teammates.
"In the friendly against the U.S. there wasn't a lot of space," Rodrygo continued. "I like to find gaps between the lines, but there wasn't any room, the opposition players were always close."
That friendly against the U.S. ended in a 1-1 draw; Brazil's next match, its Copa America opener against Costa Rica, ended 0-0. Clearly, America's narrow fields are affecting Brazil's performance. It has to make amends on June 28 against Paraguay, and if it doesn't, it may miss out on the Copa America knockout rounds altogether.
A few hours before Brazil faces Paraguay, though, we'll be treated to a real Copa America spectacle: Colombia vs. Costa Rica. Colombia is the surprise package of the Copa so far; it put five past the USMNT in a pre-tournament friendly and cruised to an easy 2-1 win over Paraguay in Matchday 1. Costa Rica, though? It's been frustrating top-level opposition for more than a decade. Cast your mind back to the 2014 World Cup, when Costa Rica found itself drawn in a group with England, Italy and Uruguay. It was expected to finish dead last; it won the whole thing with room to spare.
So: Colombia and Costa Rica, Brazil and Paraguay. Where are the best bets hiding? We think they're here:
Costa Rica's goalkeeping prowess. Quick: who is the best player to come out of CONCACAF in the last 20 years? For our money, it's Costa Rican goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who had a stellar career in Europe before retiring from the Costa Rican national team this spring. He's handed the gloves over to young Patrick Sequeira, a 25-year-old goalkeeping prospect plying his trade in the Spanish lower divisions, and Sequeira has looked excellent in the Copa thus far. For all of Brazil's whining about narrow American fields, it was Sequeira who did the most to keep it from winning its opening match.
Colombia is an attack-or-die kind of team and will go for Sequeira's goal with gusto. We're not sure he'll keep a clean sheet against it, but we are backing him to make at least five saves at +250. He managed four against the Brazilians— what's one more?
Paraguay's goalscoring troubles. Paraguay has played 12 games since the beginning of 2023; a whopping 10 of those 12 ended with at least one side failing to score, and seven of those 10 ended with Paraguay delivering the bagel. It managed to find the back of the net in its Copa opener against Colombia but we think it'll struggle to do the same against Brazil. We're backing a Brazil win with no Paraguay goals at +110 here. Like the bet but think Brazil aren't all that? Try going big by backing a goalless draw at +1100 instead.
Lucas Paqueta's last shots — literally — at redemption. We haven't covered Paqueta heavily in this space, but we're due for a deep dive on him: the Brazil and West Ham attacker is in the center of a serious betting scandal in which he allegedly collected yellow cards on purpose after encouraging hometown friends to bet on him getting them. Investigations into Paqueta's involvement are ongoing, but if he's found guilty, he could be in serious trouble, and many believe this Copa America could be his last tournament playing for Brazil.
For all his off-field drama, Paqueta has performed well for Brazil on it. He was one of Brazil's better attackers in the Costa Rica game and managed five shots over the course of the game. We're backing him to put up at least three against Paraguay at +137.
Colombia vs. Costa Rica will kick off on June 28 at 3 p.m. ET from Glendale, Arizona; Brazil vs. Paraguay will kick off at 6 p.m. ET from Las Vegas. See you there!
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