Trade Setup for June 28: Nifty set for best month of 2024 after conquering 24,000

If there was a cricketing analogy that can be drawn to the Nifty moves this week, its a very simple one - "He / she is batting as if there are no fielders on the ground." That's how the Nifty has been this week. No level has proven to be a resistance for the index. The Nifty on Thursday just posted its best F&O series since December last year.

The Nifty had made a low of 23,350 on Monday, which is when 23,500 was still a significant barrier for the index. By Thursday, the Nifty has closed above 24,000. Even the biggest bull on the index could not have thought that for an index that slipped below even the 22,000 mark on the Lok Sabha election result day, has recovered nearly 3,000 points from those levels.

On Thursday, the Nifty had at least three intraday dips when it fell towards the lowest point of the day. Every single dip was convincingly bought into. The fact that the index closed above 24,000 and near the day's high will give the bulls even more confidence. In fact, after that 6% drop on June 4, the Nifty has declined only thrice, with the biggest single-day decline being 0.3% on June 21.

The Nifty is up 2.3% for the week and is on course to register its second-best week of 2024. In fact, another 1.5% move higher on Friday and the index may just have its best week of the year, only three weeks after the first one. The market on Friday may also react to some key takeaways from the SEBI board meet, where some decisions were taken with regards to F&O entry of stocks and delisting as well.

For Thursday's trading session, foreign institutions were net buyers in the cash market, while domestic institutions were net sellers.

The Nifty has seen building of long positions and with a surge in rollover activities, the bullish momentum can continue in the July series as well, said Chandan Taparia of Motilal Oswal. Till the Nifty holds above 23,750, it can now move further higher towards 24,250 and 24,500. Downside supports are between 23,750 and 23,500.

Apurva Sheth of SAMCO Securities said that with the bulls sitting firmly in the driving seat and multiple factors like liquidity, seasonality and momentum in favour of the bulls, the rally on the Nifty may continue in July and the index can see levels of 24,500 on the upside.

Angel One's Rajesh Bhosale is of the view that this rapid surge on the Nifty has pushed oscillators across major timeframes into overbought territory. While he does not advise shorting the index, he says it is prudent to take some profits as a time-wise or a price correction can be expected in the near-term, which should be healthy for the ongoing bull run. 23,850 and 23,650 are key levels on the downside.

Thursday's move on the Nifty came despite the underperformance of the Nifty Bank, which has been pulling the index higher for a better part of this week and the last. The index briefly crossed the 53,000 mark intraday but could not sustain above those levels, closing nearly 400 points off the highs of the day as some profit booking was witnessed at higher levels. For the week, the Nifty Bank is up 2.2% and is poised for its seventh straight weekly advance.

Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty Bank will face some resistance at the mark of 53,300 on the upside. With a bearish candle on the daily chart, he expects the index to consolidate with subdued momentum. The support on the downside is at 52,200 but a break above 53,080 can take the index to 53,400 - 53,500.

The Nifty Bank has formed the bearish candle near the 53,000 - 53,200 zone, which will act as a resistance, said Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates. The rally on the Nifty bank can extend to 54,000 only if it sustains above the 53,200 mark.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

July futures of these stocks saw addition of fresh long positions on Thursday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:

These stocks saw addition of fresh short positions on Thursday, meaning a decline in price but an increase in Open Interest: