NFC East Playoff Scenarios: Can the Dallas Cowboys Shut Out the Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) warms-up before the NFL game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

After multiple twists and turns, the NFC East will come down to the final week of the season. Both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have had chances to create some separation, but the two teams enter Week 18 tied at 11-5. That means we have several different NFC East playoff scenarios to consider this week.

With the help of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the playoff scenarios for the two NFC East teams.

What Are the NFC East Playoff Scenarios for the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles?

The positive news for both the Eagles and Cowboys is that whatever happens this week, both will be playing in the postseason.

The battle this week is around who wins the NFC East and takes the guarantee of at least one home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend.

The current standings see the Cowboys atop the division based on the fourth level of the division NFL playoff tiebreakers. The Cowboys and Eagles split their two games in Week 9 and Week 14, so they have a 1-1 head-to-head record.

Both teams are also currently tied in terms of divisional record at 4-1 and “record against common opponents” at 7-4.

Where the Cowboys have the advantage is with an 8-3 record in games against NFC opponents. Meanwhile, the Eagles are sitting at 7-4 against conference opponents after their loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week. All four of those losses in the NFC have come in a calamitous last five games for the Eagles.

Both teams face divisional opponents this week, so nothing in those tiebreakers can change. If they both end up with the same result, the tiebreakers will still favor the Cowboys at the conference record level. Therefore, all the Cowboys have to do is match the Eagles’ result this week.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

In contrast, the Eagles need to better the Cowboys’ result. The Eagles beat their Week 18 opponents, the New York Giants, 33-25 at home in Week 16. Now, they travel to MetLife Stadium knowing that they have to, at the very least, tie with the Giants to have any chance of winning the division.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys will finish their season on the road against the Washington Commanders. Dallas brushed side the Commanders 45-10 at home on Thanksgiving but could face a tougher test outdoors in FedEx Field this week.

With wind, rain, and snow expected along the East Coast on Sunday, the Cowboys will hope to take it all in their stride so the NFC East does not take another twist this weekend.

The Cowboys NFC East clinching scenarios for Week 18 include:

• Dallas defeats Washington
• Dallas ties with Washington, and Philadelphia fails to win
• Philadelphia loses to the New York Giants

The Eagles NFC East clinching scenarios for Week 18 include:

• Philadelphia defeats the New York Giants, and Dallas fails to win
• Philadelphia ties with the New York Giants, and Dallas loses to Washington

Simulations of the PFN playoff predictor give the Cowboys around an 85% chance of clinching the division, with the Eagles’ chances sitting at around 15%.

Who Could the Cowboys and Eagles Face on Wild Card Weekend?

There is a fairly wide range of opponents for the Cowboys and Eagles this week. What we know for certain is that whoever fails to win the division this weekend will be on the road against the NFC South champion as the No. 5 seed.

However, we do not know entering Sunday if that will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, or Atlanta Falcons. By the time the Cowboys and Eagles kick off on Sunday at 4:25, we should know the destination of the NFC South crown and where the No. 5 seed will be playing on Wild Card Weekend.

In terms of the division winner, they could yet finish as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NFC. If either the Cowboys or Eagles win in Week 18, they will be locked in as the No. 2 seed. The Lions are also 11-5 but do not have a tiebreaker advantage over either the Cowboys or Eagles.

Therefore, the only way the NFC East winner can be the No. 3 seed is if they fail to win and the Lions defeat the Minnesota Vikings.

As the No. 2 seed, the Cowboys or Eagles would host the No. 7 seed. Entering this week, any of the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, or Minnesota Vikings could be the visiting team next week.

As the No. 3 seed, the only potential opponents for the Cowboys or Eagles would be the Rams or Packers on Wild Card Weekend.

The longer-term implications of finishing as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed come on Divisional Weekend. Assuming the NFC East champion wins on Wild Card Weekend, they would then host the next highest-remaining seed on Divisional Weekend if they are the No. 2 seed.

In contrast, finishing as the No. 3 seed could see the NFC East champion on the road in Detroit on Divisional Weekend. Of course, if the Lions were to lose Wild Card Weekend, the NFC East champion could still host a game on Divisional Weekend.

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!