Duncan Robinson's shooting earned him a $90M contract, but here's what has taken his game to another level
Duncan Robinson’s shooting earned him a $90M contract, but here’s what has taken his game to another level
The Miami Heat should have their own Hall of Fame devoted to the un-drafted players they’ve successfully developed over the years. If they did, two names would have their own wing: Udonis Haslem, who is a 305 god, and Duncan Robinson, who went from a Division III college player to a $90 million contract with Miami in the summer of 2021.
Prior to signing that contract, Robinson had turned himself into a starter for a Miami team that played in the Finals and conference finals in consecutive seasons. He had one job: Shoot the lights out. And he did so in earnest, connecting on 43% of his eight-plus 3-pointers per game from 2019-21.
After the contract, things started to decline. At first, it was more subtle; Robinson shot under 40% from the field in the first year of his new deal, but still started 68 games and hit 37% of his 3-pointers. Last season, he fell off a cliff, connecting on just 32% of his 3s and starting just one game as he fell totally out of Erik Spoelstra’s rotation.
Now Robinson has risen again.
With last season’s starting backcourt of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, both of whom were also un-drafted players, signing big offseason deals to play with the Lakers and Cavs, respectively, Robinson is back as a core cog in Miami’s rotation, averaging over 29 minutes a game with starts in more than half his games — and he is scorching hot, continuing his career-best campaign with a season-high 27 points in Miami’s win over Atlanta on Friday.
Robinson scored 21 of those points in the fourth quarter, becoming just the sixth player to do so this season — joining Giannis Antetokounmpo, De’Aaron Fox, James Harden, Anfernee Simons and LaMelo Ball. Over three minutes, he scored 11 straight. Predictably, two of those buckets were 3s, but the other two illustrated the legit impact Robinson is having as a downhill scorer this season.
Robinson, using the threat of his shot to generate leverage, has shown an ability to put the ball on the floor before, but he’d never averaged more than 2.0 drives per game. This season he’s averaging 5.5 — putting points on the board on more than 51% of those drives.
Once in the lane, Robinson can finish at the rim, hit runners, and even muscle his defender from time to time, and it’s taken him from the one-trick sharpshooter he used to be to a well-rounded scorer who can hurt defenses on multiple levels.
He can turn the corner off DHOs, attack closeouts, and even initiate pick and roll to get downhill. At no point in Robinson’s career (other than his rookie season in which he played 13 games as a two-way player) had he taken more than 9% of his shots at the rim; this season 23% of his shots are coming from inside four feet, per Cleaning the Glass.
The tradeoff has come from beyond the arc. Through his first five seasons, he was almost strictly a 3-point shooter, taking more than 80% of his shots from deep. This season that frequency is down to 64% — still a big number, but again, it’s evidence of a less predictable scorer, which makes him a far more complicated cover.
Beyond his scoring, Robinson is averaging a career-high 3.6 assists. That doesn’t sound like a big number, but it’s 86th percentile among all wings, per CTG, and it illustrates how functional — and at times downright creative — Robinson has become with the ball in his hands. The guy has some honest handle and shake to his game, and he’s been empowered to use it.
Some of this creative opportunity has been born from necessity. As mentioned, Vincent and Strus are gone and the Heat have been hit pretty hard with injuries. Tyler Herro has missed 19 games. Jimmy Butler and Adebayo have combined to miss 16. Caleb Martin 10.
Robinson, meanwhile, has missed just two games. He’s averaging a career-high 15 points on career-best 49/44 shooting splits. With more handling responsibility, he’s sporting a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. When he scores at least 20 points, the Heat, who are the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the league in large part because of Robinson, are 7-0.
All told, Miami, which was once again written off as a legit team when Strus and Vincent effectively weren’t replaced and the Damian Lillard trade didn’t happen, is 17-12 despite all the injuries, and Robinson, who is back to earning that handsome contract, is one of the biggest reasons for that success.