Ranking rookie WRs by who will be the most productive in 2024: Placing Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, more

26/06/2024

The value of the wide receiver position in the NFL has been ascending for years now, and recently the college game has sent an epic class to the league seemingly every draft season. We had a loaded wideout class in 2024 that spoke to both of those points -- three receivers in the top 10, seven in the first round, and 10 of the first 37 picks were receivers .

A new standard has been set for how long it takes for a receiver to produce. Rookie year explosions aren't out of the ordinary.

So let's rank the top five receivers strictly based on who'll be most productive in 2024.

5. Xavier Worthy, Chiefs

Xavier Worthy KC • WR • #1 View Profile

There is no way the Chiefs offered to trade up with the Bills -- easily their stiffest competition in the AFC -- for Worthy to sparingly use him as a rookie or, even less exciting, as a decoy.

And Worthy is not strictly a long-ball specialist. There were some contact-balance flashes at Texas, especially in his final season with the Longhorns when he went over 1,000 yards receiving. But Worthy represents what Patrick Mahomes has been missing the past two years -- when he coincidently won the Super Bowl: a serious speed threat.

The reason Worthy is lower on this list than the glowing first two paragraphs here is because Andy Reid and Mahomes have a proven methodology that has secured back-to-back titles: spreading the football around and maximizing YAC on short-to-intermediate throws. Sure, the incendiary speed of Worthy adds that Hill-ian element to the Chiefs offense once again, and with Mahomes' rocket-launcher arm, I'm guessing he'll find the NFL Scouting Combine's 40-yard dash record-holder on more than a few occasions in his rookie season on one of the best offenses in football.

4. Ladd McConkey, Chargers

Ladd McConkey LAC • WR View Profile

If I've written it once, I've written it a thousand times. And it's gradually become my favorite nugget before the 2024 season. The Chargers have to "replace" 395 targets from their 2023 passing attack. It's 78 targets clear of the No. 2 team in "available" targets for the 2024 season (Bills).

Enter McConkey, whose full name sounds more like the first ever golfer in Scotland than the second selection of Round 2. He's a nifty route-running, fast, inside-outside wideout who exuded efficiency in the SEC for three seasons on highly successful Georgia teams. He also excels after the catch -- 24 missed tackles on his final 88 catches with the Bulldogs -- and will be catching passes from Justin Herbert, who is clearly one of the prolific talents at the quarterback position in the NFL.

Now, Greg Roman will probably reduce the aerial reliance the Chargers have placed on Herbert early in his pro career (for example: he threw 699 passes in 2022. Herbert will likely throw it somewhere between 400-500 times with Roman calling the plays (or possibly a tick more), which does limit McConkey's Year 1 ceiling.) But a sharp route runner with quality hands and bouncy YAC skills catching passes from Herbert is too tantalizing to not place somewhere on this list. McConkey will be a steady, dependable three-level outlet for the Chargers in 2024.

3. Malik Nabers, Giants

Malik Nabers NYG • WR • #9 View Profile

I watched Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers back-to-back early in the pre-draft process. For me and my grading system, it was essentially a no-brainer -- the LSU star was instantly my WR1 in the 2024 class. He's not Tyreek Hill, but I've never seen a 6-foot, 200-pound receiver erupt with his level of explosiveness. He tracked long ball after long ball from Jayden Daniels exquisitely and ran away from SEC defenders with ease before and after the catch.

Sure, the route-running chops aren't Davante Adams caliber. Yet. Neither were Brandon Aiyuk's when he entered the league out of Arizona State in 2020. Now look at him. I got Aiyuk-ish, CeeDee Lamb vibes evaluating Nabers.

The only reason he's not even in the No. 2 spot on this list of Year 1 producers at receiver is the ever-important quarterback situation with the Giants. If Daniel Jones is throwing him the football for 10-plus games, it'll be nearly impossible for even this uber-talented rocket of a receiver to match the production of those at No. 2 and No. 1 here.

As a longtime Drew Lock truther, if he either wins the quarterback battle out of camp or replaces Jones sooner than later, Nabers has a possibility to be the rookie receiver with the most statistical output in Year 1. I know how crazy that sounds, but I really believe that. Lock and Nabers are a perfect match (think: vertical passing).

2. Rome Odunze, Bears

Rome Odunze CHI • WR • #15 View Profile

Odunze has it all. He's large, fast, reasonably sudden relative to his size, can get open with his athleticism, and he has the best pure ball skills -- particularly in traffic -- since Tee Higgins in 2020.

While Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore will siphon targets from the top-10 selection, in a way I love their presence for his short and long-term potential. Odunze will rarely, if ever, see No. 1 cornerbacks. Chicago can align him anywhere before the snap -- imagine him matching up with a 5-foot-9, 175-pound nickel corner in the slot -- to provide luxurious mismatches, and Odunze's skill set is so sizable, there will be mismatches for him everywhere.

Caleb Williams is almost assuredly going to battle through difficult times that accompany rookie quarterback seasons. But he's also naturally gifted enough for those moments to be few and far between. The offensive line in front of him is solidified. Chicago's defense has an upwards-pointing arrow. Odunze is going to be a problem as a rookie with the Bears' completely revamped, new-look offense.

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI • WR • #18 View Profile

I don't believe Harrison Jr. will be magnificently effective after the catch in his rookie season. Heck, he may never be at all in his NFL career. But the emphatic and precise nature in which he runs routes at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds will make him an instant smash hit as a professional.

Throw in that he may be the most naturally gifted ball-tracking wideout I've ever scouted and probably has low 4.3 speed, and you realize that Harrison Jr. can be ridiculous immediately, even if he's not pin-balling off cornerbacks or cutting away from safeties after the catch as a professional.

And Arizona's offense had a glaring WR1 hole. Kyler Murray may be overpaid at this juncture -- seventh-highest average per year and eighth-most fully guaranteed at signing figure among quarterbacks -- but there's no doubting he can move the football through the air when healthy. Remember, in 2020, Hopkins went for 115 catches and 1,407 yards in Murray's second season.

Harrison will be the most productive rookie wideout in 2024. Count on it.