'Punishment drills': How China may be planning to take Taiwan without waging a war

'Punishment drills': How China may be planning to take Taiwan without waging a war

NEW DELHI: China's most recent drills around Taiwan -- just three days after the inauguration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te -- suggests it is working on a blockade strategy against the self-governed island as an alternative to direct armed conflict for the purpose of invading.

Beijing commenced the two days of war games, dubbed "Joint Sword-2024A", as a "strong punishment" for Taiwan's "separatist acts".

The move comes days after Lai said Taiwan "must demonstrate our resolution to defend our nation".

Fighter jets took off from a Taiwan airbase on Thursday as the self-ruled island dispatched aerial and naval forces in response to China's launch of military drills, while Taipei's coast guard warned off Chinese vessels.

Beijing's drills are taking place in the Taiwan Strait and to the north, south and east of the island, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) said.

Taipei's ministry of defence said it had detected 49 Chinese fighter jets and air patrol planes around Taiwan -- the highest number of Chinese aircraft observed around the island in a single day so far this year.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasised that China has the right to take Taiwan, by force if necessary.

However, Beijing's latest drills suggest it might try to blockade and pressurise the island into reunifying with mainland China, which would cost Beijing relatively little and cause less damage on the island.

Analysts said low-intensity military actions such as a blockade could reduce the possibility of intervention by Washington, which is bound by its 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, and could shore up Beijing’s control of the situation.

A risky but less deadly approach

But a blockade approach is not completely without risks.

Experts said the success of Beijing's campaign would be reliant on its ability to prosecute a short and decisive blockade that completely subjects the island to its control before the US can respond and get its act together

If China is unable to suppress and neutralise the Taiwanese air and naval capabilities, forces involved in the blockade will have to expect resistance and potential losses, experts said, adding: "Taiwan, possibly in concert with the US, may conduct an effective counter-blockade strategy if the PLA doesn’t neutralise these forces in theatre, which means essentially widening the conflict beyond just a mere blockade that would be nothing more than symbolic."

The PLA has previously conducted military drills aimed at blockading the self-ruled island in an attempt to pressure Taipei and suppress promotion of what Beijing considers a “separatist movement”.

In August 2022, the PLA Navy launched an unprecedented large, live-fire exercise surrounding the island after then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei. A similar drill took place in April 2023 when then Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen met speaker Kevin McCarthy during her stopover in the US.

According to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, China is normalising these types of blockade manoeuvres so that at some point in the future, an exercise can become an "actual military operation with little or no warning".

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force, and is committed to arming it.

Short-of-War Coercion

As per a recent report, "From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War", China's strategy to annex Taiwan without a war revolves around a concept termed as "Short-of-War Coercion".

This method integrates various elements of national power — diplomatic, informational, military, and economic— while intentionally avoiding large-scale military actions.

The objective is to apply continuous pressure on Taiwan, eroding its political will and social cohesion, eventually leading to a capitulation that favors Beijing's terms.

• Economic Pressure: The PRC can exploit Taiwan's economic vulnerabilities by imposing selective trade bans, conducting inspections on Taiwan-bound cargo, and leveraging economic inducements to influence Taiwan’s business community. These measures are designed to create economic instability and diminish confidence in the Taiwanese government's ability to sustain the economy independently.
• Psychological operations: The PRC can conduct information campaigns aimed at undermining the Taiwanese public’s faith in their government and military. By spreading disinformation and emphasizing the potential abandonment by the United States, China can foster a sense of inevitability and resignation among the Taiwanese populace. The strategic deployment of cyber-attacks and cognitive warfare operations further degrades Taiwan's societal resilience and political cohesion.
• Diplomatic isolation: Beijing can intensify efforts to diplomatically isolate Taiwan by pressuring international organizations and countries to exclude Taiwan from global affairs. The PRC can also exploit the ambiguities in the US’s "One China" policy to weaken American support for Taiwan, thereby fostering a perception of inevitable unification with China.
• Manipulating political elites: Beijing can employ a combination of threats and incentives to sway Taiwan’s political leaders towards favoring a peace agreement with China. By infiltrating Taiwanese political and business circles with agents of influence, China can push for the establishment of a cross-Strait peace commission, ostensibly aimed at fostering dialogue but ultimately designed to bring Taiwan under PRC control.
• Legislative and Judicial Manipulation: Beijing can influence Taiwan’s legislative and judicial processes through targeted political warfare. By encouraging legal challenges and orchestrating political crises, the PRC can weaken the Taiwanese government’s functionality and legitimacy. This creates an environment where pro-Beijing political figures can rise to power, furthering the agenda of peaceful unification.
• Military Demonstrations: Although large-scale military action is avoided, China can still engage in limited military maneuvers to maintain constant pressure. These actions include frequent air and naval exercises near Taiwan, missile tests, and cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure. Such activities are framed as defensive measures, thereby justifying them while simultaneously intimidating the Taiwanese government and populace.

What Taiwan and US are planning against such a blockade

To counter China's SoWC strategy, Taiwan, the US , and their allies are adopting a multi-faceted approach:

• Strengthening Economic Resilience: Taiwan should diversify its economic partnerships and reduce dependency on China. Developing robust economic ties with other democratic nations and reinforcing internal economic policies will mitigate the impact of Chinese economic coercion.
• Enhancing Cyber and Information Security: Taiwan must bolster its cyber defenses and develop sophisticated counter-information operations. This involves not only protecting critical infrastructure but also launching proactive information campaigns to counteract Chinese disinformation and psychological operations.
• Diplomatic Engagement: The US and its allies should increase diplomatic engagement with Taiwan. This includes advocating for Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, enhancing bilateral relations, and ensuring that diplomatic efforts are visible and robust, thereby countering Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation.
• Military Preparedness and Deterrence: While avoiding provocation, the US and its allies should maintain a credible military presence in the region. Joint military exercises, arms sales, and clear strategic communications can reinforce deterrence against any potential military actions by the PRC. Enhancing Taiwan's defensive capabilities is also crucial.
• Political Support and Solidarity: Building strong political support for Taiwan within the international community is essential. This includes forming coalitions of like-minded countries that are prepared to stand against Chinese coercion tactics. Clear and consistent communication about the legal and moral rights of Taiwan on the international stage will help maintain global solidarity against PRC aggression

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