Public opinion in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova 'very much pro-European' despite Russian interference

We are focusing on Ukraine and it's a bit to join the EU in this apropos feature. But first, some insight on what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. This Tuesday, the fight there in the Donbas in the east continues with the Russian forces still bombarding positions on the frontline in Donetsk, Though this Tuesday there are reports Ukraine's special forces struck a major ammo dump some 50 kilometres into enemy territory in Russia's Vorozhinesh region. Meanwhile, it's emerged that Moscow has banned 81 media outlets based in EU countries and apparent retaliation for an EU ban on Russia propaganda media. The use extended the right to stay for Ukrainian refugees until 2026 / 4 millionaire currently registered in the EU. Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic host the biggest numbers now key from Brussels begin official talks on Ukraine's entry into the European Union. President Emmanuel Macron said back in June the 7th while hosting Ukraine's President Zelensky in Paris, that he hoped talks would begin before the end of June. And here we are. A discussion starting in Luxembourg this Tuesday, ending perhaps with Ukraine inside the EU, though Macron already predicted it could take a decade at least, maybe even more. Solange regime with this. It is a long process with no guarantee of succeeding. With Ukraine and Moldova embarking on the lengthy Rd. to becoming EU members, they're in for years of negotiations. For Croatia, the last country to enter the EU, the process took eight years. But last week Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready. The European Union has approved a negotiation framework for Ukraine. We fought for this at multiple levels. This framework sets the format and procedures for our country to negotiate joining. Like the eight other countries applying for membership, Ukraine and Moldova must now prove they meet a number of criteria. First, politically, they must have stable institutions that guarantee democracy, rule of law and human rights, including the protection of minorities. And here Ukraine faces an uphill battle, for it is ranked as the most corrupt nation in Europe according to Transparency International. Brussels has also requested that Kiev better integrate its Hungarian minority. The second challenge is economic. Ukraine has proved it has a viable and functioning economy with the capacity to cope with EU competition and market forces. And finally, the third component is proving that the nation is able to implement the political, economic and monetary obligations set by the Union. Already an arduous, years long process, the war in Ukraine further complicates membership and begs the question whether each nation in the 27 member bloc will one day be ready to welcome the war-torn country. An agricultural powerhouse, Ukraine has much to offer the EU, but even if the war ends, reconstruction could also weigh heavy on its budget. Such questions and terms are a long way off, though. For now, Moldova and Ukraine must begin the process of dozens of institutional and legal reforms as they continue on their path away from Russian influence and towards in the European Union. With that, let's give you one more piece of news before we introduce our guest Vladimir Zelensky, confirming the return of 90 prisoners from Russian captivity. These include some of the men who fought at the Azov style steel mill in Maripol in 2022. This a prison exchange having been negotiated by the United Arab Emirates. We'll bring you more on that as we get it. Let's turn now to Ukraine and its EU ambitions. Tonique Gorgazza joins us. He's George's former minister for Europe and a fellow at the Jacques Delor Institute. Sorta Gazza, thanks for joining us here. Georgia, of course, has its own ambitions to join the EU and this is part of the conversation as well. Tell us why it is such a prize for Ukraine, for Georgia, for Moldova to get into the European Union. Good evening. Yes, these are the three countries among European Union's eastern eastern neighbours who have signed association agreements in 2014 and also who have visa free with the European Union. So these are the countries among the eastern neighbours of the European Union who are closer to, to, to have. They have a European perspective and they are closer to European Union much more than other eastern neighbours. So these countries and their opinion are particularly pro European and they consider European Union as an only viable way for their development, especially when they see threatening Russia. And the fact that this negotiations started with Ukraine and Moldova is also a geopolitical decision from the European side. Because without the war in Ukraine, without this, a large scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, this process would have been much slower and we would not have this negotiation started now. And it's not just the spectre of Russia that weighs on this. It's actually the footprint, isn't it? Because as you say, the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's influence in Georgia with the footprint is there in Abkhazi and Savosatia. And what is happening in Moldova where there are suspicions that Russia is trying to basically manipulate the whole society to turn against the West. This is the thing it's said that Vladimir Putin is more comfortable with Ukraine during the EU than NATO, but that's kind of hard to believe, isn't it? I suspect Putin would like neither to happen first. Yes, Russia considers NATO as a security threat was European Union is also a threat for for Russia as they, as they see it, because it's becoming member of European Union makes these countries much far away from Russia on a political level, on the level of human rights, on the level of democracy, economically, et cetera. So we shouldn't forget that the the the war the in Ukraine started in 2014 after Ukraine, after Ukraine decided to to get closer to European Union. And the maiden revolution in 20/13/2014 was about European Union, it was not about NATO. So Russia is not happy with these countries getting closer to European Union. Now there are specific problems in each of these three countries and Ukraine. We have war in Georgia. Unfortunately, we have a government that is now following Russia's pressure and is sabotaging the the process of rapprochement with the European Union. Why is the population is still very much pro European? We saw this protest in April and in May against this foreign agent law that was a copy paste of a Russian foreign agent law in Georgia and in Moldova. There is still some powerful political forces linked to Russia, financed from Russia, those who support this hybrid, the propaganda war against the European Union. Moldova was also subjected to a severe energy embargo coming from Russia. So Russia still has lots of means of influence to derail these processes. But altogether the public opinions in these three countries are very much pro European. Focusing on Ukraine. One of the big issues is corruption and clearly there are efforts being made to clean things up, but that isn't something that just happens overnight, is it? Could this be one of the big issues? Yes, corruption is one of the biggest issues, especially in Ukraine. But all this process is will be quite slow. It will not European. Ukraine will not become member of European Union in one or two or three years. There are 35 chapters to be negotiated. I said that the the, the fact that Ukraine got European perspective that the negotiations are, are starting now is a major geopolitical decision. Now the technical work will start and it will be much slower. And it will depend on the capacity of Ukrainian government to implement reforms and also on the capacity of European Union, the member states, to accept a new member state. And we see that there is no unanimity, especially when we see countries like Hungary and maybe Slovakia who are who try not to really welcome these negotiations and they are not so ready to see Ukraine becoming member of the European Union. 35 chapters means that there are some very difficult chapters like about agriculture, environment, the rule of law and corruption, good governments, etcetera. And it will take years and years, but the the process is here. We see that there there are countries that have started negotiations in Western Balkans years ago and they are not moving fast like Serbia is. A, is a is an excellent example of this. And I'm even even not talking about Turkey. Turkey is the oldest candidate country and Turkey started negotiations like 20 years ago when there are only a few chapters that are closed, Most of the chapters are not even open. So political aspects will also play a big role in this process. But is the war in Ukraine something that kind of paradoxically is going to work against what Vladimir Putin would like to happen? Will the war in Ukraine actually in some way solidify support for Ukraine to help get through those 35 chapters? Yes, it is already solidifying. And we see the solidarity from the European nations for Ukraine's dozens, if not hundreds of billions of aid going to Ukraine. And also on the other side, Ukrainian nation became much more European and much more also prone NATO since the country is invaded in 2014 and now 2022. But again, there's some technical aspects that cannot be, cannot be, totally cannot disappear only with because of the political will from all the member states. They can be helped by by the political circumstances. But there is still some work to be done. And the things that are quite different from the 7th 1970s or 80s when the country Mediterranean countries became members or even when some Eastern European countries became member in the beginning of the years 2000, there is a overall general feeling of fatigue of enlargement in European, especially in Western European nations. So the countries, the candidate countries should work really hard to convince also public opinions in France, in Germany, in Netherlands for, for enlargement. And these opinions I'm, I'm quoting the three Western European countries are quite skeptical about, about enlargements. And the politicians will not go against the public opinion in these countries. This is the basic rule of democracy. Indeed, with the far right growing in France, that raises the question completely as you've just identified it. Donica Gagansa, we need to leave it there. We could talk about that last question for another half hour, I'm sure, but sadly timed against us. Sir, Thank you for joining us. Donica Gagansa, George's former minister of Europe and a fellow at the Jacques de la Institute. Thank you, Sir, for joining us here. For Apropos on France 24. That's it for now, short break, then eye on Africa. Stay with us for that.