Donald Trump is having a very good few days. Republicans are giddy.

Donald Trump is having a very good few days. Republicans are giddy.

"I think Trump saw an incredibly hot streak," one Republican strategist said.

ByTal Axelrod

July 1, 2024, 6:11 PM

Former President Donald Trump has had a particularly good few days in his bid for a second term. And Republicans are feeling their oats.

A debate that amplified concerns over President Joe Biden's age was followed by a Supreme Court ruling Friday that limited the scope of a federal obstruction statute that is being used in the prosecution against Trump over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Then on Monday, the Supreme Court decided that presidents do have some immunity from prosecution for official acts -- not quite the "absolute immunity" Trump has touted but still enough to offer some legal cover for his effort to overturn his 2020 loss and probably push back a decision in a special counsel case against him until after Election Day.

The wins built on momentum that had been rising from Trump's conviction in New York City at the end of May for falsifying business records to hide hush money payments to an adult movie actress, a conviction that appeared to offer Biden a marginal polling bump but also consolidated Republican support for the former president and helped him erase what was once a yawning fundraising deficit.

"I think Trump saw an incredibly hot streak, lucky streak, whatever you want to call it. It started with the conviction in New York, which then led to an immediate consolidation of the party behind him, and which then resulted in a massive windfall to his campaign, and it has now ended with this case in the Supreme Court," GOP strategist Scott Jennings told ABC News. "And tucked in the middle of it was the most incredible implosion of a presidential candidate in modern political history."

Former President Donald Trump arrives to a rally at Greenbrier Farms in Chesapeake, VA, June 28, 2024.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Trump's upswing comes as polling shows a tight race, with 538's national polling average showing Trump up by just over 1 point, though it remains to be seen how much that changes once more post-debate polling is conducted and released.

And the good news both touches on key vulnerabilities for both Trump and Biden.

One knock against Trump coming into the race, strategists speculated, was his legal exposure and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Republican concerns over the former president's vulnerability spiked after last month's conviction, with some worried that voters couldn't bring themselves to back a convicted felon even as the ruling helped stock Trump's coffers.

Now, however, the Supreme Court helped narrow the cases against him involving Jan. 6 and his work to reverse his loss, even if his legal jeopardy on those fronts isn't completely eliminated.

"I think this just emboldens that case that any claims made against Trump are purely political, and it's going to help, I think, rally the base even more," Axiom Strategies partner Kristin Davison said of Monday's ruling.

Former President Donald Trump gestures as he participates in the first presidential debate of the 2024 elections with President Joe Biden at CNN's studios in Atlanta, GA, June 27, 2024.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

The debate, meanwhile, underscored what polls show is significant voter concern over Biden's age (81 years old) and fitness for office.

The president at times offered meandering answers and even lost his train of thought. He had an open-mouthed, empty stare at other moments when listening to Trump's answers.

The performance was deemed so political harmful that it sparked widespread speculation among party members over whether Biden should be replaced atop the 2024 ticket this year, while it sent Republicans celebrating.

"We've spent three and a half, four years saying that Joe Biden is unfit for the job, and the mainstream media and Democrats have been saying, 'No, absolutely not, you guys are crazy.' And now it just confirmed everything we've said for four years, and no one can refute it," said Nick Trainer, a former Trump administration official and GOP strategist.

Former President Donald Trump arrives to a rally at Greenbrier Farms in Chesapeake, VA, June 28, 2024.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Democrats expressed outrage over the ruling, suggesting the Supreme Court -- stocked with three Trump nominees -- had in general made presidents king and specifically offered Trump a lifeline.

The ruling was a coda on a painful weekend for Democrats, who have been biting their nails down to the cuticle since Thursday's debate.

One source familiar with the Biden campaign's strategy painted a bleak portrait of the president's chances last week. When reached again on Monday before the Supreme Court's ruling, the person was similarly dour.

"I think the polls that come out in the next few days will be important, not just to see the debate’s impact on the vote margin, but also its impact on the president’s ceiling of potential support," the source said.

Even Republicans vocally critics of Trump -- themselves a dying breed -- conceded that the former president was found himself on a good streak.

"Obviously, it's been a good run," said GOP strategist Mike Madrid, who helped found the anti-Trump Lincoln Project and still predicted that "we'll be seesawing back and forth for the better part of the next few months."

The stretch had Republicans so optimistic that some even pondered whether the presidential race was already over, while noting that the party still had work to do.

"Yes, I think it's over, but I still believe that Republicans need to keep their foot on the gas and run hard as though it's not," Davison said.

Republicans also noted that Democrats have less time on their hands to right the ship than it may seem, with it unlikely that worries over Biden would die down by the GOP convention later this month.

"The convention is a $100 million infomercial. All you do is positive out of convention, you don't take on any water at your own convention. So, we're going to be at the end of July here in the exact same situation that we're in today. And that has to be worrying to the Biden team," Trainer said.

Others didn't go quite as far.

Madrid noted that Trump saw record fundraising numbers after his conviction, while Biden saw similar success after the debate, suggesting that both candidates have built-in support even when their vulnerabilities are highlighted.

"It would be a mistake for Republicans to be overconfident and assume that this election is in the bag," Jennings said. "Trump still has limitations, which is that something over half of the general public doesn't like him and will not ever vote for him.

The race "has decidedly moved in [Trump's] favor, that is for sure, and it's obvious that his opponent has extreme limitations beyond which the Democrats have wanted to admit," he added. "At the same time, you can't count your chickens before they hatch. Take it from a chicken farmer."

The race could also be turned upside down should Biden make the surprise decision to drop out of the race and set off an intraparty debate over who should take his spot as the 2024 nominee -- possibly putting forward someone without Biden's vulnerabilities.

Regardless, Republicans boasted that the past few days made a serious splash in their favor, with both strategists from both parties suggesting that even Democrats in down-ballot races could be toppled by the ripple effects at the top of the ticket.

Senate Republicans' campaign arm released an ad Friday highlighting Democratic Senate candidates' praise of Biden's fitness for office after the debate, and House Republicans' campaign arm Monday saying the debate served as "irrefutable evidence" Biden "is experiencing cognitive decline" and that congressional Democrats "have stood by and enabled this crisis due to their own fecklessness and allegiance to their party."

"I think [Democrats] thought this was the game-changing month, and they were right," Jennings said. "But not in the direction they wanted."