Roster preview: How Alim McNeill can earn an extension

29/06/2024

The 2024 Detroit Lions roster preview series continues with one of the more under appreciated players in town: Alim McNeill. He’s had a huge hand in transforming Detroit’s run defense into one of the best units in the NFL, and while he’s flashed some ability as a pass rusher, this upcoming season will see McNeill surrounded by the most talent he’s ever had alongside him—at least on paper.

A former third-round pick in 2021, McNeill is entering a contract year, and he couldn’t have asked for it to happen at a better time with all of this talent added to Detroit’s defense. Homegrown products from his same draft class—Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown—were rewarded handsomely with contract extensions this offseason, so what kind of season does McNeill need to have for Detroit to give him an extension, and what would that deal even look like if McNeill takes another step forward as a pass rusher?

Let’s dig into a review of Mac’s season that was, and the one that lies ahead in 2024.

Previous previews: WR Kalif Raymond, TE Sam LaPorta, LT Taylor Decker, EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, DT DJ Reader,

Alim McNeill

Expectations heading into 2023

The 2023 offseason saw the Lions completely reimagine their secondary in hopes of pairing a more dependable pass defense with a run defense that started to show some tangible promise over the second half of 2022. McNeill was a standout in that respect, helping bolster the run defense by totaling 22 stops in run defense (t-18th among interior defenders) according to PFF. Detroit brought back Isaiah Buggs during free agency and drafted Brodric Martin to build out some depth both next to and behind McNeill, but it would once again be up to McNeill to spearhead the run defense along the interior.

To help Detroit’s defense take the next step, the Lions would need to generate more push up front to effectively disrupt the opponent’s passing attack. Despite the Lions posting a 23.2% pressure rate in 2022 (ninth), the team only registered 39 sacks (t-18th), but McNeill had shown some serious pass rushing chops—most memorably in Week 11 against the New York Giants where Mac had 10 pressures, the most by a 320-pound defender since 2006 per PFF. McNeill’s body transformation was the biggest story of his offseason, cutting his body fat percentage by 13 points in an effort to become a better pass rusher thanks to a leaner frame with more flexibility.

Actual role in 2023

Note: Stats are regular season only unless otherwise stated

13 games (13 starts): 559 defensive snaps played (67%), 55 special teams snaps (16%)

Stats: 32 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, 10 QB hits, 1 pass defended, 1 forced fumble

PFF defensive grade: 88.5 (6th out of 142 interior defenders with at least 187 snaps)

PFF run defense grade: 79.3 (5th out of 142)

PFF pass rush grade: 76.2 (t-21st out of 142)

What promise the Lions run defense hinted at in 2022 was confirmed the following season. In 2022, the Lions surrendered 5.2 yards per carry across 477 rushing attempts, t-30th in the NFL. In 2023, Detroit’s improvement in run defense was staggering: just 3.7 yards per carry against across 408 rushing attempts. Detroit went from a team that ranked 28th in rush defense EPA (0.021) in 2022 to a team that finished fourth (-0.174) in 2023.

It should come as no surprise that McNeill was a big-time contributor and reason Detroit’s run defense took a huge leap from the season before. He continued to build his case as one of the best run defenders in football, posting the fifth-best grade for interior defenders in run defense (79.3) per PFF. No other interior defender for the Lions with at least 30 snaps posted a run defense grade higher than 58.5 (Isaiah Buggs), and the next highest-graded defensive lineman was John Cominsky at 71.0. Brodric Martin was essentially redshirted and used sparingly on game day. Buggs was in and out of the lineup, Benito Jones barely provided replacement-level production, and Levi Onwuzurike was still trying to get his footing after back surgery. In other words, McNeill was the only defender along Detroit’s interior that could be counted on to be a game-changer.

For a second straight season, McNeill showed more consistency as a pass rusher. Although some fans may have been expecting more disruption from McNeill, especially after he committed himself to getting into better shape to get after the quarterback, his productivity and efficiency when rushing the passer both took big steps forward in 2023. McNeill set career-highs in pressures (34) and sacks (5.0) despite missing four games while on injured reserve in December. According to PFF, McNeill was 29th among interior defenders in pass-rush win rate (12.1%)—besting his mark of 7.9% set in 2022.

Outlook for 2024

So what’s the next step in McNeill’s development?

“Probably just consistency,” Terrell Williams, the Lions new defensive line coach, said about McNeill during the final week of OTAs. “The really good ones in this league can play the run and they can get after the quarterback. I think doing that at a consistent level is really what we need to see from Mac.”

McNeill racked up 30 of his 34 pressures in just eight of his 13 games in 2023, or in other words, nearly 90% of his pressures came in roughly 60% of his games, some numerical evidence to the lack of consistency that Williams is looking to help the fourth-year defender reach.

“Mac has got so much ability,” Dan Campbell said. “And I think that he’s one of those that in the way that he is built, and the nimbleness and athleticism, and power that he has for the way that he is, for the way that he’s built—you don’t see that every day.”

McNeill has the unique blend of athleticism and skill, and he’s improved his game in both phases each year since arriving in Detroit, but there’s still another level for him to realize in a contract year.

“We still feel like there is more in there,” Campbell remarked about McNeill’s potential. “He really took a big step last year, we feel like there’s more in there. I know that’s one of the things that Terrell [Williams] noticed right when he came here ... Some of that is by fundamentals, and technique, and just continuing to push. But Mac is one of those guys—I think this can go up another step. Last year was a big year for him.”

Working with a coach as well-regarded as Williams will certainly help McNeill take that next step in his development, but the addition of DJ Reader can’t be understated. Since McNeill was drafted, the most productive pass rusher to play next to him along the interior was Buggs in 2022 when he totaled 20 pressures on 390 pass-rushing snaps—just a 6.6% win rate per PFF. In his previous three seasons, Reader has posted pass-rush win rates of 12.9% (34 total pressures), 11.3% (23), and 9.3% (25). Not only is he easily the most productive and talented defensive tackle McNeill will have played with, but the veteran leadership and craftsmanship he can provide to a player still looking to reach his potential will be invaluable.

“I’m excited to pair with him, see the things that he does well” Reader said about McNeill in his introductory press conference back in March. “I watch him all the time on film, so I’m excited to just get around him and be able to pick his brain, what he likes about the position. Every guy’s got different things they like about playing d-tackle. I got my own things I enjoy about playing defensive tackle. So I just want to talk to him about it, and pick his brain and see what he’s got going on, and what our future holds.”

The other question that remains with McNeill is team-specific: just how much is he worth to the Lions, a team that prides itself on its ability to stop the run? It’s obviously important to the coaching staff that Mac becomes a more consistent player in both run defense and rushing the passer, but how much is the going rate for a player like McNeill—one who has developed and improved year after year, but still has that extra little bit of room to grow his game to the ceiling?

Most recently, New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore signed a four-year, $84 million deal in May with $31.8 million guaranteed. Barmore lines up in more spots than McNeill—as more of a 3-tech through 5-tech in New England—but he can truly be moved all around the defensive line. McNeill can widen out at times when Glenn gets exotic, but less often, so Barmore has some more positional versatility and talent while working off the edge. Teams pay players for pressures, but they pay them a premium for sacks. In 2023, Barmore set a career high in sacks with 8.5 (t-10th among interior defenders), and applied 49 pressures (t-14th) per PFF—and he was no slouch against the run, finishing t-seventh in defensive stops against the run (32) and fifth in run-stop rate (12.2%).

Barmore had an extremely productive third year and got paid ahead of a contract year, and that’s something New England did in hopes of not having to pay him a Christian Wilkins-type deal to the tune of $110 million if Barmore has an even more productive—and just as importantly, healthy—2024. He gets paid now rather than having to worry about missing games like he did in 2022, and if he proves to be more productive, Barmore has incentives he can reach with 55% snaps played and certain sack totals: 10 sacks, $500,000 and an additional $500,000 for 12 sacks. He can earn an additional $500,000 for earning All Pro or Pro Bowl honors.

So if premiums are paid for sacks, McNeill is lagging behind names like Wilkins and Barmore, but he’s proven to be a reliable and consistent run defender. His pass rush has room to improve in those respects, but playing next to Reader could help unlock a level of McNeill we aren’t even expecting to see out of him. Double-digit sack totals for McNeill, while a long shot, aren’t something that should shock you to see in 2024. There’s an awful lot trending in the right direction for this Lions defense, and the man the middle of it all might benefit the most from it; it might be wise for Detroit to hand out one more extension this offseason.