Market favors a second Trump presidency as he is seen as more 'business friendly', says hedge fund manager
So I don't expect markets to do anything really binary based on each president. What I think's going to matter is the policy they're going to employ on a go forward path, you know, with higher inflation, with immigration, with, you know, a number of issues globally, with global politics, with wars. So there's a number of factors at play and I think the attitude they'll have on a go forward basis, we are really determined, you know, where the markets think each president, you know, will be able to deliver. So I think overall, I would say that the market at this point, in my view would favor a Trump presidency because I think they view him more as business friendly. But of course, globally, we also know that he's much more polarizing when it comes to, you know, being, you know, more protectionism, of course, with the United States. So. So there's some give and take there. But overall, I think he would be the the choice going forward here. David, That's exactly my point. This is Christine here, by the way. I mean, China's always a contentious issue with the US when it comes to Biden and Trump. Is this something that's going to be the dominant issue that's going to rear up between, you know, with a debate between these two gentlemen? Yeah. So I think the one overriding theme on both of these gentlemen is they both have pretty onerous policies when it comes to China. So obviously the the relationship is much more fractured at this point. So I don't think, you know, for example, like in past events like this an election you might have one president come in that's more pro China and one for against China. And of course, based on that, even myself, you know, our hedge fund, we might put on positions that would benefit one or the other depending on the outcome of the election today. I think China is, is really, you know, a difficult area for both candidates. So like I said, they're both very onerous towards the country and I think the policy going forward will be as such. So I don't think in in that in that scope that it's going to be helpful. But there's other areas that I said that I think they differ on in a big way. And some are more business friendly, you know, like here in the United States would say energy policy, for example, to to, you know, form President Trump, whereas with, you know, Joe Biden, obviously he's been helping trying to build infrastructure in the United States. So, you know, each president sort of brings their own dynamic. I think the overriding theme for me when we look at global markets today from Livermore's perspective is that each president, no matter who gets in office, seems to be of the mindset that they're not going to do a whole lot when it comes to the deficit. And I think outside, you know, the deficit is the one thing that to me at least, is a, is a great concern of because we're running these huge budget budget deficits. And, you know, you pointed out earlier, Mandy, that, you know, the yen is up to 161 versus the dollar. So the dollar is extremely strong. So I'm just curious to see how this would play out simpler, similar to the French election just weeks ago, is that depending on who, you know, comes into office for the United States, what that means to the bond market and ultimately what that means to the US dollar. And I think that's the key that I'm looking at. And I think with Trump, I think you might see rates go higher because he's going to run a higher deficits and therefore higher inflation.