As Vladimir Guerrero Jr. quietly shifts approach, power returns for Blue Jays

TORONTO — Much of the Toronto Blue Jays’ hopes for a strong 2024 season were placed on the idea that players such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had more to offer than they did in 2023.

In Guerrero’s case, that has been true in a broad sense, as his overall offensive output has been better than it was last year, leading to fWAR total through 80 games that matched his full-season 2023 output.

At the same time, there has been a lingering sense of disappointment surrounding his season, considering he has just 10 home runs to show for about a half season’s work. In a season where a lack of power has been the Blue Jays’ most significant shortcoming, Guerrero’s decline in power production has been tough to miss.

From Guerrero’s exit velocity readings to his Home Run Derby performances, it is clear there is far more power in his bat than the average MLB player, but that’s not what the numbers say this season.

The good news for the Blue Jays is that Guerrero, at long last, appears to be finding his power stroke. The first baseman has three home runs since June 21 — including the longest hit of his MLB career.

It’s generally worth being cautious about power outbursts like this from Guerrero because they don’t tell us anything new. It’s clear that he can hit the cover off the ball, the question is how consistently he can do it and whether those batted balls will get the elevation they need to do damage.

This case is a little bit different because the power we’ve seen from the 25-year-old is backed by a noticeable change in approach. In recent weeks, Vlad Jr.’s game has been channeling some Vlad Sr. energy.

Earlier in the season, the first baseman’s willingness to leave the bat on his shoulders resulted in plenty of walks, but extra-base hits were few and far between:

To be fair to Guerrero, his 132 wRC+ through the first two months of the season ranked 24th among all MLB hitters. That’s solid overall production, but it’s also an offensive profile that wasn’t tapping into a big part of what makes him special. The .295/.337/.547 he’s hitting in June is more in line with what’s expected of a middle-of-the-order slugger.

By getting more aggressive, Guerrero has been able to take advantage of early-count pitches that pitchers often throw in the strike zone, hoping to get ahead of opponents.

In April and May, he swung at just 36.4 per cent of first or second pitches, generating five extra-base hits and a single home run. Since the beginning of June, his swing rate on those early-count offerings is up to 47.5 per cent and he’s generated seven extra-base hits, which include five of the six home runs he’s hit this month.

There are trade-offs associated with this approach, though. As you can see in the chart above, Guerrero’s walk rate has fallen off a cliff, and over the long term he probably wants to be closer to his career average (9.9 per cent). There have been moments when a swing-happy approach has led him astray in recent weeks.

One example is his first-inning battle with Boston Red Sox starter Bryan Bello on June 19. In that three-pitch strikeout, he swung at two pitches in areas classified as ‘Waste’ zones by Statcast.

For a little perspective, the average hitter swings at pitches in those ‘Waste’ locations just 6 per cent of the time and Guerrero did so just twice in the first two months of the season.

That’s a bit of a fluke occurrence, but it’s the sort of thing that probably wouldn’t have happened with Vladdy earlier in the year. There are positives and negatives associated with any approach, and Guerrero’s current style has resulted in more of a stylistic shift than massively improved output. After all, his June wRC+ (150) isn’t a colossal step up from what he did in the first two months (132).

Even if the total gains aren’t groundbreaking, this seems like a step in the right direction for Guerrero. It’s possible that his current aggression is a bit of an overcorrection and it could take a while to find a happy medium on swing decisions.

The best version of Guerrero probably doesn’t swing at as many pitches outside the zone as he currently does — and takes a few more walks. At the same time, even after nearly a month of slugging Guerrero has an ISO (.158), that’s far closer to Ernie Clement’s than his career average (.205). That’s a solid indicator that prioritizing power is the way to go.

Getting Guerrero to tap back into his extra-base ability won’t be enough to save a floundering Blue Jays lineup in 2024, but it could get him closer to realizing the talents that made him a generational prospect and a near MVP.

Today, it looks like he’s got the right idea. His current approach could be nitpicked, but he’s leaning into his most impressive talents.

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