Supercomputer predicts Euro 2024 winner and England's fate ahead of last-16 ties

The knockout stages of Euro 2024 are nearly upon us (Picture: Getty)

After a entertaining and permutation-inducing start to Euro 2024, the knockout stages are almost upon us.

Eight teams were sent home in the group stage – Hungary, Scotland, Croatia, Albania, Serbia, Ukraine and Poland the nations who failed to extend their stays in Germany.

The hosts and Switzerland advanced from Group A, Spain and Italy progressed from Group B while England topped Group C despite three underwhelming performances under Gareth Southgate.

Denmark and Slovenia also made it through from England’s group, while Austria topped Group D ahead of France and Netherlands, who also booked their place in the knockout stages.

Romania, Belgium and Slovakia all went through on the same amount of points from an incredibly tight Group E while Portugal, Turkey and Georgia successfully got out of Group F.

The first Euro 2024 knockout game will see reigning champions Italy take on Switzerland, while hosts Germany are also in action on Saturday, Julian Nagelsmann’s side facing Denmark for a place in the quarter-finals.

England play their last-16 game against Slovakia on Sunday night, before in-form Spain will look to get past surprise qualifiers Georgia.

France face a potentially tricky game against Belgium on Monday while Portugal take on Slovenia, who held England to a goalless draw to clinch a place in the knockout stages.

The final two last-16 games see Romania face the Netherlands and Austria meet Turkey.

Despite struggling for fluency out in Germany, England remain the narrow favourites to win Euro 2024, according to Opta’s Supercomputer.

The Three Lions have a 19.98% chance of winning the tournament, according to the data, and a 81.63% chance of reaching the quarter-finals at the expense of Slovakia.

Opta’s Supercomputer has crunched the numbers (Picture: Opta)

Spain are not far behind England at 17.17%, while Germany (15.83%) and France (13.40%) all have decent chances of a deep run despite being in the tougher side of the draw.

‘England were tipped as the Opta supercomputer favourites before a ball was kicked, and despite some sleep-inducing performances from the Three Lions on the way to topping Group C, they remain favourites to win Euro 2024 as we head into the round of 16 this weekend,’ Opta said.

‘After the group stage concluded last night, the supercomputer has again simulated Euro 2024 10,000 times and it makes Gareth Southgate’s side favourites at 20%. That’s 0.1% higher than their pre-tournament chance (19.9%).

‘A big reason for England being favourites is that they have been placed in the “kinder” half of the knockout stage draw, too.

Spain are second-favourites to win the Euros, according to the data (Picture: Getty)

‘Of the seven other top eight FIFA-ranked European sides remaining at Euro 2024, five are in the other side of the draw, with England unable to meet France (2nd in the world), Belgium (3rd), Portugal (6th), Spain (8th) or hosts Germany (16th) until the final. Only Netherlands (7th) and Italy (10th) are in England’s half, with the Three Lions potentially meeting the Italians in the quarter-finals and Dutch in the semi-finals.

‘The biggest risers in the Opta supercomputer projections for glory at Euro 2024 are Spain, who have seen their chances of winning the tournament jump from 9.6% before a ball was kicked (fourth highest) to 17.2% now.’

England find themselves on the easier side of the draw but will need to improve drastically to become European champions, according to Three Lions legend Alan Shearer.

‘The stats are pretty damning in terms of England creating chances,’ he said on The Rest is Football podcast.

‘When you look at the talent we have got in forward positions – which we all thought was going to be one of our strengths – actually that hasn’t fired at all yet. We can massively improve and we are going to have to.’

Asked what positives England can take from an underwhelming group stage, Shearer added: ‘The positives are we top of the group – we miss a lot of the big hitters on the other side of the draw now.

‘Jordan Pickford also hasn’t had to make many saves. I don’t think defensively is a problem.’

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