Donald Trump's Chances of Beating Biden in Minnesota, According to Polls
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the annual Lincoln Reagan Dinner in St. Paul, Minnesota on May 17, 2024. Polls suggest Minnesota, which has backed Democratic presidential candidates for the past 50 years, could be competitive in this year’s presidential race.
Donald Trump may be closing the gap in Minnesota, a state that has not backed a Republican presidential candidate in more than 50 years, according to recent polls.
Minnesota has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 1972, but Trump's campaign has indicated they believe it could be in play this November as they hope to expand the battleground map. It backed President Joe Biden by 7 points in 2020, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the state by less than two points in 2016, Democrats' weakest showing in years.
Chris LaCivita, one of Trump's senior 2024 presidential campaign advisers, told NBC News in May that he believes the Trump campaign has "a real, real opportunity in expanding the map" in Minnesota, and polls suggest the state could be closer in November.
Newsweek reached out to the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
The most recent poll of Minnesota voters was conducted by Emerson College, on behalf of The Hill, among 1,000 registered voters from June 13 to 18.
In a two-way race, Biden held a narrow lead over Trump, according to the poll. Fifty-one percent of voters said they would vote for Biden, while 49 percent said they would back Trump.
However, Trump had an advantage when other contenders, such as independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr and Cornell West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, were included in the poll.
In that scenario, 41 percent said they would vote for Biden, while 42 percent said they would vote for Trump. Another 6 percent said they would support Kennedy, while 1 percent backed each Stein and West, according to the poll.
Larry Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance in the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek on Wednesday that the race could be competitive.
"I think one thing to appreciate is if you go back to 1972 and look at all those elections where we saw Democrats winning, they were often quite close. The most recent close election was in 2016 when Trump came within a point and a half of winning. This is a competitive state," he said.
He noted that Biden is facing several challenges in Minnesota, pointing to the 46,000 Minnesotans who voted "uncommitted" during the Democratic primary to protest Biden's stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
Those voters could be "quite significant if they don't turn out in large numbers" in the competitive race, he said.
A Survey USA poll conducted among 626 likely voters from June 12 to 16 found Biden with a wider lead over Trump. The poll was conducted on behalf of Minnesota news stations KSTP-TV, KAAL TV, and WDIO-DT.
The poll found Biden leading by six points (47 percent to 41 percent).
Meanwhile, a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey found Biden leading by four points (45 percent to 41 percent). The poll was conducted among 800 likely voters from June 3 to 5.
A McLaughlin & Associates poll conducted on behalf of the Trump campaign found Trump leading by two points (47 percent to 45 percent). It was conducted among 600 likely voters from June 9 to 11.
Related Articles
Start your unlimited Newsweek trial