The Avdija Trade Was A Shrewd Basketball Move
The Avdija Trade Was A Shrewd Basketball Move
An hour before Adam Silver read out Zaccharie Risacher’s name at the NBA Draft, the Portland Trail Blazers hit “go” on a trade to secure 23-year-old Deni Avdija.
I mention his age because after four years with the Washington Wizards, the 6’9 Avdija is no older than some of the rookies selected earlier this week.
Though the price for the Israeli’s services wasn’t cheap, it wasn’t ridiculous either. The Blazers parted with Malcolm Brogdon, this year's 14th pick, the second best of Portland’s three 2029 first round picks and two second rounders.
Some in the Blazers realm met the news with unease and confusion. To those people, I say don’t fret, it was a shrewd move with the benefits likely outweighing the cost.
Here's why.
Assets given up
Former Sixth Man and Rookie of the Year Brogdon arrived in Portland in the second half of the Damian Lillard trade from the Boston Celtics a year ago. While serving as a mentor to Portland’s young group and contributing on the floor, Brogdon was always destined to be moved.
The 14th pick was used by the Wizards to select guard Carlton “Bub” Carrington, we wait to see if he sticks in the NBA. The significance of the two second round picks was brought into focus on Thursday, when the Blazers collected an additional three seconds in exchange for the 34th pick.
Perhaps the most contentious piece was the second most favorable of the Blazers’ three 2029 first round picks. To evaluate their value, let's project where said picks — from the Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and the Blazers’ own — might land.
By 2029, the Blazers’ first round pick obligation to the Chicago Bulls will be well and truly done. If all goes to plan, Portland will have returned to the NBA Playoffs with its pick subsequently sitting outside the lottery.
In Boston, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will still be in their early 30s. Assuming they’re healthy and still Celtics, you’d have to imagine the Boston pick remains quite low as well.
The Bucks pick is the most interesting of the three.
By 2029, Damian Lillard will be almost 39, Khris Middleton will be almost 38 and Brook Lopez will be 41. I doubt any of them will still be in the league, let alone playing with the Wisconsin franchise.
Giannis Antotokounmpo will be 34 and likely still impactful but the Bucks have given up almost all of their draft capital so re-building around the Greek Freak will be challenging.
If I had to put money on it, I’d wager the Milwaukee pick will be the highest of the three and most likely to remain with Portland.
The Wizards get either the Blazers or Celtics pick, which is fine if both teams are playoff threats.
At the end of the day, this trade asks whether rebuilding teams need to focus solely on draft compensation. Why not go after a player at a position of need in the same timeline as your young core of the opportunity arises? Someone who has already proven to be a real contributor thanks to actual NBA experience.
The money
Avdija signed a four-year, $55 million rookie extension last summer with the new deal kicking in next week. The team-friendly descending deal sets the final two years of Avdija’s contract under what the projected Mid-Level Exceptions for those years. Let that sink in.
This really helps the Blazers who will owe Avdija — a starting-level talent — a relatively miniscule $13.1 million in 2026-27 and $11.9 million in 2027-28 as the cap goes up.
This year’s $15.6 million also likely gets the Blazers under the luxury tax, following the departure of Brogdon’s expiring $22.5 million. It’s an amount the athletic forward is already outperforming and, given the trajectory of his development, will dwarf in no time.
Who is Deni Avdija?
Son of Yugoslavian national team player Zufer Avdija, the Israeli-born 6’9 wing was taken with the ninth pick in 2020. He was selected after Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and Obi Toppin and before Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith and Tyrese Maxey.
Unfortunately, the Blazers only had the 46th pick (CJ Elleby) that year so the chances of moving into the lottery were pretty slim. But I was keen on Avdija’s game during the pre-draft process, given his versatile skillset and size. Suffice to say, I was over the moon when the news broke on Wednesday and simultaneously shocked at why the Wizards would part with him.
Before entering the NBA at 19, Avdija spent three years as a teenager with Maccabi Tel Aviv, winning the Israeli League MVP the year before he arrived in the US.
Avdija has natural feel, ball handling and facilitating skills with an ability to get to the rim. He can shoot the three ball, with particular efficiency from the corner.
His two-way versatility allows him to play alongside anyone from either the small or power forward positions, pinch hitting as a facilitator while pulling down rebounds and defending.
If the Blazers are sticking with the Scoot Henderson-Shaedon Sharpe backcourt, having Avidja line up at the three makes perfect and complementary sense.
His 2023-24 season
Avdija had a career 2023-24, recording 14.7 points, 7.2 boards and 3.8 assists in 75 games, hitting 37.4 percent from three, 50.6 percent from the field and 74.0 percent from the line.
He did this on one of the league’s most disjointed, talent-free squads. Not even the greatest stat padder could have been as productive or efficient playing within the Wizards’ scheme.
Last season, Avdija spent 54 percent of his time at small forward, 42 percent at power forward and 4 percent at center.
Among forwards, he ranked 12th in assist rate, diming on 17.3 percent of teammate shots. He was fifth on corner three point shots at 48 percent, 24th at the rim at 70 percent and 10th in getting to the free throw line, fouled on 16.1 percent of his shots.
He ranked eighth in defensive rebounds, grabbing 17.9 percent of missed shots, somehow leading the Wizards in that stat from the forward positions.
His impact on the Portland roster
I know this an exercise we do every year but the dearth in legitimate two-way starting small forwards in Portland since Nicolas Batum has been noticeable. The group includes Maurice Harkless, Kent Bazemore, Jake Layman, Trevor Ariza and Norman Powell.
Perhaps, the reason elite small forwards are so scarce is because the position ideally demands skills used by both backcourt and frontcourt players. As such, each of Portland’s former threes had an NBA-level talent but exhibited glaring limitations at the three.
Avdija’s ability to shoot, rebound, defend, put the ball on the floor, get to the rim and create could be the very definition of what the small forward position demands in the modern NBA.
As the current Blazers roster stands, Avdija walks into the starting small forward role, next to Jerami Grant. Some may argue Toumani Camara should remain but while the Belgian might have a slight edge as a defender, the Israeli is the far superior two-way talent.
Avdija gives Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons respite with the ball in his hands and can compensate for Jerami Grant’s deficiencies on the boards.
He gives the Blazers another scoring option when Camara or Jabari Walker can’t hit a shot. Another outlet for Ayton, Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Henderson to put points on the board.
He stretches the floor, which will be a necessity, particularly when the non-shooting rookie Donovan Clingan is on the floor.
Finally, for those worried that Avdija’s arrival might lead to more wins next season, impacting the Blazers’ chances at a franchise-changing talent, take a deep breath. While Avdija is a nice addition, this roster’s youth should more than ensure Portland remains in the lottery.
Conclusion
When the trade becomes official on July 6, the Blazers will have secured a young player on a fantastic contract who may be better than anyone in this draft class.
In exchange, they gave up a veteran guard who was always going to be moved, the last lottery pick in an ordinary draft, a likely late first in 2029 and a couple of seconds.
Draft picks are important but when you’ve got a player of rookie-scale contract age who has shown he belongs in the NBA, then surely that’s the better option.
Avdija has the tools to be a strong role player. I’ll stop short of calling him a future All Star but I challenge anyone to suggest that he hasn’t got the tools to get there.
He’s also come out of a dismal Wizards program where it’s fair to say players weren’t put in a position to succeed. I’m not counting my chickens, but I have high hopes Avdija will be a win for the Blazers on a contract that all 30 teams should be salivating over.
The Blazers will make further moves this summer, but as it stands, they’ve found a starting small forward in the short term and, at least, an above-average rotation player long term.