Prospects of a China invasion

IT will be wiser for the Philippines when dealing with the West Philippine Sea issue or the Philippine-China relations as a whole, not to base its responses solely on policy positions publicly issued by the Chinese government. Policy directions adopted at the level of the Communist Party of China will give the Philippines a more accurate picture of Chinese intentions. In China, even its government is under the absolute influence of the party.

The aggressive character of China's official attitude toward the Philippines will be difficult to change. The geographic position and the perceived weakness of the Philippines both politically and militarily make the Philippines a desired stepping stone to the grand design of the current party chief to dominate its neighboring region. The fundamental shift to have China as a peaceful and considerate neighbor will unlikely happen until a new leadership with less ambition to dominate the world assumes control of the Communist Party of China.

The widely perceived danger of a China invasion of the Philippines or Taiwan is nearing equal in its possibility. In the meantime, Taiwan is succeeding in presenting itself as a harder target for invasion. It effectively combines the commitment of the United States and its allies with the national sentiment of the Taiwanese people to stand and defend their territory and way of life.

The Philippines is also enjoying the strongly expressed defense commitment of the United States and allies not only in the region but among other countries that are equally capable of offering military assistance. However, one essential element is starkly lacking in the target-hardening strategy of the Philippines. It does not have a coherent, self-reliant defense posture. The ample offer of assistance from friends and allies may have inadvertently encouraged the present Philippine political leadership to lean more toward the more convenient policy of total dependence.

The present deterrence strategy led by the US is working. But this will not discourage China from continuing the bullying of the Philippines. A poised invasion of an undesirable external enemy, which in this case is the Philippines is good propaganda for China domestically. This invasion ploy keeps the nationalist fervor of the Chinese people stable and leaning favorably toward the party.

However, China's preparations for the Philippines are such that it could go either way. It could use the Philippine scenario exclusively for domestic propaganda or proceed with invading it. Early on, China had initiated, complete with an almost unlimited state-backed money purse, to infiltrate and deepen its presence in the Philippines.

Frenzied acquisition of strategically located real state at staggering prices, undisguised bribery to control or influence both local and national officials, and the location of an extensive electronic gambling network in the Philippines supposedly rejected by the Chinese government but clandestinely supported by Communist Party operatives were reported among other schemes in recent years.

These systematic infiltration activities, unless checked, can pave the way for an easier or limited invasion of the Philippines. A successful Chinese invasion may not lead to a prolonged Chinese occupancy of the Philippines or the Philippines becoming an added province of China, but this could very well allow China to legitimize its claims in the West Philippine Sea and maybe on some other chunks of Philippine territory deemed important to China's national interest and security.

Compulsory military service

Both domestic and external threats confronting the Philippines can no longer be ignored. The window to successfully overcome these threats is narrowing fast. The longer these threats are ignored, neglected or improperly addressed, the harder and harder it will be for the nation to defend itself from their disastrous consequences.

The Philippines is lacking in national preparedness to meet extreme contingencies such as being invaded by a foreign enemy or war. The Philippines has to foresee that the present capability and size of its Armed Forces are not enough to impress even its allies, even more so its potential enemy. The Philippines has yet to show in no uncertain terms the difficulty of invading it, even when reduced to standing alone on its feet.

As in all wars of historic significance then and now, the prospect of an entire people refusing to be conquered at the expense of their lives earns respect even from their enemy. The impact of an independent self-defense posture enhanced with the commonality of national interests with friends and allies to keep the Philippines free of outside domination will immensely increase the hardening of the Philippines as a target of imperialistic adventurism.

It is most strategic for the Armed Forces to integrate in its arsenal, the bravery and resilience of the Filipinos as a people and nation. The proper defense poster of the Philippines is a picture of the Armed forces together and solidly knitted to its entire people.

The implementation of the constitutionally mandated citizen's army concept as the formal character of the nation's overall defense force has reached its appropriate time. It is time to include in the national army's reserve force the youth of the land that has reached the right age to perform their noble duty of defending the motherland. It is time for the nation to restore the mandatory military service for all citizens.

National political leadership

The government's hesitation to already place the nation in a state of preparedness is indicative of a serious failure in the sound appreciation of the prevailing national security condition.

It is more urgent that the nation weigh the rightness and competence of its national leadership now than when the nation is already facing an imminent or actual invasion or war. In these trying times, capable national leadership is not only essential for the Philippines but also key to its national survival.

The author is a former national security adviser and defense secretary.