Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: Is Marner still a keeper if he gets traded?

As a fantasy hockey enthusiast, one of the things I always watch for during the Stanley Cup Playoffs is who looks like they’ve increased their value heading into next season.

Two players caught my eye with one obvious and maybe one a little more under the radar.

Alexis Lafreniere is the obvious one, scoring eight goals for the New York Rangers in the postseason and looking much more confident with his play. Getting a chance to play with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck proved fruitful for Lafreniere and I think he has 35-goal potential if that line sticks together next season.

The other is Arturs Silovs. He should be the full-time backup in Vancouver next year and there’s upside with Silovs as a Zero G option. The Canucks should be a very good team once again and Thatcher Demko has struggled to stay healthy in the past two seasons. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to think Silovs could play 35 games behind a strong squad. That’s great value as a third netminder on your fantasy team.

Let’s get to your questions:

No question about it. Jeremy Swayman proved he’s an elite goaltender with his playoff performance and he also now owns a .919 career save percentage. The Boston Bruins netminder made it clear that Linus Ullmark was expendable and he is ready to be an undisputed number one. That should pave the way for Swayman to easily set a new career high in starts in 2024-25, hopefully landing somewhere around the 55-game mark. In that scenario, Swayman would have great value on a very structured and defensively responsible Bruins squad.

Who would you rather keep, Jason Robertson or Timo Meier?

This is a tough one, as I think you could make an argument for both guys. Timo Meier has the upside for hits, though he was inconsistent offensively this past season despite a strong finish. Jason Robertson also had a down year offensively, but I suspect he’ll be closer to 100 points than 80 with a little more puck luck.

Meier is intriguing because Sheldon Keefe is taking over the New Jersey Devils and say what you will about his playoff record, Keefe has a proven track record of getting the most out of top players in the regular season. There’s reason to believe Meier could have a career year with the right deployment and if the Devils can stay healthy in the top six.

That said, Robertson is the safer play and has the higher floor. In a worst-case scenario, Robertson should still be around 80 points and 250-plus shots, whereas Meier comes with a lot more risk.

The price shouldn’t be astronomical here, as Patrik Laine hasn’t played anywhere close to a full season since 2020-21 and hasn’t hit 30 goals since 2018-19. Laine also has a significant cap hit, which will limit suitors. Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Don Waddell has noted he’s looking for a hockey trade, but I still think a team like the Montreal Canadiens may have to include a good young player or prospect.

Laine would certainly fill a need for the Canadiens, though. He’s a player that can still score in the right spot and Montreal ranked 26th in goals for last season. Not to mention Laine could benefit their 27th-ranked power play. Laine’s fantasy value is probably at an all-time low at this point, so a change of scenery can’t do anything but help.

What is Wyatt Johnston’s projection for next season?

The sky is the limit. After a 65-point campaign and scoring 10 goals in three rounds this postseason, I really feel Johnston is still only scratching the surface of what he’s capable of from a fantasy perspective. He’s a centre with wing eligibility who’s on a very deep and talented Dallas Stars team. So, I don’t think Johnston is going to slip through the cracks in many drafts this fall.

One thing to point out about Johnston is that he could see increased power play time this season. If Joe Pavelski is indeed retiring, Johnston could end up with more minutes on the man advantage and see a decent uptick from the 1:46 per game he played in 2023-24. Pavelski played almost a minute more than Johnston on the power play last year. It’s very possible Johnston is a 35-goal scorer with 70-80 points if he’s able to stay healthy and continue growing as a player.

It certainly improves it. The Calgary Flames have traded off a lot of assets, with the majority of them on the blue line. Calgary is headed for a rebuild and Jacob Markstrom would’ve struggled to pick up wins in that scenario, as evident from how he finished the season post-trade deadline. Markstrom managed just one win in his final eight games and didn’t have a save percentage above .900 in the final two months of the season.

Now he goes to a Devils squad that I think is in for a major bounce-back campaign. A healthy Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton should easily vault New Jersey back to around a 100-point squad once again and Keefe has an excellent track record of regular-season success. Markstrom should pick up more wins than he did in 2023-24 and I think his overall numbers will improve. The 34-year-old could arguably be a top-10 fantasy option if he gets enough volume and the Devils are a playoff team again.

Does Pierre-Luc Dubois being traded from the Los Angeles Kings affect Quinton Byfield in any way?

It should in the sense that the Kings are likely going to move Quinton Byfield to centre. That means a couple of things for Byfield. The first being there’s still a logjam at centre on the Kings, as Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault could be ahead of him on the depth chart. Second, Byfield had great deployment last season playing mainly with Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, so a move to the middle will likely leave him with two new linemates that aren’t as strong.

It’s also important to point out that Byfield will have more defensive responsibilities at centre, meaning his offensive numbers could take a bit of a hit. Long-term, Byfield is still a great option, but it wouldn’t shock me if his numbers don’t take much of a jump in 2024-25.

Goaltending is the toughest position to forecast in fantasy year-over-year because as alluded to, it can be very unpredictable. If I had to pick five now, I’d say Jake Oettinger, Igor Shesterkin, Swayman, Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

When ranking these netminders I factored in a few things like talent, how good the team behind them is, as well as competition for playing time.

All of these guys should get a lot of volume on very strong teams. You could make arguments for a few others like Demko, Ilya Sorokin and Sergei Bobrovsky, but right now I have them just outside the top five. Demko’s recent injury history worries me a tad, Sorokin lost the net briefly at the end of the season and I think Bobrovsky will lose some starts to Spencer Knight.

I’d probably stick with what you have. David Rittich has been fairly inconsistent throughout his career, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be as valuable as he was last year. Plus, Darcy Kuemoer figures to get a decent shot to take over the starter’s role, so I don’t see Rittich being a clear upgrade over Alex Nedeljkovic. You also still have Bobrovsky who should have solid value and Jonathan Quick was a huge asset last year, too.

How would you rank Leo Carlsson, Matvei Michkov and Macklin Celebrini in a keeper league?

Right now, I think the safest option is Carlsson. I really like the team the Anaheim Ducks are putting together and they are stockpiling a lot of young talent, so I don’t think it’s going to be too long until we see Carlsson really starting to have some major value.

With the other two, it gets a little trickier, but I think Celebrini has a little more upside than Michkov. Given the current state of the San Jose Sharks, though, which we all assume is where Celebrini will end up, it could take him a while before we see him produce significantly at the NHL level. Still, it’s hard to go wrong with either of the three and long term they should all be significant assets on your fantasy squad.

Whether Mitch Marner is traded remains to be seen, but either way, I think he’s a no-doubt keeper. If he stays with Toronto he’s probably a 90-100 point player with even more upside if he’s reunited with Auston Matthews next season. The Maple Leafs also have a lethal power play in the regular season that Marner will take advantage of, even if it hasn’t shown up in the playoffs.

Much of the criticism around Marner is his play during crucial games in the postseason, though it’s hard to quibble with anything he’s done in the regular season. Only six players have more points than Marner over the past five seasons, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Artemi Panarin, David Pastrnak and Matthews. That’s pretty good company. It’s important not to let some struggles in a handful of playoff games impact your fantasy hockey strategy too much.

Now, if Marner gets traded it would obviously change his value, but I’d still keep him. I don’t think he’s simply a product of Matthews as Marner has proven to be an elite talent all on his own. Sure, maybe his numbers drop a little if he isn’t playing with arguably the best goal-scorer in the world, though I can’t see his totals plummeting to levels where you wouldn’t be happy to have him as a keeper.

Marner still has full control of where he moves and he isn’t going to put himself in a bad spot.

Personally, I don’t see Marner getting dealt because he has very little to gain by agreeing to a trade. His best bet is to return and put up good numbers where either Toronto extends him for what he wants, or he can pick any team he wants next summer in free agency. Maybe he even has a career year like William Nylander did when he was playing for an extension and then you’ll be very grateful you kept Marner.

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