Can Gavin Newsom Beat Ron DeSantis? Here's What Polls Show
California Governor Gavin Newsom attends a rally on October 13, 2023 in Los Angeles, California, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on March 10, 2023 in Des Moines, Iowa. Newsom and DeSantis are set to face off in a Fox News debate Thursday, raising questions about what a hypothetical matchup between the two would look like.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and California Governor Gavin Newsom are set to face off in a debate Thursday, sparking questions about what a hypothetical presidential race between the two could look like.
DeSantis is currently running in the GOP presidential primary. Although he was once viewed as the Republican with the greatest chance of taking down former President Donald Trump, his poll numbers have staggered as the Iowa caucuses inch closer. Newsom, on the other hand, signaled he wouldn’t enter the presidential race so long as President Joe Biden is running, even as polls lead to questions from some Democrats about whether Biden is the strongest candidate to lead the party in the 2024 election.
The debate between the two governors, both of whom have been touted as their party’s next generation of leadership, will air on Fox News at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday and be moderated by Sean Hannity. Fox News has said the goal of the debate is to explore their “vastly different approaches” to governing.
DeSantis’ embrace of right-wing social issues including LGBTQ+ rights and the COVID-19 pandemic propelled him to national prominence, while Newsom has passed a series of more progressive social policies, including a sweeping climate change bill and the expansion of reproductive rights in the state.
Ahead of the debate, two polls showed DeSantis leading Newsom in a hypothetical matchup.
A YouGov poll that surveyed 1,000 U.S. citizens from November 20 to 27 found DeSantis with a one-point lead over Newsom, though many voters say they are not sure who they would support in this matchup.
DeSantis won support from 32 percent of the poll’s respondents, while 31 percent said they would vote for Newsom. Five percent said they would vote for another candidate, 14 percent said they were not sure who they would vote for and 19 percent said they would not vote.
This poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a J.L. Partners poll conducted for The Daily Mail in September found DeSantis leading by 4 percentage points. Forty-three percent of respondents said they would vote for DeSantis, while 39 percent said they would vote for Newsom.
Still, seven percent of voters remained unsure of who they would vote for, and 11 percent said they would not vote, according to the poll. This poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 15 to 20, and the margin of error wasn’t published.
Newsweek reached out to DeSantis’ campaign and Newsom’s political team for comment via email.
Details about what topics will specifically be covered in the debate remain unknown, but Hannity previously said he plans to stay out of their way as they debate.
The debate sparked speculation that Newsom may run for president, but he is not expected to launch a primary challenge against Biden. Instead, Biden is facing primary challenges from author Marianne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips, of Minnesota, but he remains the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination.
Trump, meanwhile, also holds a substantial lead over his Republican rivals. A new Emerson College poll found him winning support from 64 percent of Republican primary voters. Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley had 9 percent, while 8 percent of voters said they would back DeSantis.
That poll surveyed 662 likely voters from November 17 to 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
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