Toronto-St. Paul's federal by-election will challenge Liberal stronghold, say pollsters

Toronto St. Paul's residents will head to the polls on June 24th to fill the seat left vacant by long time Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett, and political analysts expect the results of this by-election to be a bellwether of the Liberals fortune in the next general election. We know that Canadians are not happy with the direction of the country, they're not happy with the Liberal government and Darryl Bricker with Ipsos Public Affairs says the issues Canadians care most about are pertinent in this riding, mostly around the issues of cost of living. And housing are no more pronounced than they are in. Writing, like Saint Paul's words, is quite a mix of people who are quite affluent and people who are really struggling to get by and finding acceptable rental accommodations. Of the sum 116,000 residents in Toronto St. Paul's, 60% are renters, according to the latest stats candidate. And there's another factor at play. Almost 10% of voters in this riding have a Jewish background and with the. The dance the federal government and it's been doing in the war in Gaza, that may be enough to tip the scales against them in this violation. But Greg Lyle with Innovative Research Group agrees with Bricker and says the bigger sway for voters will be the cost of living. He adds. Liberal candidate Leslie Church, the former chief of staff to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, has her work cut out to continue the 26 year Liberal legacy in this riding. They basically need to motivate. Their base vote, and the obvious way to do that, is to attack the Tories. So to get people to perceive the Tories as scary, as dangerous, they'll be pulling in volunteers from all across Toronto to support them. In this, they'll have started, probably with a much better list than the Conservatives have. And that all bodes well for them. But if I was betting, I would bet Conservative. Today, the Conservative Party of Canada has nominated financial professional Don Stewart, while Amrit Parhar, who works as a director at a nonprofit, will run for the NDP. If the Liberal Party vote does collapse and progressive voters who are part of that Liberal Party coalition decide to go to the NDP, that it could be a closer race between the Conservatives and the NDP. But I think really the the surprise of the night might be that we end up with a three party race that's closer than we've seen historically Advanced voting in the riding will take place from Friday, June the 14th through to Monday, June the 17th at Saint Clair and Christy. Michelle Mackey, City News.

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