How Can India Still Be Eliminated From T20 World Cup 2024 Semi-Final Race Despite Being Undefeated?

Afghanistan's victory over Australia in the Super 8 match of the ongoing T20 World Cup 2024 on June 23 has left all scenarios wide open in Group 1 in terms of the T20 World Cup semi-finals race. Following India's win against Bangladesh on June 22, Australia needed a victory over Afghanistan to also reach four points. A win for Australia would have guaranteed both teams a spot in the semi-finals.

However, Afghanistan's victory means that all four teams still have a chance to qualify heading into the final round of matches.

Here Are The Scenarios For Semi-Final Qualification In Group 1:

For India: India, with 4 points from 2 matches and a Net Run Rate (NRR) of +2.4, are well positioned in the T20 World Cup standings. For Rohit Sharma & co., the task is straightforward— defeat Australia. This would render the Afghanistan vs Bangladesh match irrelevant to their qualification chances. While it's highly unlikely for India to miss out on the semi-finals from this position, it's not impossible. India could miss out if both Australia and Afghanistan win by significant margins.

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For Australia: Australia, having secured 2 points from 2 matches with a Net Run Rate (NRR) of +0.22, are still in contention in the T20 World Cup standings. Australia must defeat India to keep their semi-final hopes alive. They would then need Bangladesh to defeat Afghanistan.

Even if Australia lose by a narrow margin to India in their final game, they would still remain in contention for the semis. In such a scenario, Australia would require Bangladesh to either defeat Afghanistan by a margin that keeps both teams' NRRs lower than Australia's, or hope for a match abandonment.

For Afghanistan: Afghanistan have 2 points from 2 matches and a Net Run Rate (NRR) of -0.65. If India defeat Australia and Bangladesh defeat Afghanistan, all three teams would be tied on two points each. In this situation, NRR would be the deciding factor. Currently, Australia have a better NRR than both Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

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For Bangladesh: Bangladesh, yet to secure a point from 2 matches and holding a Net Run Rate (NRR) of -2.48, face an uphill task to qualify for the T20 World Cup semi-finals. They would need to win by a substantial margin to surpass Afghanistan's NRR and hope for Australia to lose by a significant margin to finish second. A defeat or a washout in either of Bangladesh's remaining matches would end their campaign.