Yen could be 'bullish' for the second half of the year, FAB says
Look, it was clearly a dovish hold from the Boji think the, the instant reaction you're going to see from the currency is potentially dollar yen retesting that that weakness that it had a few weeks ago at one 58159. I think it's about 15780 as I as I speak. So that's not great if you're if you're a young fool. But thinking of the equity side, we still like equities. I mean, you've got the cheap currency benefits, all those export orientations companies in Japan. Japan is a cheaper way to play AI compared to say the US where textbook stocks are expensive. And finally, think to the second-half of the year to the point that you made. Japan have left open their idea of of QT and and and increasing interest rates second-half of the year. They might be doing that at the same time as the USS patting rate. So that could potentially be finally bullish for the yen in the second-half of the year. What about the USI mean of course at the start of the year you know people were expecting what rate cut bonanza and then there was a big let down. But looking at to some of the data points, the US CPI, PPI as well as the jobless claims that I just talked about with that somehow change the story for you. So yesterday's PPI, it was a pleasant surprise for us, as was the the CPI and U.S. Treasury auction went really well. And I think that's why you've seen this, this rally going into the back end of the week, both stocks and bonds. But we're not getting carried away. We think it's too early to call time on on time for longer. And the reason is because of that growth data. The other side of the conundrum, you've got this, this, this tide of really strong data, whether it be NFPS comfortably above 200K. PM eyes above 50 retail cents, retail sales are remaining. So. So we just think that that that data is too strong and that's why you've seen the Fed take it quite a cautious approach to its top block. And we think it's far too early to put time on high for longer yet.