Braverman and Truss among Tory big beasts at risk from tactical voting

Rishi Sunak’s seat of Richmond and Northallerton is one of several major Tory scalps that could be lost if voters decide to vote tactically on 4 July, a new analysis has shown.

Research by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain reveals that the Prime Minister has a margin of just 7 per cent over his Labour rival, with the polling showing that if 40 per cent of voters in his constituency vote tactically, he could be ousted.

It is predicted Mr Sunak is on course to secure 36.5 per cent of the vote in the seat compared with 29.6 per cent for Labour, but this could be overturned if more people decided to vote tactically.

The PM is one of a number of Conservative big beasts that could be toppled in the general election if enough people focus on unseating the Tories, rather than voting for the party they prefer.

The research shows that Suella Braverman, the former home secretary could also be forced out if 37 per cent of voters in her Fareham and Waterlooville seat choose to vote tactically, while both Priti Patel in Witham and Liz Truss in South West Norfolk could be removed if 32 per cent of voters think tactically.

The figures are extracted from Best of Britain’s own MRP poll of 22,000 voters, which also predicts that several Cabinet members could be in serious danger of losing their seat in this election.

Even without tactical voting, the poll shows that Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt is on course to lose her Portsmouth North seat to Labour, while Robert Jenrick could lose in Newark, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield and Home Secretary James Cleverly in Braintree in Essex.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also in significant trouble from the Liberal Democrats in his Godalming and Ash seat, which would make him the first chancellor to lose their seat at an election.

The study also shows that ex-prime minister Theresa May’s former seat of Maidenhead is now a three way marginal between the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats with 43 per cent intending to vote tactically, meaning the “true blue” seat could be at real risk of changing hands.

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According to Best for Britain, more than a third of voters are will to think tactically at the ballot box, rising to 40 per cent in 234 seats and 50 per cent in 31 seats.

The pro-EU think tank has made 452 recommendations for voters to vote tactically in a bid to prevent either the Conservatives or Reform from getting elected.

It is recommending people in Clacton vote Labour in a bid to prevent Reform UK leader Nigel Farage becoming an MP for the first time at his eighth attempt.

Best For Britain said its recommendations have been made in a bid to deal the “heaviest possible electoral defeat for the Government, to keep them out of power for a decade and to avoid the election of Reform UK MPs”.

Its suggestions follow a Survation study based on more than 40,000 surveys, which indicated that Labour is ahead in 456 seats – and on course for a 262-seat majority – while the Tories could win just 72.

Survation used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model results in constituencies. It polled 42,269 people online or over the telephone between 31 May and 13 June.

Best For Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said “we are now a nation of tactical voters” and it could be “fundamental” to Labour’s current poll lead.

She told a press conference in central London: “One in five people who say they are voting Labour at this election have confirmed in our polling that they are doing so tactically.

“Labour is not their first choice, they are lending their vote to Labour. One in three Liberal Democrat voters are saying the same.”

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On Monday, the Lib Dems launched their manifesto, followed by the Tory manifesto launch on Tuesday, which included a further cut to national insurance. On Wednesday, the Green Party launched its manifesto, which it hopes will secure them some important seats.

Labour’s manifesto launch on Thursday was interrupted by a protester urging for more policies for youth, but Starmer was undeterred as he announced changes to voting age and confirmed his party’s position on tax and spending cuts.

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