Europe must combat rise of far-right forces

How Europe should combat far-right after European Parliament elections (Photo: Getty Images)

Former advisor to the President of the European Commission, Philip Legrain, tells about how Europeans should react to the successes of far-right parties in the recent European Parliament elections.

LONDON – Far-right populist parties have shown exceptional results in the European Parliament elections, garnering the majority of votes in France, Italy, and three other countries. They secured nearly a quarter of the seats in Parliament, trailing only the center-right.

Given that Europe is already experiencing the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the threat of Donald Trump's second presidential term in the United States, stagnant living standards, tense social security situations, and extreme weather events, nationalists pose a serious threat. These parties often sympathize with Russian President Vladimir Putin and openly oppose green policies, migrants, and European Union institutions.

Mainstream pro-European parties have three options for response: complacency, co-option, or counterattack. Let's start with arguments for maintaining the status quo. Many Europeans incorrectly believe that elections to the EU are insignificant. Turnout is much lower than in national elections, with many people voting as a protest, often against ruling parties.

Nevertheless, pro-European parties will still hold a majority in the next Parliament. The center-right European People's Party (EPP), led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, secured the majority of seats.

Furthermore, far-right parties are deeply divided. They are split between two rival parliamentary groups, and some lack political affiliation (to existing political groups in the European Parliament - ed.). They differ on views regarding the war in Ukraine, economic policies, LGBT rights, and, most importantly, whether to work within or against the EU system. Such divisions inevitably weaken their influence.

In any case, complacency is dangerous. The center held only because it encompassed not only the EPP and the Alliance of Socialists and Democrats but also classical and social liberals from the Renew Europe group and the Greens. Von der Leyen seemed to have enough votes in Parliament for re-election as Commission president – but only just. Anything can happen in a secret ballot. This hardly indicates a strong and stable pro-European center, especially as the EPP gained support partially due to its campaign against the EU's green agenda.

Even more troubling is that elections have changed the political landscape in key member states. Despite neo-Nazi tendencies and dubious ties to Russia and China, the extremist Alternative for Germany party took second place in Germany, surpassing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats. In France, "National Rally" received 32% of the vote, more than twice the amount of President Emmanuel Macron's allies – a devastating defeat for the president, prompting him to announce early elections in the country. Thus, Europe's two most influential leaders are significantly weakened, leaving the bloc potentially leaderless in facing enormous economic, security, and climate challenges.

The second option is to adapt to the far-right, a common practice at the national level. Many center-right parties adopt rhetoric and policies of the far-right, especially regarding migration (as do some center-left parties). In several member states, they even govern together.

At the EU level, pragmatists argue that some far-right parties can be brought into the conservative mainstream. Look at von der Leyen's courting of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who presents herself as a traditional conservative despite the neo-fascist roots of her Brothers of Italy party and has boosted her rating by cooperating with EU institutions rather than opposing them (a classic trick: after a conflict with the EU institutions that nearly led to Greece's exclusion from the Eurozone in 2015, the country's government with a left-radical majority was eventually drawn into the pro-European camp).

The risk is that far-right parties typically absorb center-right parties, not vice versa. Recall how the EU's approach to asylum seekers shifted from then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel's favorable policy in 2015 to almost total hostility today. Moreover, far-right parties can gain strength as their views become the norm, as evidenced by the Party for Freedom's victory of Geert Wilders in last year's general elections in the Netherlands.

Above all, support for the far-right may backfire. For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party once belonged to the EPP. Now he is a pro-Putin renegade who disregards the rule of law and democratic principles. And while Meloni may be acceptable to some centrists, no one is eager to work with the French National Rally, not to mention the German Alternative for Germany.

This brings us to the third option: to combat the far-right. Macron has decided to pursue this course by announcing early parliamentary elections. Many see this as a very risky move, given Macron's unpopularity and the electorate's hostile mood. France could very well elect a far-right prime minister in the second round of elections next month. In that case, Macron would limp through his final three years in office.

However, in any case, his position has been significantly weakened, and his ruling coalition, without a parliamentary majority, risked a vote of no confidence. Dissolving the National Assembly (the lower house of the French Parliament - ed.), Macron regained the initiative, creating two possible paths to defeat the far-right.

First, the campaign may draw voters' attention to the far-right threat, which could help Macron gather a parliamentary majority from left and right parties united in their desire to keep National Rally out of power. But given Macron's unpopularity, this seems unlikely.

More likely, Macron will succeed in creating conditions for the failure of the far-right. Populists typically perform best when they are outsiders challenging traditional parties, without bearing any responsibility. Look at the crisis that awaited conservatives in Great Britain after meeting Brexit conditions, while Wilders' Party's popularity had already declined when it was in government.

If National Rally wins a majority or leads a broader right-wing coalition, it is likely to struggle with the tough tasks of governance, namely complex fiscal decisions and cooperation with EU institutions. Softening tough policies could undermine the opposition of Rally, and their implementation could plunge the country into crisis. In any case, this will undermine the popularity of party leader Marine Le Pen ahead of her likely presidential campaign. Better to have a far-right prime minister in 2024 than a far-right president in 2027.

Philip Legrain, former economic advisor to the President of the European Commission, senior research fellow at the European Institute of the London School of Economics and author of the book "Them and Us: How Immigrants and Locals Can Achieve Prosperity Together" (Oneworld, 2020).

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024