Putin threatens nuclear weapons if Ukraine wins, but escalation unlikely - ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's statement about the possibility of changing Russia's nuclear doctrine is a direct threat of using nuclear weapons if the West allows Ukraine to win the war. However, it is highly unlikely that this threat will lead to actual nuclear escalation, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

At a press conference on June 20 in Hanoi, Putin stated that Russia is considering making changes to its nuclear doctrine in response to alleged discussions in the West about "lowering the threshold nuclear weapon use" and developing less powerful weapons.

The dictator's statement was likely partly in response to remarks made by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on June 17, indicating that NATO members are discussing enhancing nuclear readiness in the face of growing threats from Russia and China, although Stoltenberg did not mention "lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use."

The ISW reports that the Russian nuclear doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons only in "exceptional cases" of threats to Russia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The ISW suggests that Putin identified a potential strategic defeat of Russia in Ukraine as the "end of [Russia’s] statehood."

At the press conference, Putin added that a defeat on the battlefield would mean the end of the "thousand-year history" of the Russian state and that it would be better for Russia to fight to the end.

ISW experts suggest that with these statements, the Russian dictator aimed to convey that he reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if Russia suffers a decisive defeat on the frontline. In his view, this should deter Ukraine's allies from achieving their shared strategic goal - the defeat of Russia.

The Institute believes that Putin's nuclear threat is part of the Kremlin's ongoing nuclear blackmail campaign, aimed at discouraging Ukraine's allies from making firm commitments to overcome Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, and therefore, it is highly unlikely that it will lead to actual nuclear escalation. A strategic defeat of Russia in Ukraine does not threaten Russia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but it may threaten the stability of Putin's regime, the report says.

The ISW continues to believe that the threat of nuclear escalation will remain a key asset in Russia's ability to manipulate the perceptions of foreign decision-makers.

The ISW maintains that Russia will not be able to defeat Ukraine or the West - and is more likely to lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin.

Putin's statement

In the Vietnamese capital, Putin said that he could not rule out providing North Korea with precision weapons, allegedly in response to Western military aid to Ukraine. The dictator is also considering changing Russia's nuclear doctrine in response to alleged discussions in the West about lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons and developing less powerful weapons.

Stoltenberg's statement

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said that alliance members are negotiating the deployment of more nuclear weapons in the face of growing threats from Russia and China.