In fourth phase, BJP sits pretty in these 13 UP seats
BJP's Unnao candidate Sakshi Maharaj (L) and Lakhimpur Kheri candidate Ajay Mishra 'Teni' campaigning ahead of the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections. (X/ PTI)
BJP's Unnao candidate Sakshi Maharaj (L) and Lakhimpur Kheri candidate Ajay Mishra 'Teni' campaigning ahead of the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections. (X/ PTI)
The thirteen seats going to polls in Uttar Pradesh on Monday, the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections, include constituencies close to the Samajwadi Party's heart. However, for the past two general elections, the BJP has won them all, barring Kannauj, which was in 2014 won by the SP's Dimple Yadav.
While the BJP will be looking to repeat the feat, especially in the SP prestige seats of Kannauj and Etawah, another constituency where it will hope that its gambit – of repeating Ajay Mishra 'Teni' – pays off is Lakhimpur Kheri. The son of Teni, the Union Minister of State for Home, is accused in the killing of four people during a farmers' protest in 2021. While the case is still on, Teni's boss Union Minister of Home Amit Shah virtually promised at a recent public meeting that he would make Teni a 'big man' if he wins.
In the 13 seats – five of them reserved – Dalits and OBCs form the bulk of the vote bank, with Muslims too in good numbers.
Kannauj: 2019 winner BJP: 49.37% votes; Runner-up: 48.29%
The most prominent of the constituencies is Kannauj, where SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is contesting for the fourth time, having won
consecutively in 2000, 2004 and 2009. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, apart from the Aam Aadmi Party's Sanjay Singh, campaigned for Akhilesh in the last stretch.
Rahul Gandhi Lok Sabha Polls 2024
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav during a rally in Kannauj district on Friday. (Photo: PTI)
Akhilesh is up against the BJP's Subrat Pathak, who won in 2019 defeating Dimple Yadav, and the BSP's Imran Bin Jafar. BJP leaders admitted that till Akhilesh's entry at the last moment, replacing his nephew Tej Pratap, they had expected an easy win for Pathak again.
While the BSP's decision to field Jafar may cost the SP some Muslim and Dalit votes – both in big numbers in the constituency – Akhilesh will attract a major chunk of them. He is also expected to get some votes of OBC groups such as the Pals, Lodhis and Kurmis, who are also in substantial numbers.
In its campaign, the SP highlighted the attack by Pathak and his supporters on the Mandi police outpost in Kannauj to “rescue” one of his supporters from police custody on June 2 last year. The investigation is pending.
Lakhimpur Kheri: 2019 winner BJP: 53.63% votes; Runner-up: 34.38%
In Lakhimpur Kheri, Teni is facing the SP's Utkarsh Verma and the BSP's Anshay Kalra. Despite the pressure it came under for Teni's resignation in the wake of the four farmer protest deaths, the BJP did not give in, continuing with the MP, who has been winning elections here starting with the Assembly polls in 2012.
While Teni's son Ashish was in jail for a few months after the incident, he is now on bail granted by the Supreme Court. Besides, the BJP won all the five Assembly falling in the Kheri Lok Sabha seat in the 2022 Assembly elections.
Both the SP and BSP spoke about the 2021 incident in their campaigns. However, their candidates are seen as no match for Teni.
The SP's Verma, who lost in the 2022 Assembly elections, is contesting his first Lok Sabha polls. His best bet would be the Muslim vote apart from OBC support (with Kurmis outnumbering the others).
The BSP's Kalra has never contested an election before, plus is an “outsider”, being a businessman with operations in Delhi and NCR. He has been chosen with an eye on the Sikhs in the seat, about 2% of the population, who were at the forefront of the farm protests. Kalra would also hope to get the Dalit vote.
Etawah (SC-reserved): 2019 winner BJP: 50.80% votes; Runner-up: 44.53%
The reserved constituency houses Saifai, the native village of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav. While that makes the seat important for the SP symbolically, which won it in 1996, 1999, 2004 and 2009, the BJP was the winner in 2014 and 2019. In 1991, the Etawah winning candidate was BSP founder Kanshi Ram.
The BJP has fielded Ram Shanker Katheria, who won in 2014 but had been moved by the party to Agra in 2019. The SP has fielded Jitendra Dohre and the BSP, Sarika Singh.
While Dalits form the biggest group in Etawah, the different OBC groups outnumber them, with Yadavs the most numerous. Muslims too are in good numbers.
Kanpur: 2019 winner BJP: 55.63% votes; Runner-up: 37.13%
The industrial and commercial hub of UP, the seat used to be a Congress stronghold, with Shri Prakash Jaiswal winning in 1999, 2004 and 2009. In 2014, he lost to BJP veteran Murli Manohar Joshi, and in 2019 to the BJP's Satyadev Pachauri.
However, given the Congress's past history in Kanpur, it sought the seat in its alliance share with the SP.
The BJP has fielded Ramesh Awasthi against the Congress's Alok Mishra and the BSP's Kuldeep Bhadauria. All three are contesting their first Lok Sabha elections.
While both Awasthi and Mishra are Brahmins, a community that commands a lot of influence in the constituency, the BSP has gone with an upper caste leader too, a Kshatriya, given their numbers in the constituency.
As per sources, sitting MP Pachauri, a long-time BJP and RSS man, was unlikely to be repeated for crossing the unofficial age bar of 75. Before the party made any announcement, Pachauri himself wrote to BJP president J P Nadda requesting that he be excused. Awasthi, the BJP's replacement candidate, is a former journalist with RSS links.
Alok Mishra runs educational institutions.
Apart from upper castes, Muslims, Dalits and OBCs, especially Kurmis, are in good numbers in the seat.
Akbarpur: 2019 winner BJP: 56.69% votes; Runner-up: 29.86%
The headquarters of Kanpur Dehat district, Akbarpur is the native place of former President Ram Nath Kovind and had been won by Mayawati in 1998, 1999 and 2004. The last two times, the seat was won by the BJP's Devendra Singh Bhole, who has been repeated again.
Rajaram Pal, a former Congress MP from the seat (2009), is the SP candidate. The BSP has given a ticket to a Brahmin, Rajesh Dwivedi.
OBCs are in a majority in the constituency, followed by upper castes, Dalits and Muslims.
Unnao: 2019 winner BJP: 56.87% votes; Runner-up: 24.46%
The BJP ticket from Unnao has again gone to its controversial MP, Swami Sachchidanand Hari Sakshi alias Sakshi Maharaj, who will take on the SP's Annu Tandon and the BSP's Ashok Kumar Pandey.
Tandon won Unnao for the Congress in 2009, but trailed in the 2014 and 2019 elections, which were won by Sakshi Maharaj. But the SP is banking on the popularity of a local strongman of the party, who has the backing of Brahmin and Dalits. Plus, Brahmins are believed to be angry with the BJP for ignoring the community for a ticket again.
Sakshi Maharaj is an OBC Lodhi, who are dominant in the seat, and has even coined a slogan reflecting his confidence: 'Dhai lakh Lodhi-Baaki sab Modi (2.5 lakh Lodhis, the rest Modi)'. As per BJP leaders of the area, he will also corner Kshatriya and Dalit votes for an easy third consecutive times.
Farrukhabad: 2019 winner BJP: 56.82% votes; Runner-up: 34.72%
In Farrukhabad, the BJP has repeated Mukesh Rajput, a Lodh, who are in big numbers along with Shakyas in the seat. Apart from his caste base, Rajput is banking on the Modi and Ram Temple factors.
Rajput, the winner the past two times, is facing the SP's Naval Kishore Shakya, who is hoping to get the Shakya vote. The BSP has fielded an upper caste, Kranti Pandey.
Bahraich (SC-reserved): 2019 winner BJP: 53.14% votes; Runner-up: 40.13%
The seat borders Nepal, with Muslims in a majority, followed by OBCs and Dalits. The BJP has fielded Anand Gond, the son of its 2019 winning candidate, Akshaybar Lal Gond.
With this region often affected by floods due to water released from Nepal, and over 89% of its population rural, farmers play a decisive role here.
Shahjahanpur (SC-reserved): 2019 winner BJP: 58.09% votes; Runner-up: 35.46%
As long as the seat was not reserved, it was known as a Congress stronghold before 2014. After Jitendra Prasada's successive victories from here, his son Jitin won the seat in 2004. Now in the BJP, Jitin is contesting from Pilibhit. The constituency was later won by the SP till the BJP captured it in 2014.
Suresh Khanna, the Finance Minister in the Adityanath government and considered close to the CM, belongs to the district. BJP candidate Arun Kumar Sagar is facing the SP's Jyotsana Gond and the BSP's Dodram Verma.
The BJP will hope to get the upper caste vote here, apart from that of Dalits.
Misrikh (SC-reserved): 2019 winner BJP: 52.05% votes; Runner-up: 42.25 %
In Misrikh, the BJP has repeated Ashok Rawat, who has a strong hold on the seat and was the BSP winner from here in 2004 and 2009.
The SP has very little presence in this seat, despite the fact that with the Dalit vote getting split, it is the OBCs who are a decisive factor in Misrikh, and include Yadavs, Kurmis, Gadariyas, Kaachhis and Kahars.
Sitapur: 2019 winner BJP: 48.33% votes; Runner-up: 38.86%
While sitting MP Rajesh Verma is the BJP candidate, the other main nominees, Rakesh Rathore of the SP and Mahendra Yadav of the BSP, used to be BJP MLAs.
OBCs, Dalits and Muslims comprise a chunk of the electorate, with Kurmis forming the biggest group among OBCs.
Dhaurahra: 2019 winner BJP: 48.21% votes; Runner-up: 33.12 %
In Dhaurahra, the BJP has repeated its two-time sitting MP Rekha Verma. OBCs are in a majority here, followed by Brahmins and Dalits.
Verma is facing some challenge from BSP candidate Shyam Kishore Awasthi, an influential local leader who crossed sides from the BJP after he didn't get a ticket. The SP's Anand Bhadauria, a former student union leader and ex-MLC, is known to be close to Akhilesh. However, the SP has never performed well here.
Hardoi (SC-reserved): 2019 winner BJP: 53.72% votes; Runner-up: 41.20 %
The BJP has replaced its two-time winning MP, Anshul Verma, here with Jai Prakash.
After Dalits, the upper castes are the biggest group here. The SP's Usha Verma is banking on Yadavs and Muslims, while the BSP has fielded Bhimrao Ambedkar.
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