DUP and Alliance leaders Robinson and Long in titanic tussle in East Belfast

General Election campaign 2024

In a contest that pits political big-hitters Gavin Robinson and Naomi Long head to head, both are keen to dismiss talk of a grudge match.

But there is undoubtedly an extra edge to the race in East Belfast this time round after Mr Robinson assumed the leadership of the DUP.

That has made for the very rare occurrence of two party leaders vying for the same seat.

There can only be one winner, and the high-stakes nature of this all-or-nothing battle in the constituency where the Titanic was built will see the vanquished candidate feel the sting of defeat all the more sharply.

For Mr Robinson it would surely raise questions about his fledgling leadership of the DUP; while a loss for Ms Long would prompt some to ask whether the Alliance Party’s surge of recent years has begun to subside.

It is predicted to be a tight-run thing. Mr Robinson, who has defeated Ms Long in the last three general elections, is defending a 1,819 majority from 2019.

But several variables mean a direct comparison with the race five years ago is not advisable.

The 2019 campaign was framed by the impasse over the Brexit withdrawal and led to various other parties standing aside to assist either the pro-Remain Ms Long or the Brexit-supporting Mr Robinson. Only one other party stood back then – the Ulster Unionists.

While Sinn Fein has once again opted out of the race in 2024, the SDLP, TUV and the Greens are taking part in what is a seven-strong field.

Add to that some changes to the constituency boundaries and you are left with a very different tussle from five years ago.

That said, Mr Robinson and Ms Long are still seen as the only two realistic victors.

While jousting in most constituency fights plays out predominantly at a local level, the sparring between Mr Robinson and Ms Long has been amplified on to the regional stage, with their claims and counter-claims aired during the two main Northern Ireland TV election debates.

Mr Robinson, however, insists there is no personal animosity.

“There’s no grudge, none at all,” he said.

“I’ve been a representative of East Belfast for the last nine years in parliamentary terms and Naomi has been there at the Assembly, and we sometimes operate in separate orbits, and it’s elections that sometimes bring us on to the same track, but it’s not a grudge.

“And I put forward not a criticism of anybody else, but a positive portrayal of what we can achieve in East Belfast, what we have achieved in East Belfast, and what we could do in the future.”

Ms Long would only go so far as to describe the race as spicy, as she insisted she is focused on what she sees as her record of delivery, rather than being preoccupied by her rival.

“I think it’s going to be a spicy competition anyway, because it’s going to be a tight contest – we know that there were less than 2,000 votes in it last time around,” he said.

“It’s also a different constituency with the boundaries redrawn, which I think makes the chances for Alliance all the greater. But, at the end of the day, this is down to the people of East Belfast.

“I want to fight on the bread-and-butter issues that matter to them, on the things that I can deliver for them as an MP, and on my record of delivery in the past.”

Mr Robinson’s elevation to the leadership of his party came after the DUP suffered a seismic shock when former leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson quit after he was charged with a range of historical sexual offences in March – charges he denies.

Apart from the sudden departure of Donaldson from the political stage, the DUP has also been under pressure from unionist rivals amid claims it oversold a Government package of measures on post-Brexit trading arrangements that the party used to justify the end of its two-year boycott on devolution at Stormont in January.

Mr Robinson insists he is focused on the future and making further progress to address concerns on the Brexit barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

“It’s been a huge privilege for me to represent East Belfast for the last nine years. The opportunity to serve my neighbours, my community, my friends, the place that I’ve grown up and the place that I live and raise my family is huge. It means a lot to me,” he said.

“But it also drives me forward to make sure that I’m continuing to represent my neighbours in the years to come.”

The campaign backdrop for Ms Long has also been far from ideal.

As Stormont’s current justice minister, she has faced questions over her commitment to devolution, with some accusing her of turning her back on her ministerial responsibilities to shift her gaze to Westminster.

The decision to cancel a planned appearance at a recent event to debate Irish unity has also come in for scrutiny, with rivals questioning whether it was a politically motivated move to ensure she did not alienate liberal pro-Union supporters.

Then there is the controversy over a contentious law passed under her watch which granted anonymity to suspected (though not charged) sex offenders for 25 years after their deaths – a law that was recently ruled unlawful by a High Court judge.

The Alliance leader has rejected criticism on all those fronts, defending her handling of the issues. The former MEP has defeated a DUP leader before in a general election – beating Peter Robinson when she won the seat for the first and only time in 2010 – and is confident she can do so again.

“I’m familiar with the role, I’ve done it before, I really enjoyed my time in Westminster (2010-2015),” she said.

“But I enjoy the job that I do now in the Department of Justice, and I enjoy being in the constituency. So, it’s not an easy decision (to run), but I did it because I believe that, first of all, it’s best for East Belfast if I stand, I believe that there’s a real opportunity for us to deliver a change in the politics here.

“I also believe that it’s best for the party if I stand. I think it increases our opportunities in terms of being able to take an additional seat.

“And I think that overall for Northern Ireland it’s good that we have positive politicians who are focused on the future, and who want to build a better future for people here and give them more opportunities.”

Ulster Unionist candidate Ryan Warren said he felt motivated to stand in a bid to tackle low voter turnout in working-class unionist areas.

“I think one of the main concerns about the constituency of East Belfast, particularly where I live, which is from the more working-class background, is there’s a big issue with voter turnout and voter apathy,” he said.

“So, there’s a real issue in terms of getting those people to vote and I think for too long we’ve been failed and haven’t been given a reasonable voice, and a reason to actually come out and cast their vote.”

TUV candidate John Ross, a former paratrooper, is hoping to attract votes from disaffected DUP voters who believe the party has failed to remove Brexit’s so-called Irish Sea border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

Mr Ross rejects the suggestion that by running the TUV runs the risk of unionism losing the seat to a non-unionist candidate in Ms Long.

“What we’re hearing on the doorsteps from many, many people, and many private messages I’ve had, is that if we weren’t standing, they wouldn’t vote,” he said.

“So, the TUV will enhance the unionist vote. The most important thing, in my opinion, is that the cumulative unionist vote exceeds republicans, nationalists and Alliance.”

SDLP Belfast city councillor Seamas de Faoite said it is important to offer people in the traditionally unionist constituency a nationalist voice and a chance to engage in the conversation about constitutional change.

“And there are an increasing number of people in East Belfast who want to be part of that conversation,” he said.

“We’ve seen in the last 14 years of chaos, and failure and Brexit, and all of the madness that’s come along with that, and they want to look for something different and want to engage in a conversation about better public services, better outcomes for people, and a fairer, more just society.”

Green Party councillor Brian Smyth acknowledged that the first-past-the-post system is “horrible” for smaller parties as he conceded his party could be hit by tactical voting for the main candidates.

But he said the campaign has still been valuable in building the party’s base ahead of the next Assembly election.

“I take a lot of comfort because people are saying ‘any other election, I’d vote for you’,” he said.

“So, I think we’ve got a growing profile in East Belfast. I think the party, despite the difficulties of the last couple of years (Greens lost seats in last Assembly and local council elections), there’s been real growth for the Greens in East Belfast.”

Independent candidate Ryan North makes up the field in East Belfast.

He is aligned to the NI People movement, which describes itself as a “collective of passionate individuals united by a common goal: to forge a brighter, more prosperous future for Northern Ireland” – one that is founded on the pillars of “freedom, community support, and transparent governance”.

Register now for one of the Evening Standard’s newsletters. From a daily news briefing to Homes & Property insights, plus lifestyle, going out, offers and more. For the best stories in your inbox, click here.