Buyer Beware: Five players to be wary of overpaying as UFAs
Part of the fun of NHL free agency is seeing which teams hand out instantly regrettable contracts. Here are five players who could cause a serious case of buyer’s remorse.
All contract projections are courtesy of AFP Analytics.
T.J. Brodie
Position: Right defence
Previous team: Toronto Maple Leafs
Contract projection: Two years, approximately $3.7 million annual cap hit
Once a fixture on the Maple Leafs’ top defence pair, Brodie lost his spot in the lineup by the end of the season, appearing in only one of the team’s seven first-round playoff games.
Many of Brodie’s defensive metrics took a tumble this season. His turnover rate in the defensive zone increased from 11.3 per cent last season to 13.4 per cent. After denying 52.3 per cent of controlled entries last season, he stopped 48.6 per cent this season.
Regarded as one of the league’s best defensive defencemen as recently as a year ago, Brodie has too many red flags.
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Elias Lindholm
Position: Centre
Previous team: Vancouver Canucks
Contract projection: Five years, approximately $6.8 million annual cap hit
This year’s crop of free-agent centres lacks star power, which bodes well for Lindholm’s bank account. It is possible Lindholm gets paid like a No. 1 centre, which he has not been for a few years.
Since losing Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk on his wings after the 2021-22 season, Lindholm has become less and less of a needle-mover. He ranked 107th this season in offence-generating plays per 20 minutes out of 391 forwards who played at least 500 minutes. That is down from two years ago, when he was 61st out of 402 qualified forwards in the same category.
In simple terms, Lindholm has not been doing much to help his team score goals, which is part of being a highly paid centre. (Lindholm had 23 points at 5-on-5 in 75 games this past season — the same amount as Canucks teammate Teddy Blueger, who just signed a two-year contract with a $1.8 million annual cap hit.)
Anthony Mantha
Position: Right wing
Previous team: Vegas Golden Knights
Contract projection: Three years, approximately $4.8 million annual cap hit
Mantha has the tools to be an impactful offensive player, but is frustratingly inconsistent. Case in point: Mantha, who had 20 goals in 56 games with the Washington Capitals before being traded at the deadline, finished with three goals in 21 regular-season and playoff games with the Golden Knights. He was scratched in four of Vegas’ seven post-season games.
Mantha’s true shooting percentage, which accounts for all shot attempts, plummeted from 13.1 per cent with the Capitals to 5.7 per cent with the Golden Knights in the regular season (4.9 per cent when including the playoffs). If Mantha is not scoring, he provides little else.
Ilya Samsonov
Position: Goaltender
Previous team: Toronto Maple Leafs
Contract projection: One year, approximately $2.3 million annual cap hit
Samsonov had a whirlwind season. The Maple Leafs waived their opening-night starter early in the year after he allowed 18 goals above expected (1.36 per 60 minutes) through 15 games. Samsonov bounced back down the stretch, going 18-3-1 with a 2.43 goals-against average and .915 save percentage. But he faltered in the playoffs, losing the net to Joseph Woll.
That kind of volatility makes it hard to trust Samsonov. At 27, he is still young enough to find a groove, but the team that signs him better have a backup plan.
Nikita Zadorov
Position: Left defence
Previous team: Vancouver Canucks
Contract projection: Five years, approximately $5.3 million annual cap hit
The monstrous defender did exactly what a player on an expiring deal should do: elevate his game in the playoffs. Zadorov made his presence felt over two rounds, recording eight points and averaging 20:09 of ice time per game — up from 17:04 in 54 games with the Canucks following an early-season trade from the Calgary Flames.
It is important, however, to keep things in perspective. Zadorov is not a natural point producer (career 0.23 per game average over 11 seasons) and is probably best suited for the type of third-pairing role he played for the Canucks.
General managers go gaga for the size (6-foot-6, 248 pounds) and snarl that Zadorov possesses. He is bound to be overpaid.
All numbers via Sportlogiq
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