Bitcoin blues could extend into July but outlook for the second half is upbeat

Bitcoin's blues could linger throughout July, but investors are still optimistic about the cryptocurrency in the second half of the year. The cryptocurrency has yet to break out of the tight range it's been stuck in – between $60,000 and $70,000 – since March. This week it fell to the lower end of that range and is now on pace to finish June down 10%, according to Coin Metrics. That would make it its worst month since April and second down month in three. July is usually a strong month for bitcoin, which has finished higher for the month in seven of the last 11 years, according to CoinGlass. At $61,000, bitcoin has key support at the $67,000 level, chart analysts say , although a breach below that could be "damaging." Investors are worried about the cryptocurrency taking another leg down due to the supply overhang heading into July. "The Bitcoin halving was a known positive supply event for the market for this year – we have less bitcoin being produced," said Zach Pandl, managing director of research at Grayscale Investments. "There are always other known potential sources of bitcoin supply from government for example, but it's always uncertain when that's coming to market. To some extent, the supply that is being liquidated by things like government agencies is partly negating the positive effects over the short run of the Bitcoin having." This week, the crypto market was startled when the U.S. and German governments sent large amounts of previously seized bitcoin to exchanges, according to CryptoQuant. Additionally, the trustee of the now defunct Mt. Gox exchange announced it will begin repayments to creditors – 142,000 bitcoins worth $9 billion in today's prices – starting in July. Some investors are concerned that creditors may sell some of that bitcoin in July, after waiting more than 10 years for a resolution with the exchange. "This fear is justified given the recent behavior of Gemini creditors which are assumed to have liquidated part of the crypto assets received in recent weeks; in particular, almost $2 billion of crypto assets returned to 232,000 retail customers by bankrupt crypto lender Genesis and crypto exchange Gemini," JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note this week. "A similar downside risk looms in July with Mt. Gox creditors," he added. "Assuming most of the liquidations by [them] take place in July, this creates a trajectory where crypto prices come under further pressure in July, but start rebounding from August onwards." BTC.CM= 1M mountain Bitcoin's return to $60,000 Bitcoin is still solidly in a bull market, however, despite recent and potentially near-term sluggishness, and market participants are expecting the cryptocurrency will retest its March all-time high of about $73,000 by the end of the year. If the market gets another low CPI print, a Federal Reserve rate cut at the central bank's September meeting would become the base case for many macro investors, he said. Bitcoin, along with other risk assets, tends to rise with expectations for rate cuts. The next look at the cosumer price index is scheduled for July 11. U.S. presidential election campaign messaging about the U.S. dollar – which moves inversely to bitcoin – could also catalyze the next leg higher, Pandl said. "We don't know what candidate Trump's views are on the U.S. dollar," Pandl said. "Trump expresses a view that he would like to see smaller U.S. trade deficits, but so far, has mostly focused on the need for tariffs." "It's possible that during the election campaign, Trump may introduce the idea that we need a weaker dollar," he added. "Those two things in combination would be positive for bitcoin: Fed rate cuts and one of the two presidential candidates talking about dollar weakness." Marion Laboure, senior strategist at Deutsche Bank Research, said growing demand for crypto ETFs will help keep bitcoin's price "elevated" in the months ahead. Initial filings known as 19b-4s for ether ETFs were approved in May and the funds themselves are in the process of getting S-1 registration approvals — which are expected to come through in the coming weeks. This week, VanEck and ARK 21Shares also filed for what would be the first spot Solana ETFs. "There is a lot of uncertainty in the market, but I'm pretty optimistic," she said. "I wouldn't be surprised if we have more ETFs approved as well. If we have a clearer institutional framework, we will have more ETFs. ... We are moving towards more democratization, more institutionalization of ETFs." —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.