Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Hit New High

Former President Donald Trump participates in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on Thursday in Atlanta, Georgia. As of Monday, Trump has a 73-in-100 chance of winning the presidential election this year.

Former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election have hit a new high, according to one forecast model.

As of Monday, Trump has a 73 out of 100 chance of beating President Joe Biden in a rematch this November, The Economist's forecast model shows. It is one of the highest chances of Trump winning since forecasters began predicting the outcome of the election in March.

Trump's chance of winning had hovered between the high 50's and low 60's between March and June but began a steady uptick last month. His chances crawled up to 72 out of 100 on June 16 and, by the end of the month, Trump had a 74 out of 100 chance of winning the election. That figure dropped by one point on July 1.

The last two days have also been a historic low in the model for Trump's opponent. Biden is seeing his worst forecast since March. The Democrat's chances of winning bounced around the low to mid 40's throughout March and June, but took a dive last month, falling into the 30's and hitting the high 20's at some points. Biden was recorded as having a 26 in 100 chance of winning on both June 30 and July 1.

The trend reflects the Democratic Party's growing concerns about their incumbent's candidacy, who has faced question marks after his performance at last week's debate, prompting continued criticisms about his age. In the wake of the debate, numerous reports have suggested that many within the party are suggesting Biden step aside so that a younger candidate could take his place. The president has not made any indication that he will exit the race.

In order to take the White House, a presidential candidate needs to win 270 electoral college votes and the forecasters currently predict Trump will win 308 to Biden's 230.

The Economist's model suggests that it's critical for Biden to win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. For example, without Michigan, Biden has a 5-in-100 shot of winning reelection.

Without Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, his chance of winning is 7-in-100. But even without Georgia, which is the least influential swing state for Biden, the Democrat would only have an 18-in-100 chance of winning. Without Nevada or Arizona, Biden's chances float between 14- to 16-in-100.

Trump, on the other hand, will need Pennsylvania much more than the others. Without the Keystone State, he has a 23-in-100 chance of winning, still significantly higher than Biden's chances. His chances of winning without Michigan or Wisconsin sit between 33- and 34-in-100, and without Arizona, Georgia or Nevada range between 40- to 51-in-100.

A poll released by The New York Times/Siena College last week showed Trump ahead in all five battleground states. The presumptive Republican nominee leads Wisconsin by 1 percentage point, Michigan and Pennsylvania by 2 percent, Nevada by 4 percent and Georgia and Arizona by 5 percent.

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