First Presidential Debate Takeaways

For all of the talk in the immediate after aftermath about Democratic panic, this idea that perhaps someone else would need to be the nominee, it does now seem that many Democrats are lining up to show their support for Joe Biden, including former President Bill Clinton, who just posted on X Facts in History Matter. Joe Biden has given us three years of solid leadership. We heard something similar as well from former President Obama earlier today. Yeah, What you're saying is they're circling the wagons, essentially, right? So for the Biden campaign, they're casting this as a benefit for them somewhat of a win, not a win in the debate, but a win that they have a still have the, the confidence of the party's leadership. But make no mistake about it, the 1st 2 lines of Barack Obama's statement was it was a bad debate, right? There's this realization that the, that the president performed, I mean, really poorly. Though his comments in North Carolina started out with an anecdote from first lady Jill Biden saying that he proposed to her five times, a way to kind of signal his tenacity. Some of his concluding comments talked about him knowing how to get up from the mad. So that, excuse me, acknowledges a knockout in some ways, a knockout that's pretty tough. The analysis is tough, even, as you're pointing out, from allies of the president. What makes the campaign, though, think this would be any different in September when they meet again? Why should Americans think it would be any different four years from now if he's reelected? And that's a great question because as much as he's getting the support publicly from some of the party's nominaries, there's still no signs yet that that's done enough to essentially quell some of the anxiety, right? We were at A5 alarm fire from what we saw last night, speaking with sources both last night and then this morning as well. Whether or not Barack Obama or Bill Clinton come out with public support versus what Americans and Democrats in particular saw with their own eyes last night with some of the exit polling showed where his numbers, the the, the numbers in which they trust him to run the country from Democrats dropped from about the mid these to the mid 30s right overnight. Whether or not that's been enough to shore up the base is another story. So how long do they, and by they, I really mean President Biden and those close to him have to realistically change their minds? Is it right up until the convention in August where they could re evaluate whether they should continue with this re election campaign or is that actually a decision if it is to be made that would come much sooner than that? Well, a couple of things, right? So we're in the fourth quarter. There's no doubt about that right now, right leading up to the convention will probably be that's what's been posited in the public sphere is the most likely situation. Even still, based off of our reporting, just speaking with experts as well, it would it would be a tough thing to pull off at this point. I mean, Biden won the primaries. He has the delegates. Who do you pass the torch to? What are some of the systemic things that you do? Some of the ballots are starting to be printed right now, right? We're on the cusp of early voting. So whether or not you can kind of turn this airplane around that quickly, that's not an easy feat. Mario, thank you for the insights. Bloomberg's Mario Parker this day after the debate and for more on how the outcome of last night's debate could impact congressional races. We're certainly hearing a bit from Capitol Hill. We turn now to Bloomberg's Megan Scully, who leads our congressional coverage. After the debate, we heard from Claire McCaskill, among others. This was instant analysis as she talked about Joe Biden's performance. He had one thing to accomplish, she said. That was to reassure America that he was up to the job at his age, and he failed at that tonight. Are we going to see a split here among Democrats? Because to Mario's point, some are trying to circle the wagons here. How about the rest? We're not seeing it quite yet, but we certainly are seeing some hesitation on the part of Democrats on Capitol Hill today. James Clyburn, the 83 year old Dean of the South Carolina delegation, who who's credited with with getting Biden the presidency with that win in in 2020 in South Carolina, actually ran from the press. He didn't want to talk about it. He did later come back and talk to reporters. But what were you see, what we were hearing on the Hill today was a very tepid response. They were going after Trump rather than certainly not congratulating Biden on on the night. And and you did see some in difficult districts and states acknowledging head on that it was a horrible night in the words of Angie Craig, a Democrat who is is up for in a tough reelection battle for her seat. Well, so it does raise the question of of what the tail effect is here. If Joe Biden is seen as a weaker Democratic nominee, if that influences the way that voters may be looking down the ballot in especially some of these more contentious districts. Is messaging from congressional campaigns going to have to change around that potentially the idea that Donald Trump is likely to win. So vote for us and keep us in check so we can provide that check in Congress. I think that it is particularly difficult for the Senate candidates and the statewide races where you're talking about mobilizing the vote in cities like like Philadelphia or Phoenix and and getting out the vote for the person at the top of the ticket, Biden. And having, you know, Sherrod Brown or Bob Casey and other Democrats who are in these really tough fights statewide, you know, sort of carry along in the president's coattails. Enthusiasm in these urban areas is already really low for the president and that is already worrisome to particularly to the statewide candidates after last night. Enthusiasm certainly is not going up in those areas. And and may we'll see if it can recover. But where we are right now, if I were a senator, particularly running in some of these swing states, I'd be very concerned.