Immigration and housing crisis key issues in upcoming election, opposition proposes migration cuts
Let's investigate whether Australia's housing crisis is due to immigration. The past four decades, 6.4 million people migrated to Australia, an average of 160,000 a year. Now, as it happens, there were exactly 6.4 million houses and apartments built in those same 40 years. So long term that looks fine, but there's more to it than that. Housing completions are fairly consistent, but immigration is more volatile. The last two years we've seen a million people arrive, which is twice what was needed to make up for the COVID gap. And then there's natural increase, birth minus deaths and the births of matter happened 25 years ago because that's the age at which people start looking for a house. So here's my graph of the total number of people looking for a house each year back to 1983. It adds up to 10.7 million / 4 decades. And then you need to divide it by two to get housing demand since it's roughly two people per house. And when I subtract that from annual housing completions. I get this, there are two periods of deficit, 2006 to 2014 and the past two years. But the market is mostly in surplus and the total surplus over 40 years is close to a million dwellings. So there's obviously more to the housing problem than population growth, and cutting immigration alone won't solve it. For example, there's the lowest housing approvals in a decade. Nimbyism, the absence of social housing tax breaks for investors. Easy loans sold on Commission, Airbnb robbing the long term rental market? You've got to tackle them all.